NFL Contender Or Pretender: AFC Edition

The NFL season is flying by, with Week 6 already in the books. As OutKick's Armando Salguero pointed out in a recent column, there are no "Super Teams" in the league this season. That means that many teams — especially those that no one saw coming — have an opportunity to make a move come January. 

But who's for real, and who's just off to a great start but set to fade into mediocrity as the season rolls along? That's what we're here to find out…

AFC Contenders and Pretenders 

Indianapolis Colts (5-1)

Yes, I'm buying the Colts as legitimate contenders. I understand the counterargument that they haven't played anyone. That's true. The combined record of the five teams the Colts have beaten is 10-20, with the Broncos representing the only win against a team with a winning record. The other team they played with a winning record, the Rams, beat the Colts 27-20. 

However, the Colts have done what they were supposed to do — blow out bad teams. They beat the Dolphins by 25, the Titans by 21, and the Raiders by 34. They've also shown they can win close games, with victories over the Broncos and Cardinals (who are better than their 2-4 record implies). 

It's time to start taking Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts seriously in the AFC.

(Imagn Images)

It's fair to question whether the Colts can keep up their level of play, particularly as the competition becomes more difficult. Over the next six weeks, they play the Chargers, Chiefs and Steelers. We'll certainly know more about this team after that stretch. For now, though, they are contenders in the AFC. 

Verdict: CONTENDER 

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)

Much like the Colts, the Steelers' schedule plays a role in their current record. Pittsburgh has two wins against teams with winning records, the Patriots and Vikings, but Minnesota started Carson Wentz at quarterback in that game. The win over the Patriots is nice, but — spoiler alert — I have the Patriots as pretenders. Their other wins came over the Jets and Browns. I don't think we need to explain why those aren't impressive victories. 

Still, like the Colts, the Steelers have handled their business through the early part of the season. And, like the Colts, we're going to learn a lot about the Steelers in the near future. After a Thursday night matchup against the Bengals in Week 7, Pittsburgh faces the Packers, Colts and Chargers in consecutive weeks. I'm inclined to call the Steelers a contender, if for no other reason than playing in the currently-struggling AFC North. 

Verdict: CONTENDER 

Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Injuries have hit the Bills hard, particularly on defense. They went from looking like the best team in the NFL to looking like an average team after back-to-back losses to the Patriots and Falcons. Full disclosure: I planned to write this article before Buffalo played on Monday Night Football against Atlanta. I wasn't even going to include them because it seemed too obvious that they were contenders. 

One game hasn't changed my mind, though. The Bills are the favorite to win the AFC, and they should be. These past two games have been nothing but small hiccups in a long season. 

Verdict: CONTENDER 

New England Patriots (4-2)

My, how quickly people forget that the Patriots lost to the Raiders in Week 1. Las Vegas lost four games in a row after that victory, and only snapped the streak by beating the winless Titans in Week 6. The Patriots beat the Bills, so that is considered enough to wash the stink of that Raiders loss off them. 

Beyond that Buffalo win, though, New England hasn't done anything impressive. They beat the Dolphins, Panthers and Saints – three of the worst teams in the NFL. They blew out the Panthers, but squeaked by both the Dolphins and Saints. 

Drake Maye looks good, but the level of competition has something to do with that. This isn't to take anything away from Maye, who has taken a step forward in his sophomore NFL season. And Mike Vrabel is getting the most out of a roster lacking elite talent. 

I'm not ready to buy the New England Patriots and quarterback Drake Maye just yet. 

(Brian Fluharty/Imagn Images)

That being said, there's a reason this was expected to be a rebuilding year for New England. With Maye and Vrabel, the Patriots figure to have a very quick rebuild. But it's not coming this season, even if the Patriots sneak into the playoffs thanks to a soft schedule. 

Verdict: PRETENDER 

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)

While the Patriots' 4-2 start is slightly misleading, the Jaguars' 4-2 start is extremely misleading. Yes, they beat the 49ers and Chiefs. Good wins, to be sure. But the Chiefs outgained the Jaguars by over 150 yards. Kansas City lost because it committed 13 penalties for 109 yards (while Jacksonville had 4 penalties for 25 yards). 

A deeper look into the win over San Francisco shows that the 49ers also significantly outgained the Jaguars, but lost the turnover battle, 4-0. It's actually a testament to San Francisco that they posted a -4 turnover margin and only lost the game by five points. The Jags also beat the Texans and Panthers and lost to the mostly Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Plus, they looked bad in Week 6 against Seattle. 

I'm not buying the Jaguars. 

Verdict: PRETENDER 

Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

Like the Bills, the Chargers burst out of the gates and started the season 3-0. But back-to-back losses against the Giants and Commanders, followed by a near-loss to the Dolphins, have people questioning Jim Harbaugh's squad. I'm not one of them. 

The Chargers rank in the top 10 of the NFL in both yards gained per game and yards allowed per game. The loss to the Giants isn't great, but it looks better after New York beat Philadelphia in Week 6. 

Verdict: CONTENDER 

Denver Broncos (4-2)

I've said it many times, but I'll repeat it again: Sean Payton is the most overrated coach in the NFL. He rode Drew Brees to stardom and a Super Bowl victory, and he hasn't been successful in the NFL since before coaches had ever heard the term RPO. 

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Bo Nix are both overrated. 

(Imagn Images)

The offensive genius, Payton, has a team that ranks 20th in the league in points scored despite facing Tennessee, Cincinnati and the New York Jets – all of which rank in the bottom eight of the NFL in points allowed. Payton is very nice to the media, so they’re kind to him in return. Once the Broncos beat the Eagles, I knew the train was off the tracks and everyone would gather to anoint Payton and the Broncos. 

But the truth is that they barely beat the Titans and nearly lost to the Jets. Their schedule is fairly soft, so they might make the playoffs. But they are not a team that anyone in the AFC would mind seeing in January. 

Verdict: PRETENDER 

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)

I wasn't ready to crucify the Chiefs after their 0-2 start, so I'm not going to start now. They've battled injuries, much like the Bills, but the offense is starting to come around. Rashee Rice returns in Week 7, which gives Patrick Mahomes a weapon he desperately needs. They might not be the same dominant team as in previous years, but they're going to be in the mix for an AFC Championship once again. 

Verdict: CONTENDER 

Houston Texans (2-3)

It's looking more and more like C.J. Stroud's rookie season was more of an anomaly than the norm. He hasn't looked the same since, and the team has gone down with him. The team's two wins came against Tennessee and a Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens. They've struggled to score points against every decent defense they've faced. With Seattle and San Francisco up next, this is a team that's staring a 2-5 start in the face. While some teams could recover from that (like the one we're about to discuss), Houston cannot. 

Verdict: PRETENDER 

Baltimore Ravens (1-5)

Call me crazy, but I'm not giving up on Baltimore. If anyone wants to sell his stock now, I'll buy it. They've played a ridiculously difficult early-season schedule and haven't had Lamar Jackson the past two weeks. They have a bye in Week 7, which comes at the perfect time. Jackson should return for Week 8 and the Ravens' next six games are as follows: Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals. Does anyone think they can't win all of those games and head into a Week 14 showdown against the Steelers at 7-5? 

Don't count this team out just yet. 

Verdict: CONTENDER