2026 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: Midwest Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
Our Midwest Region guide highlights the safest bets, contrarian sleepers, and bust candidates to target as you fill out your 2026 March Madness bracket.
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East region, then we hit the South region, moved on to the West region, and now we finish with the Midwest, headlined by the tournament's #3 overall seed, Michigan.
Most Likely Final Four Team: #2 Iowa State Cyclones
Let's get this out of the way: Michigan is very good. But they have not looked the same since the loss of guard L.J. Cason to a season-ending injury. Couple that with forward Yaxel Lendeborg suffering a rolled ankle in the Big Ten Tournament championship game and the Wolverines have some injury issues (Lendeborg is expected to play, but a rolled ankle can easily recur).
With that in mind, I'll back the Cyclones to come out of the Midwest region. The Big Ten received all the hype this year as the best conference in college basketball, but the Big 12 had the strongest trio at the top (Arizona, Houston and Iowa State). Iowa State nearly defeated Arizona in the Big 12 semifinals, but Jaden Bradley hit a game-winning buzzer-beater. And the Cyclones boast several impressive wins this season over St. John's, Purdue, Kansas, Texas Tech and Houston.
Iowa State is a threat to cut down the nets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
(Jeffrey Becker/Imagn Images)
I like Iowa State's path, too. The #3 seed in the region, Virginia, is the worst #3 seed in the field, according to KenPom. The only other Top 10 team in the region is Michigan, which has injury issues. So, yeah, give me Iowa State.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #6 Tennessee Volunteers
As mentioned, the #3 seed, Virginia, is the worst #3 seed in the entire tournament, and they are Tennessee's likely Round of 32 opponent. In fact, according to KenPom, Virginia is barely better than Tennessee (13th vs. 16th). And everything I wrote about Iowa State applies to Tennessee. The region is very winnable because all the other teams (except Iowa State) have major issues.
The #4 seed, Alabama, is dealing with its second-leading scorer being off the team following a drug arrest. The #5 seed, Texas Tech, lost its best player (JT Toppin) to a season-ending injury last month. I'm of the opinion that the winner of the Tennessee/Iowa State Sweet 16 matchup reaches the Final Four.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #3 Virginia Cavaliers AND #4 Alabama Crimson Tide
This is such a strange region, as mentioned, because there are problems for most of the teams. That's why I'm going to say that if you're looking for carnage in your bracket pool, the Midwest is the one to target. Based on my Tennessee pick, you could probably guess I would say Virginia is a strong candidate to lose during the tournament's first weekend.
And with everything Alabama is dealing with, it's easy to see them tripping up in the Round of 64 or Round of 32, as well. The Tide did catch a break by likely drawing a very vulnerable Texas Tech (thanks to the Toppin injury) in the second round, but the Red Raiders are still a good team without their best player. Tech beat Iowa State, on the road, without Toppin, so it can definitely win big games without him.
First-Round Upset Alert: #10 Santa Clara over #7 Kentucky
I told you to expect carnage in this region, so let's keep it rolling! Kentucky just did not impress me this season, and the Wildcats are such a hot-and-cold team that it's easy to envision them coming out flat in the Round of 64 against a solid Santa Clara squad. Santa Clara is the highest-rated #10 seed in the tournament, according to KenPom, and Kentucky is the second-worst #7 seed. That's a perfect recipe for a first-round upset.
Player To Watch: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State
Labaron Philon Jr. is probably the best player in the region, but since I'm predicting Alabama to struggle to make the second weekend, I'm going to spotlight Jefferson instead.
Jefferson, along with Milan Momcilovic, forms one of the best frontcourt duos in the entire NCAA Tournament. And while Momcilovic is the team's leading scorer (17.1 points/game to Jefferson's 16.9), it's Jefferson that's the more dynamic player and potential lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Jefferson is a well-rounded player who leads Iowa State in rebounding (7.6 rebounds/game) and is second in assists (4.9 assists/game).
He's also a solid shooter for a 6'9" forward (35% 3PT and 70% FT) and, as a senior, brings experience to the team. The key for Jefferson is staying out of foul trouble. He's fouled out twice this season and has picked up at least four fouls in 10 different games. As good as Jefferson is, he can't help much if he's sitting on the bench due to picking up too many fouls. But when he's on the court, he makes Iowa State one of the best teams in the NCAA Tournament.