How Well Did College Football National Championship Predictions Age?
Just one of 20 experts picked semifinalist Oregon while Penn State collapsed to 6-6 and Texas missed playoff entirely
We're at the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff, with just four teams remaining with a chance to win a National Championship. And just as we all predicted, it's the Oregon Ducks, Ole Miss Rebels, Indiana Hoosiers, and Miami Hurricanes that are just two wins away from a title.
It's easy to forget now, but heading into the season, there were several teams up near the top of the rankings who seemed to be set up perfectly for a shot at a deep playoff run. The Penn State Nittany Lions were coming off a close loss in last year's playoff, brought back quarterback Drew Allar and veteran head coach James Franklin.
Dabo Swinney, already a multiple-time National Champion, had Cade Klubnik returning for the Clemson Tigers after an outstanding 2024 season. Ohio State looked to repeat, with several of the sport's best players on offense and defense.
There were any number of reasons to pick against the teams that have made it this far. Which is why it's fun to look back and see how the college football "experts" did picking their national champion ahead of the season.
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UNIVERSITY PARK, PA - OCTOBER 05: Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks to the field with his players before the second half of a college football game against the UCLA Bruins on October 5, 2024 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
College Football Predictions Didn't Go Well
On3 compiled a list of some prominent college football analysts and experts from across the industry and their preseason picks to win the 2026 National Championship Game.
So how did they do? Well, almost to a person, extremely poorly!
- Brett McMurphy: Georgia
- Kirk Herbstreit: LSU
- Andy Staples: Texas
- Josh Pate: Alabama
- Paul Finebaum: Texas
- Urban Meyer: Ohio State
- Kayce Smith: Clemson
- Taylor Lewan: Oregon
- J.D. Pickell: LSU
- Jake Crain: Alabama
- Will Compton: Texas
- Joel Klatt: Ohio State
- Ross Dellenger: Penn State
- Nicole Auerbach: Clemson
- Ari Wasserman: Texas
- Lee Corso: LSU
- Brandon Walker: Penn State
- Brooks Austin: Alabama
- Heather Dinich: Penn State
- Danny Kanell: Penn State
The three most commonly picked teams were Penn State, Texas and Alabama, with four selections each. Penn State fell apart in the middle of the season, fired their head coach, and finished 6-6. Though they did at least, win their bowl game. That bowl game was over Clemson, another team picked to win multiple times. The Tigers didn't even reach the ACC Championship Game, let alone the College Football Playoff.
Then there's Texas. The Longhorns had preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Arch Manning, what was rumored to be college football's most expensive roster, and had made the playoff in 2024. But they couldn't get past Ohio State, lost to an awful Florida team, got blown out by Georgia, and struggled in close wins against bottom rung teams like Kentucky and Mississippi State. None of that prevented Steve Sarkisian from throwing a fit after his underwhelming 9-3 team didn't make the playoff ahead of more deserving 10-2 teams, but that's SEC coaches for you.
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Alabama, at least made the playoff, though didn't deserve it after being obliterated in the SEC Championship Game. Their run ended abruptly when Indiana ran them off the field in the Rose Bowl Game. Ohio State at least had a chance, finishing #2 in the final poll before a stout Miami defense ended their hopes of a repeat. But three personalities picked LSU whe the Tigers also collapsed during the season and fired their head coach.
Props go to Taylor Lewan, who was the only one on the list to pick a team still alive.
Does this mean none of these people know what they're talking about when it comes to college football? No, of course not. Predictions are hard, particularly in a sport that's changing as quickly as this one. There were good reasons to think teams like Texas, Penn State, or Alabama could at least get close to a title. But that's what makes college football so fun and exciting, the unpredictability of it. Upsets can derail a season. Arch Manning struggled to start the season, then looked like a different, vastly improved quarterback at the end of the year during the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl win over Michigan.
At the same time, this is why preseason polls are so absurd. We simply don't know before the season which teams are elite and which ones aren't. Recruiting rankings are nice, but injuries can affect roster depth. NIL has leveled the playing field. And assuming linear improvement from last year's starters isn't always accurate. But hey, at least these predictions don't actually influence the "ranked wins" debate that comes up every year.