OutKick NFL Mock Draft 1.25: Picks 1-23 Now Locked In & Another QB Enters The First-Round Fray

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Last week, OutKick posted its first mock draft of the 2023 NFL Draft season. Now that six more teams have been eliminated from Super Bowl contention, picks 1-23 are officially locked in.

Reminder — the Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick as punishment from the league for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton, which is why there are 23 picks and not 24.

*Note: updated selections will be marked with an asterisk.

1. Indianapolis Colts (projected trade with Bears) – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

We’re starting this NFL mock draft off with a bang. I’ll be writing a longer piece about why the Bears should trade Justin Fields and draft a quarterback, but ultimately I don’t think they have the stones to do it. More likely, they stick with Fields and trade this pick for a stockpile.

Colts GM Chris Ballard already said he would do “whatever it takes” to get a quarterback. Moving up from fourth is certainly doable. Bryce Young is the clear prize of this draft and after years of shuffling washed veterans like Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan into the lineup, it’s time to go get their guy.

2. Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Houston is going to have to do a lot of homework on the three quarterbacks. If they fall in love with one, they could try to trade up one spot to guarantee they get their guy. However, I think Chicago will get a better offer from a team like the Colts (as projected) or maybe even the Seahawks. So, the Texans take whichever guy they like most here. Right now, I think that will be Stroud.

Ohio State QB CJ Stroud officially declared for the NFL Draft, which was the smart move, since he's a Top 2 pick in OutKick's mock draft.
Ohio State QB CJ Stroud officially declared for the NFL Draft, which was the smart move, since he’s a Top 2 pick in OutKick’s mock draft. (Photo via Getty Images)

3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

A perfect replacement for the now-retired JJ Watt, Arizona gets their pick of the best defensive player in the NFL Draft after quarterbacks go in the top two spots. They could consider Jalen Carter here, but I think they’ll value an edge rusher over an interior defender.

4. Chicago Bears (projected trade with Colts) – Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU

If the Bears ultimately stick with Fields, they have to get some talent around him. That starts here. Chicago has admitted Fields has a ways to go as a passer — what better way to help him than grabbing a 6’4″ monster who can make contested catches and take short passes to the house?

5. Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Seattle’s defense was laughably bad across the board and they have holes all over the place. Geno Smith isn’t the long-term answer, but I don’t think the Seahawks will fall in love with Will Levis. Instead, they grab one of the top defenders on the board who can beef up their weak interior.

6. Detroit Lions (acquired from Rams) – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State*

*Original write up: Speaking of laughably bad defenses, that was Detroit in 2022. That’s what really held them back from making the playoffs. Although I don’t think Jared Goff is the answer, he’s shown he can do enough to keep the team competitive. I think it’s important for this franchise to make the playoffs next season and with Aaron Rodgers on a downturn (or possibly heading towards retirement or a new team), the NFC North is available. Because of that, I think they use their two first-round picks to improve their current team and not look as much toward the long-term future by taking a quarterback.

*Original pick: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

Why the change? People I spoke with around the league do not believe Ringo will be the first cornerback off the board. One source described him as “too stiff in the hips.” There is debate about who the first corner will be, but for now we’ll go with the Penn State product.

Previous second generation NFLers who play cornerback have worked out well (see Asante Samuel Jr. and Patrick Surtain Jr.) so Joey Porter Jr. should fly up NFL Draft boards.
Previous second generation NFLers who play cornerback have worked out well (see Asante Samuel Jr. and Patrick Surtain Jr.) so Joey Porter Jr. should fly up NFL Draft boards and we see him as a Top 10 pick in our mock draft. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

7. Las Vegas Raiders – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

Las Vegas has Maxx Crosby on the edge, and he’s a stud. But playing in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert (and Russell Wilson if he remembers how to play football), you need more than one guy. Clelin Ferrell and Chandler Jones are both below average, and the Raiders have an opportunity to upgrade big time. Maybe the Ferrell pick (#4 in 2019) will scare them from taking another Clemson edge rusher, but it shouldn’t.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Atlanta has loaded up on offense the past few drafts, grabbing QB Desmond Ridder, TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London. But their defense stinks. They don’t have a single edge rusher ranked in the Top 60 in the NFL according to PFF, so this feels like a no-brainer. They grab the best edge player available, which right now is Wilson.

