2026 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: South Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
Our South Region guide highlights the safest bets, contrarian sleepers, and bust candidates to target as you fill out your 2026 March Madness bracket.
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East region, then we hit the West region, and now we turn our attention to the South region, which is headlined by the tournament's #4 overall seed and defending champion, Florida.
Most Likely Final Four Team: #2 Houston Cougars
OK, technically the answer is the #1 Florida Gators if you look at KenPom ratings or betting odds. But it's actually quite close and much closer than the other regions (where the #1 seed is much more highly rated than the rest of the teams). So, I'm going with Houston, which desperately wants revenge for last season's national championship loss to Florida.
The Cougars feature an under-the-radar freshman in Kingston Flemings, who leads the team in scoring (16.4 points/game). But the team also has two very solid upperclassmen guards, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, both of whom returned from last year's NCAA runner-up squad. Plus, they returned forward Joseph Tugler to go with the addition of freshman forward Chris Cenac Jr.
Houston's balance of youth and experience gives them an advantage heading into this year's NCAA Tournament.
Houston Cougars freshman guard Kingston Flemings leads the team in scoring and gives them an added threat that the team didn't have last season.
(Thomas Shea/Imagn Images)
The Cougars are also very healthy, something that not all top teams are at this time of the season. Finally, the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games in this region are going to be held in Houston, which is obviously a major advantage for the Cougars.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #5 Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt made a somewhat surprising run to the SEC Tournament championship game that included a smefinal upset over Florida, the #1 team in this region, before falling to Arkansas in the final. Some felt that Vandy deserved a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they're probably right; the selection committee certainly didn't do the Commodores any favors here.
McNeese will be a popular upset pick as the classic #12 seed over #5 seed, especially after pulling off the 12-5 upset last year over Clemson. And they can definitely upset Vanderbilt. If Vandy survives that early test, they're likely to get Nebraska in the Round of 32. The Cornhuskers are the highest-rated #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to KenPom.
So, why do I like Vanderbilt? Because they're the highest-rated #5 seed in the tournament and are actually rated higher than Nebraska. The dangerous teams in this region are Illinois and Houston, but they're in the bottom half of the draw and wouldn't face Vanderbilt until the Elite 8.
If Vanderbilt makes it to Florida, that's a team they know they can beat. After all, Vandy smoked the Gators by 17 in the SEC Tournament. Essentially, the Commodores are positioned well to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #4 Nebraska Cornhuskers
This one is obvious for all the reasons I gave above about Vanderbilt. I simply think Vandy beats Nebraska in the Round of 32. Also, I don't see a scenario where either Illinois or Houston doesn't make it to the second weekend. Many people are talking about the East region as being the most difficult, but the South features three teams in KenPom's Top 10 (Florida, Illinois, and Houston) plus an underseeded Vanderbilt that probably deserved a #3 seed.
In fact, here's a crazy KenPom stat: Houston is the top-rated #2 seed in the entire tournament, Illinois is the top-rated #3 seed, Nebraska is the top #4 seed and Vanderbilt is the top #5 seed. The selection committee really doesn't want Florida to repeat, apparently.
First-Round Upset Alert: #11 VCU over #6 North Carolina
After my diatribe about how good Houston, Illinois, Nebraska and Vanderbilt are, I'm certainly not picking any of those teams to lose in the Round of 64 (any of them losing would be shocking, frankly). North Carolina has been overrated the entire season and that was even before freshman superstar Caleb Wilson suffered a season-ending injury.
VCU is a feisty #11 seed, rated just behind a few higher-seeded teams like #9 seeds TCU and Saint Louis and ahead of a pair of #10 seeds, Missouri and UCF. Basically, VCU is barely worse than North Carolina and the Tar Heels are missing their best player. Yeah, give me the Rams in this one.
Player To Watch: Keaton Wagler, Illinois
Speaking of unheralded freshmen, Illinois has one, too! His name is Keaton Wagler, and he's averaging just under 18 points/game this season, which included a historic 46-point outburst in a win over Purdue in late January. Wagler is a 40% three-point shooter on the season, which allows him to stretch defenses out. But he's also more than capable of getting to the basket and drawing contact, as evidenced by his 195 free-throw attempts this year.
It's important to note that Wagler has cooled off late in the season, both from three-point range (3-16 3PT over the past three games) and getting to the charity stripe (8-12 FT over the past three games). So, which Wagler are we going to see in the NCAA Tournament? Well, the answer to that question is going to go a long way in determining how deep into March Illinois will be playing.