Chiefs Ends Year Of Bettor-Friendly Results By Beating Eagles In Super Bowl LIX
I've accepted that the Public will bet on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans and the Pros will bet on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs have reached the late-90s, early-2000s Yankees-, Kobe and Shaq's Lakers-, Brady and Belichick Patriots-, and Floyd Mayweather-level of hate. Meaning, people root for them to lose.
Like those old Patriots teams, the Chiefs' win-loss record is better than their underlying stats. They were 11th in point differential in the regular season, but 13-0 in one-score games, including a 32-29 victory over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship. KC won the first of its back-to-back Super Bowls two years ago by beating Philly 38-35.
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Conversely, the Eagles had the second-highest point differential during the regular season, behind the Detroit Lions. Then Philadelphia cruised past the Green Bay Packers 22-10 in the wild-card round, held off the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round, and crushed the Washington Commanders 55-23 in the NFC title game.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl 2025 Odds (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: KANSAS CITY (-120) | Philadelphia (+100)
- Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-105) | Eagles +1.5 (-115)
- Total — 48.5 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)
Everyone knows Kansas City has the better QB/head coach combo with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. But, the unspoken hero of KC's dynasty is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. After all, "defense wins championships." He was the defensive coordinator of the 2007 New York Giants, who famously upset the then-undefeated Patriots 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII.
Spags is known for tailoring his defensive game plan specifically for his opponent that week and dialing up exotic blitzes at the perfect time. The latter is what I see being a huge factor Super Bowl Sunday. Despite playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football, Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts had the third-highest sack rate during the regular season (minimum of 10 starts).
The Chiefs must be ahead to force Hurts into passing situations to capitalize on him hanging onto the ball too long. This is where the holiness of the Mahomes-Reid-Spags trinity comes in. Rather than shutting down Eagles RB and 2024-25 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Saquon Barkley, Mahomes and Reid will play "keep away".
This leads to my next point: Philadelphia's defense is overrated. The Eagles were tied for 13th in sacks (41) in the regular season and had the fifth-worst pressure rate (17.9%). Philly had an NFL-high 70 sacks with the second-best pressure rate (25.5%) in 2023 when it lost to Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. (Photo credit: Patrick Breen/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Even though the game got away from them, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels dinked-and-dunked his way to an 18-play, seven-minute opening drive that led to a field goal. Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw for 324 yards with 2 touchdowns and no picks vs. Philadelphia in the divisional round. If Daniels and Stafford can carve up Philly's defense, Mahomes certainly can.
People think Kansas City has been flying too close to the sun by narrowly beating most of its opponents. Yet, like the Brady- and Belichick-Patriots, the Chiefs know how to win games late and don't make back-breaking mistakes. That said, the Eagles are +10 in turnover margin in these playoffs. You can't rely on turnovers or miscues to beat KC.
Ultimately, the Chiefs win the Tale of the Tape and their moneyline is only -120. Philadelphia has the highest-rated defense in the NFL, but Kansas City is second with a better quarterback, coach, and special teams. It's square and boring, but we are in the Mahomes Era and the Eagles are just living in it.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Eagles 21
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Other Super Bowl LIX Betting Content
FOX Super 6 NFL Challenge: OutKick Bettor Geoff Clark's Super Bowl 2025 Picks
OutKick Bets Podcast: Super Bowl 2025 Betting Breakdown Ft. David Troy
Passing Props For Super Bowl 2025: Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Four Rushing Props For Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX
Super Bowl LIX Receiving Prop Bets: Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
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