NFL Playoffs Kickoff: Ranking the Wild Card Slate Top to Bottom

The NFL playoffs are here with a full six-game slate across a three-day Wild Card Weekend. There are massive storylines, key matchups and players to watch. Let's dive into all of it, ranking the games from best to worst and breaking down everything NFL fans need to know. 

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun 1 p.m. ET (CBS) 

There's no doubt this is the best matchup of the weekend and the game I'm most excited to watch. If I had told you in preseason that the Bills and Jaguars would be meeting in the 3/6 matchup in the Wild Card round, you might have believed me. But you also likely would have assumed the Bills were the 3-seed and the Jags were the 6-seed. 

However, it's the 13-win, AFC South champion Jaguars hosting the Bills on Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville. I was hard on Trevor Lawrence earlier this season and, to be honest, I'm still not sold on him. I think head coach Liam Coen deserves a ton of credit for giving Lawrence an offensive system that maximizes his skill set and helps limit his mistakes. Recall that Baker Mayfield had his best professional season with Coen as his offensive coordinator last year in Tampa Bay (Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns). 

The Bills are an interesting team. Of course, they have Josh Allen, and he gives them a chance to win any game. But there is a lack of playmaking options outside Allen and running back James Cook. Keon Coleman hasn't developed into a reliable receiver as the team had hoped and no one has replaced the production after losing Stefon Diggs. Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving with just 719 yards. 

The Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen are slight road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars for NFL Wild Card Weekend. 

(Mark Konezny/Imagn Images)

There are questions about the defense, which allowed 30 or more points five times this season. Interestingly enough, the Bills are 4-1 when their opponent scores 30 points because Allen thrives in a shootout environment. The Bills scored fewer than 21 points five times this year, and those games account for all five losses. 

This makes for an interesting clash of styles, because Jacksonville ranks No. 8 in the NFL, allowing opponents to score an average of 19.8 points per game. Oddsmakers installed the Bills as slight road favorites (-1.5) and they expect a high-scoring affair (over/under 51.5, highest of any Wild Card game). 

Ultimately, I think the Bills' postseason experience and Buffalo's massive advantage at the quarterback position give them the edge needed to advance to the divisional round for the sixth straight season. 

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles | Sun 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox) 

While Bills-Jaguars might be the most interesting game on the slate, Eagles-49ers should draw the most intrigue (and, consequently, the highest TV ratings). Here we have two classic NFL franchises with massive fan bases squaring off in an ideal time slot. 

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan deserves a lot of credit for leading his MASH unit to a 12-win season and coming within one victory of clinching the top seed in the NFC. But the injuries are mounting on San Francisco, particularly on defense, and that's going to be tough to overcome against the Eagles. 

For Philadelphia, they probably couldn't have asked for a better Wild Card matchup. The offense has been up-and-down all season and scored fewer than 20 points in nearly half of the team's games (eight games with 19 or fewer points). While the 49ers held the Seahawks to just 13 points in the regular season finale, their defense gave up 38 points to the Bears, 27 points to the Colts (with 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback), and 24 points to the Tennessee Titans (third-worst offense in the NFL). 

San Francisco is without its two best defensive players, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, plus first-round pick Mykel Williams. To make matters worse, two starting linebackers – Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune – suffered injuries in the regular-season finale and could potentially miss this game. 

Perhaps the biggest injury concern, though, is stalwart left tackle Trent Williams, who missed the Seattle game with an ankle injury. If Williams can't go, it's a huge blow to an offense that scored just three points without him against the Seahawks. 

I wouldn't count out Shanahan's bunch, but the injuries might be a bit too much to overcome in this one. 

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears | Sat 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

I'm somewhat surprised the NFL awarded this matchup to Prime Video, the only streaming-only network to receive a Wild Card game. Bears-Packers is one of the oldest and best rivalries in football and both teams feature exciting young quarterbacks in Caleb Williams and Jordan Love. 

We've seen this matchup twice this season, with the two teams splitting the regular-season matchups. It should have been a sweep for the Packers, but the Bears scored 10 points in the final two minutes (including an onside kick recovery) and won in overtime when the teams met in Chicago in Week 16. 

The Packers had the advantage of resting their starters in Week 18 with their playoff position locked in, while the Bears elected to go for the No. 2 seed in the NFC but still lost to the Detroit Lions in a physically demanding battle won on a last-second field goal. 

I do think that matters in this one, especially since this is a slightly shortened week for both teams. DraftKings has the Bears as very slight favorites (ML -112) at home, but clearly, oddsmakers are concerned about Chicago. 

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams took a step forward in his second NFL season, but it remains to be seen how he'll respond to playing in his first postseason game. 

