Passing Props For Super Bowl 2025: Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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In Super Bowl 2023, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw for more yards than Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (304-182) in Kansas City's 38-35 victory. If you want to bet that happening again, DraftKings makes Hurts a +170 underdog to have more passing yards than Mahomes (-235) in Super Bowl LIX. I'm focusing on other Super Bowl 2025 passing props instead. 

Super Bowl LIX Passing Props 

The odds are the best available from legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. 

  • Mahomes OVER 23.5 Completions (-130) via BetMGM.
  • Mahomes Longest Completion UNDER 34.5 Yards (-110) via DraftKings.
  • Hurts No Interception (-141) via DraftKings.
  • Hurts UNDER 212.5 Passing yards (-111) via DraftKings.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 Completions 

The Chiefs are a bad rushing team, the Eagles have a top-10 rush defense, and Andy Reid won't waste time with plays that probably won't work. He hasn't all year. According to NFELO, Kansas City had the second-highest pass rate over expectation during the regular season. 

Reid went with run-heavy game plans in KC's first two playoff games. The Chiefs had 22 carries to just 25 pass attempts vs. the Houston Texans in the divisional round and 35 rushes to 26 throws vs. the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game. But, that's because Houston and Buffalo were better at defending the pass than the run. 

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throwing a pass vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 2023. (Photo credit: Joe Rondone-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throwing a pass vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 2023. (Photo credit: Joe Rondone-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Mahomes has 26+ completions in three Super Bowls but completed just 21-of-27 passes vs. Philly in Super Bowl 2023. Yet, Mahomes' 77.8% completion rate was a career-high for the Big Game. Since the Eagles are much tougher against the run this year, Reid will have Mahomes dropback enough for my OVER 23.5 completions to hit. 

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion UNDER 34.5 Yards 

I'm expecting a lot of dinking-and-dunking by Mahomes Sunday like we've seen all year. Mahomes was 41st in intended air yards per pass attempt out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks during the regular season. Despite that, the Eagles know Mahomes can still beat them deep, so Philadelphia won't pack the box and dare him to try it. 

Kansas City's deep threats are WRs Hollywood Brown (who is overrated) and Xavier Worthy. But, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio built his two-high safety defense, which the rest of the NFL copied, to stop Mahomes. Philadelphia has two elite rookie cornerbacks, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who can run with KC's deep threats. 

I.e., the most likely way Mahomes goes Over this number is through yards after the catch (YAC). Well, the Eagles are ninth in YAC and ninth in missed tackles on defense this season. The spine of Philly's defense is strong, featuring Eagles LB Zack Baun, a 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year finalist and one of the best linebackers in pass coverage. 

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts No Interception (-141) 

Believe it or not, Hurts has the best completion rate over expectation in the league and ranks ninth in bad-throw rate. He just doesn't put the ball in harm's way and the Eagles have the best pass-catchers in the NFL. Hurts threw 5 interceptions in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He hasn't thrown a pick in 13 of his 17 full games played. 

Also, don't get sticker shock by the -141 odds for the "No." Pro bettors like betting on these pricier props because there is more public money on props in the Super Bowl and the average Joe gravitates to plus-money payouts. At BetMGM, more action is on Hurts to throw a pick, but the line is moving toward the "No." Meaning, the sharp money is on the "No". 

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 212.5 passing yards 

Philadelphia has the pass rate over expectation because RB Saquon Barkley is the deadliest weapon in football. Barkley ran for 2,000+ yards, and could've, should've broken the NFL single-season rushing record, but sat out Week 18. I have the Chiefs winning and the game going Under the total, so the Eagles won't have to abandon the run. 

Since they are so run-heavy, Hurts threw for less than 203 yards in nine of his 17 full games, including two of three playoff games this season. Lastly, Pinnacle Sportsbook has Hurts' passing prop at 210.5 yards. That's significant because Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker that books the largest bets in the world. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season. 

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