2026 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: West Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts

The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.

For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East region, and now we move on to the West, which is headlined by the tournament's #2 overall seed, Arizona. 

Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 Arizona Wildcats

I'm getting tired of typing it, but the #1 seeds are really good this year, y'all. And Arizona is no exception. The Wildcats just won the loaded Big 12 championship by beating two #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, Houston and Iowa State. Arizona has lost two games this season by a combined 7 points (one loss at Kansas and one loss against Texas Tech prior to JT Toppin's season-ending injury) and hasn't lost in over a month (9-game win streak). 

This is a squad without a real weakness that rates in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. That's the perfect recipe for a National Championship winner, by the way. Arizona is incredibly balanced, with seven players averaging at least 9 points per game. 

The Arizona Wildcats, led by freshman Brayden Burries, appear poised for a deep run in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

(Ron Chenoy/Imagn Images)

In addition, the two teams they're most likely to face in the Sweet 16, Wisconsin and Arkansas, are relatively poor defensively (both are 48th or worse, according to KenPom). Arizona is very good and they don't have an overly difficult route to the third weekend, so they're the pick in the West. 

Sleeper Final Four Pick: #11 NC State Wolfpack

This is tough because I really have a hard time seeing any team coming out of this region not named Arizona, so let's get a little wacky. The Wolfpack limped to the finish line in the regular season (to put it mildly) by losing six of its final seven games (with the only win coming over a North Carolina squad missing both Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar). They won a second round game in the ACC Tournament over Pitt before getting bounced by Virginia. 

So, yeah, not great. But Will Wade is legitimately one of the best basketball coaches in the country (despite his, uh, questionable past). And I have a sneaking suspicion that this team can turn it on and get hot for an NCAA Tournament run. Will they do it? Probably not. But if you're looking for a true sleeper, NC State fits the mold (also, teams that win a First Four game are uniquely positioned to pull off a Round of 64 upset). 

Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #2 Purdue Boilermakers 

Based on my previous pick, you might assume I'd go with Gonzaga here. But I don't love the spot that Purdue finds itself in, either. Often, teams that make crazy runs in their conference tournament run out of gas in the NCAA Tournament. Because Purdue entered the Big Ten Tournament as the #7 seed, they had to play four games in four days. That's a lot of basketball in a short amount of time. 

The good news for the Boilermakers is their path to the second weekend. Obviously, they're heavily favored to win over #15 Queens. In the Round of 32, they will face either Miami or Missouri. Neither is particularly threatening. According to KenPom, both teams are overseeded in this year's NCAA Tournament (Miami is rated 31st overall and Missouri is 52nd). 

To be frank, I predict this region to be one of the chalkiest in the tournament, but based on the rules I set up, I have to make some upset picks. So, there ya go. 

First-Round Upset Alert: #11 NC State over #6 BYU 

Obviously, based on earlier picks, this is the biggest upset spot in the Round of 64. BYU features AJ Dybantsa, a projected Top 3 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. He's a stud, no question. But the loss of Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury put a major damper on the Cougars' season. Not only was Saunders the team's best deep threat (thus opening the court for Dybantsa) but he brought experience and leadership to the team. That loss is going to be felt by BYU. 

BYU Cougars freshman forward AJ Dybantsa is a projected Top 3 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. 

(Aaron Baker/Imagn Images)

The Cougars raced out to a 16-1 start and looked like one of the best teams in college basketball. But they started to really struggle even prior to Saunders' injury. BYU went 7-10 over its final 17 games (4-5 without Saunders) and all of its best wins came at home. Yes, Dybantsa could take over at any moment and propel BYU to a deep tournament run. But he could also be caught looking ahead to his NBA career. I'll bank on the latter. 

Player(s) To Watch: AJ Dybantsa, BYU & Brayden Burries, Arizona

Dybantsa is a must-list here because he's potentially the #1 pick in the NBA Draft and I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't at least point that out. But I discussed him in the BYU section and it's possible fans don't get to see that much of him in the NCAA Tournament. 

With that in mind, let's turn our attention to another freshman in Burries. Arizona features a balanced scoring attack, but Burries leads the way (15.9 points/game). He's a 6'4" guard who can shoot threes (36.7%), is an efficient shooter (49.2% FG) and makes free throws (80.4%). Burries is another projected lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and with Arizona looking like a team that can make a deep run into March, Burries has a chance to make himself a household name before the start of his professional career.