(David Banks/Imagn Images)

Ben Johnson is a legitimate contender for Coach of the Year, and his offense – like Coen with Lawrence – has allowed Williams to thrive in his second season. However, I have my concerns about the former USC signal-caller. He still makes awful mistakes that put his team in bad spots. 

To me, this game comes down to which quarterback limits the turnovers. The Packers were 2-4-1 in games where Love had at least one giveaway. He only had one game with multiple turnovers (two interceptions in a loss against Denver). While Williams has nine fumbles this season, he has only lost one. That's a bit of good fortune, but he needs to be more protective of the football in the playoffs. 

Yes, Williams only had eight turnovers this season (no multi-turnover games), but Pro Football Focus lists Williams as making 19 turnover-worthy plays, ranking 28th in the league. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards, but completed less than 60% of his passes. In his first career NFL playoff game, nerves are going to be high and mistakes magnified. I trust Love more than Williams, but it certainly helps that Green Bay doesn't have Micah Parsons, who would have made life a lot tougher on Williams. 

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots | Sun 8 p.m. ET (NBC)

I considered ranking this game higher because I find the matchup highly fascinating. No one expected the Patriots to win 14 games, a ridiculous 10-win improvement from 2024. Yes, the team benefited from playing an easy schedule thanks to its last-place AFC East finish last season. Still, 14 wins are 14 wins. It's even more impressive when considering the team started 1-2 before going 13-1 over the final 14 games (only losing to Buffalo in Week 15). 

New England only played four games in the regular season against playoff teams. One of those games was against the 8-9 Carolina Panthers (win), another came against the 10-7 Steelers (loss), and two came against the Bills (one win, one loss). Three of those games were played in Weeks 1–5, so the team hasn't been tested late in the season. 

The Chargers have had a strange season. They won their first three games (including wins over divisional rivals Kansas City and Denver) before inexplicably losing in back-to-back games to the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. They enter the game more tested than the Patriots (six games against playoff teams, including five since Week 10) and more rested (Los Angeles sat its starters in Week 18). 

Ultimately, this one could go either way. Both teams have terrific quarterbacks and top-tier head coaches. I'll lean toward New England due to the home-field advantage, with the Chargers having to fly across the country and play in colder temperatures than they're used to playing in. 

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers | Mon 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

While this game is packed with storylines, obviously the main one being whether this could be Aaron Rodgers' final NFL game, I'm not very excited to watch it. Neither of these teams boasts a particularly good or fun offense and the Houston Texans have arguably the league's best defense. With T.J. Watt back, the Steelers' defense isn't bad, either. 

All those factors considered, oddsmakers put the over/under on this game at just 39.5 points, the lowest of the weekend. Plus, we're going to have to listen to Joe Buck and Troy Aikman (both of whom I really like) talk about Rodgers constantly for three hours. It's not their fault, it's what any broadcaster would do in this situation. But it doesn't mean I'm excited to listen to it all night. 

Could Aaron Rodgers be playing in his final NFL game on Monday night? 

(Barry Reeger/Imagn Images)

Houston is the second-biggest road favorite of the Wild Card round (-3.5), but the line is under four points. In other words, Vegas expects a low-scoring, tightly-contested game. That's fine, but again, it doesn't scream entertainment. I'd have this as the worst game of the weekend but… 

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers | Sat 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

… but there's this game. Yes, the Panthers beat the Rams when these teams met in Charlotte in Week 13. But that was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come. Oddsmakers agree, with the Rams as a massive road favorite (-10.5). The Panthers limped into the postseason after that win over the Rams. They lost three of their last four games, including what should have been a win-or-go-home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18. 

However, Carolina won the NFC South thanks to a three-way tiebreaker after the Atlanta Falcons won in Week 18 over the New Orleans Saints to give the Falcons, Bucs and Panthers matching 8-9 records. The Panthers went 2-5 in games against teams that made the postseason, beating the Rams and Packers while losing to the Jaguars, Patriots, Bills, 49ers and Seahawks. 

The Rams won 12 games despite playing the hardest schedule in the NFL, according to TeamRankings. Los Angeles went 4-4 in games against playoff teams, but that doesn't tell the full story. They had a controversial overtime loss to the Seahawks, aided by a strange 2-point conversion ruling by referees. In addition, they had a wild loss to the Eagles when the Rams had a potential game-winning 44-yard field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown in the final seconds. In other words, Los Angeles could easily be 14-3 and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Instead, they have to go on the road against an 8-9 NFC South champion, which seems quite unfair. Oh well, such is life. But I expect the Rams to put a whooping on the woefully overmatched Panthers.