9. Carolina Panthers – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Like it or not, someone is going to convince themselves that Will Levis is a Top 10 talent. Right now, I think that team is the Panthers. Somehow, they stayed in the NFC South race until Week 17, but you can’t make the playoffs with Sam Darnold. The Baker Mayfield experiment didn’t work. Levis has all the tools of an elite QB, but he hasn’t really shown it on the field. That seems important. Still, teams easily fall in love with tools and the Panthers aren’t exactly the best judge of quarterback talent.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (acquired from Saints) – Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina*

*Original write up: Having a Top 10 pick coming off the best regular season in the NFL is such a massive W for Eagles GM Howie Roseman. The Eagles don’t have a ton of weaknesses, obviously, and could look to move this pick for even more draft capital to improve depth. But for now I think they look to get a young, stud CB and they stay in-state to do it. James Bradberry had a good season, but he’s going to be 30 next season and is on a one-year deal. Their other top corner, Darius Slay, is 32.

*Original pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Why the change? With Porter off the board, Philly goes with the next-highest rated DB on their board. As of now, I believe that’s Smith.

11. Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

For a team that nearly made the playoffs — literally one play away — the Titans are an actual mess. They have no quarterback, despite drafting one last year. Malik Willis got benched for Josh Dobbs, a guy who was bouncing around practice squads. I think Tennessee adds a veteran like Derek Carr and he’s going to need to be protected. The Titans had arguably the worst offensive line in football. Thanks to the teams ahead of them having bigger needs, the Titans grab the best tackle on the board without a Top 10 pick.

12. Houston Texans (acquired from Cleveland Browns) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Houston gets its quarterback with the second pick and what better way to make him comfortable than by drafting his teammate? The Texans are bereft of playmakers on the outside, Brandin Cooks is going to demand a trade, and they need an offensive upgrade in the worst way. Smith-Njigba was likely going to be the #1 wide receiver on the board, but an injury-plagued and lost season drops him down to where Houston can scoop him up just outside the Top 10 in this mock draft.

Although 2022 was a lost season for Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, expect him to still go highly in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Although 2022 was a lost season for Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, expect him to still go highly in the 2023 NFL Draft. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

13. New York Jets – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Another team that I think brings in a veteran QB, the Jets aren’t that far from competing. Just like the Titans, their biggest need is on the offensive line. There’s a decent drop-off between Skoronski and Johnson, mostly because Johnson is a former guard who just started playing left tackle this season. But that versatility can be an asset to a team that needs help everywhere up front.

14. Baltimore Ravens (projected trade with Patriots) – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

The Patriots could use an offensive tackle, but with the two top guys off the board, I think they slide down to acquire more capital and get their guy later. Belichick loves stockpiling picks. We saw a pair of trades last season to move up and acquire top-level WRs and I think that’s what we get here. Baltimore badly needs a guy on the outside, so I think they make the move to get the best receiver available.

15. Green Bay Packers – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

Without knowing what’s going to happen with Aaron Rodgers (who has another new girlfriend, by the way), the Packers are a tough team to project. Rashan Gary is a solid edge rusher, but the Packers could use a bookend to round out the front. They love to use their first round picks on defenders and their below-average defense is in need of help. They scoop up one of the better ones still on the board, the senior out of Georgia.

16. Washington Commanders – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The Commanders were held back by terrible QB play, but rookie Sam Howell showed some upside in his lone start. Terry McLaurin is a strong outside threat, so I think Washington tries to grab someone who can exploit the seams and create matchup problems. They get the #1 tight end in the NFL Draft by a wide margin by snagging Mayer.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

Uncharacteristically, the Steelers defense was below average this season. They have their quarterback of the future, and they have weapons at running back, tight end and wide receiver. They could use some offensive line help, but I think that comes later. For now, I think they beef up the defense. Cameron Hayward is strong in the middle, but he’s going to be 34. Chris Wormley is a free agent coming off an ACL tear that will keep him out for the start of next season. Breece is a highly-ranked prospect and this is great value for Pittsburgh at 17.

18. Detroit Lions – Brian Branch, S, Alabama

The Lions defensive overhaul continues. After grabbing a high-level CB talent with their first pick, they stay in the secondary and scoop Branch. Branch will be valuable in the NFL because he will play mostly safety, but can also slide down and guard the slot. The Lions desperately need backend help, as neither of their current safeties rank inside the Top 40 according to PFF.

