Trevor Lawrence Probably Isn't 'The Guy'

When the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they thought he was a franchise quarterback with the ability to lead the team to consistent contention in the AFC. But that hasn't happened. 

To be fair to Lawrence, he wasn't set up to succeed early in his career. In conjunction with the Lawrence pick, the team hired Urban Meyer as head coach prior to the 2021 NFL season. Meyer didn't make it through one full season, as the team fired him after a 2-11 start. Jacksonville then hired Doug Pederson, who helped lead the team to a playoff victory in his first season. 

Trevor Lawrence hasn't lived up to the billing of a No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. 

(Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

But they moved on from Pederson after a 4-13 record in 2024, his third year with the team. Then they hired Liam Coen, meaning Lawrence would have to learn his third new offense in his fifth NFL season. Not ideal for a young quarterback. 

However, great quarterbacks tend to overcome issues with coaching and lack of talent around them simply because of their talent. They elevate everyone around them and can help hide problems within a team. 

Lawrence hasn't done that. Far from it, in fact. 

Jaguars' Record Hides Obvious Problems

With a comeback win in Week 12 over the Arizona Cardinals, the Jaguars improved to a 7-4 record and find themselves right in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. In fact, they are currently tied with the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers for the No. 5 seed in the AFC. 

But focusing only on the team's record and ignoring Lawrence's obvious limitations is a mistake. The team beat the Cardinals in spite of Lawrence, not because of him. Yes, he led the team on a go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter and a go-ahead field goal drive in overtime. But we shouldn't ignore why Jacksonville needed it in the first place. 

Lawrence turned the ball over four times, including one that ended up in a Cardinals defensive touchdown. He threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. All the turnovers were avoidable, and two came in situations where NFL quarterbacks have to protect the football. The fifth-year quarterback fumbled inside his own 5 and threw an interception in a goal-to-go situation. 

Often interceptions arise from poor pass protection. Pressure on the quarterback is one of the best ways to force turnovers. But watch those three picks. Lawrence wasn't under any duress. Like, at all. On any of them. 

All three interceptions were the result of poor throws, bad reads, or both. These are the types of plays that veteran quarterbacks cannot make. 

Should Jaguars Look to Replace Lawrence? 

Despite Jacksonville's impressive record, Lawrence entered Week 12 completing just 58.6% of his passes. That represents his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season. Players should get better as they get comfortable in the NFL, not worse. 

Lawrence has accounted for 19 touchdowns this season (14 passing and five rushing), but also has committed 14 turnovers (11 interceptions, three lost fumbles). He's tied for most turnovers in the NFL with Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Sam Darnold and Tua Tagovailoa. That's not exactly elite company. 

Smith and Darnold are journeymen quarterbacks. Flacco is 40 years old. Only Tagovailoa has the pedigree of Lawrence, and there are plenty of people calling for the Dolphins to move on from their young quarterback. 

So where are the calls for the Jags to move on from Lawrence? He's a career 63% passer with 57 interceptions and 24 lost fumbles. He has nearly as many turnovers (81) as touchdown passes (83) in his career. 

Those are not the numbers of a franchise quarterback. They aren't even the numbers of a starting quarterback. 

It's time to have a real conversation about Trevor Lawrence as a viable starter in the league.