Versatility makes Brian Branch a valuable commodity in the 2023 NFL Draft, and we like him as a Top 20 pick in our mock draft
Versatility makes Brian Branch a valuable commodity in the 2023 NFL Draft, and we like him as a Top 20 pick in our mock draft. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jalen Hyatt, WR, Tennessee*

*Original write-up: For a team that reached the playoffs, Tampa Bay certainly has a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. With Tom Brady likely to bolt, it’s time for a rebuild in Tampa. There is no quarterback-in-waiting here, and although Richardson is a massive project undertaking, now would be the time to the pull the trigger on someone like that. In our mock draft, the Florida kid gets to continue to develop in his home state.

*Original pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Why the change? After speaking with someone close to the Bucs organization, I believe the team will lean towards trying to bring in a veteran QB like Derek Carr and are not ready to give up on 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask. This is a team that clearly lacks speed on offense and Hyatt reportedly ran a 4.31 40-yard dash. And, according to SI, he’s also credited with running a 10.46 100-meter dash and 21.14 200-meter dash. That a massive boost to a slow offense.

20. Seattle Seahawks – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida*

*Original write-up: The Seahawks continue the overhaul of their defensive front, grabbing the best EDGE rusher on the board at this point. They started by getting a stud DT in Jalen Carter to stuff the middle, and complement him with some pressure off the edge. Seattle has to get better up front on defense and having two Top 20 picks is a great place to start doing just that.

*Original pick: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Why the change? Now that Richardson has fallen to #20 in this updated mock draft, the Seahawks grab their potential QB of the future. This is a great spot for him. Seattle can sign Geno Smith to a two-year deal and keep him as the starter to tutor Richardson. That gives the kid time to develop so he won’t be rushed into action.

21. Los Angeles Chargers – Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

The Chargers need to get better against the run. Like, badly. They have talent on the outside of their defensive line, see: Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. And, they have strength on the backend, see: Derwin James and Asante Samuel Jr. They had a strong pass defense even though signing JC Jackson was a mistake. But they’re rush defense was the worst in the league, again. Smith is a name most probably aren’t familiar with, but he has a chance to get into the first round based on his ridiculous size. He’s a perfect fit for LA.

Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Mazi Smith is a big dude who could fly up NFL Draft boards and we believe he's a first round talent.
Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Mazi Smith is a big dude who could fly up NFL Draft boards and we believe he’s a first round talent in our mock draft. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

22. New England Patriots (projected trade with Ravens) – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

The Patriots slide back in a projected trade with Baltimore and manage to still grab a high-level offensive tackle. Jones is a perfect fit for the Patriots — protecting Stetson Bennett is a great way to prepare for protecting Mac Jones.

23. Minnesota Vikings – Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia*

*Original write-up: If anything showed just how badly the Vikings need defensive help, it was the absolute clinic that Daniel Jones put on in the Wild Card round. Yes, he’s played a ton better under Brian Daboll who coached circles around the Vikings staff. But at the end of the day, if Minnesota had more dudes on defense, that shouldn’t happen. Their offensive core is strong, though they need some interior line help, but they have to address that defense. They used high selections on DBs last year (Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth Jr.) who both got hurt, so their return will help. They need someone to pair with Danielle Hunter, so they snag Harrison to help seal the opposing edge.

*Original pick: Zach Harrison, EDGE, Ohio State

Why the change? Originally, I thought Minnesota would opt for help up front, but after re-thinking their situation, I have decided you can’t have enough quality defensive backs in the modern NFL. With Patrick Peterson on his last legs and a one-year contract, the Vikings might very well opt to use another high pick on a corner. Originally, I had had Ringo higher, so Minnesota gets good value having him slide down to the them in the mid-20s.

Stay tuned for mock draft updates after the Divisional Round gives us four new teams locked into their NFL Draft position!

Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ

Written by Dan Zaksheske

Dan began his sports media career at ESPN, where he survived for nearly a decade. Once the Stockholm Syndrome cleared, he made his way to Outkick. He is secure enough in his masculinity to admit he is a cat-enthusiast with three cats, one of which is named “Brady” because his wife wishes she were married to Tom instead of him.

One Comment

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  1. You’ve got to be out of your monkey ass mind if you think my Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to draft another UF QB and do so in the first round. All college hatred aside, AR is a super unpolished QB who should have stayed in college for at least one more year. Dude is a shittier version of Justin Fields and a poor man’s Cam Newton.

    And if this comes to fruition, what does that say about Kyle Trask? Spent a 2nd round pick on him and he’s been behind Brady for 2 years in the system.

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