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These are once-a-year wagers only available for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl that I’ve spent far too much time thinking about and I have to bet.
Since this is the fifth Super Bowl 2023 bet slip I’ve created through DraftKings Sportsbook, I have to pace myself or else I won’t be paying rent for March.
But, I’m using a $100 budget per prop because $100 is a nice, round number and doesn’t break the bank. Fade, follow or pass at your own risk and gamble responsibly.
1st Philadelphia Eagles Drive Result Grouped: No Offensive Score (-135)
I said this when breaking down the Chiefs’ AFC Divisional Round game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars but Kansas City’s defense was the most underrated unit remaining in the playoffs.
The Chiefs haven’t allowed a score on their opponents’ opening drive in five of their last eight playoff games (including three straight) over their last three postseasons.
Two of those instances were against the Buffalo Bills and the other was in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round vs. the Cleveland Browns.
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a legit innovator, bursting on the scene with the New York Giants who upset the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 2008.
The Giants used a “NASCAR” with four pass rushers on the defensive front. Spags has been the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator since 2019 and a member of their Super Bowl 2020 winning team.
Obviously, Philadelphia’s offense has the talent to go up and down the field on KC. But, the “No Offensive Score” for “1st Philadelphia Eagles Drive Result Grouped” market is more expensive for a reason.
Part of it is Spagnuolo being an elite DC and the other is Philadelphia’s QB and coach are making their Super Bowl debuts. It might take a quarter to get the butterflies out of their stomachs.
Total Game Sacks: UNDER 5.5 (-120)
These are two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Four of Philly’s five offensive line starters have a top-10 Pro Football Focus grade for their respective positions. KC’s offensive line leads ESPN’s pass blocking win rate.
The Eagles have the best pass rush in the NFL. But, Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and avoids pressure as well as anyone. Mahomes knows the Eagles are coming and he’s going to get rid of the ball before taking drive-killing sacks.
Also, as I said yesterday, my guess is Reid goes with a more run-heavy gameplan. The Chiefs are banged-up at WR and the Eagles have a below-average run defense. I figure Philadelphia will have fewer chances to get to Mahomes.
Despite Philly’s sick pass rush, I’m more worried about the Chiefs pushing this total game sack number Over the total. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts isn’t as quick at going through progressions and can eat sacks from time to time.
Philly is 21st in QB sacked rate and tied for the 22nd-most sacks allowed during the regular season at 44. But, the Eagles have the 4th-highest rushing rate in the NFL.
Given it’s their QB and coach’s Super Bowl debuts, I’d expect the Eagles to run the ball behind their offensive line. Philadelphia has the second-best run blocking win rate, per ESPN.
Philadelphia Eagles Shortest Punt: OVER 36.5 yards (-110)
Eagles P Brett Kern only averages 40.8 yards per punt and he shanked one for 34 yards in the NFC championship so that’s a concern. But, the crux of this handicap relies on Philly’s aggressiveness.
The most likely scenario where the Under 36.5 for Philly’s shortest punt cashes is if the Eagles try to kick inside the 20-yard line. The Eagles have attempted the 4th-most fourth down conversions in the NFL.
They’ll run the ball on third-and-medium to setup a fourth-and-short. Philadelphia’s offensive line and Hurts are fantastic in short-yardage situations.
This prop is slightly correlated with the sack one above in that I don’t think either team gets knocked out of FG range with a costly sack on their opponent’s side of the field.
If the Eagles have a fourth-and-medium on Kansas City’s side of the field, they are going for it. Likewise for the Chiefs. Also, both kickers have big legs.
Eagles PK Jake Elliot has made 19 FGs from 50+ yards out and has a career-long FG of 61 yards. Chiefs PF Harrison Butker has made 23 FGs of at least 50 yards and hit a career-long from 62 earlier this season.
The bottom line is I don’t see a lot of punts being kicked on the opponent’s side of the field, especially by the Eagles.
Total 4th Down Conversions: OVER 1.5 (-165)
I’ve already covered this above but the Eagles are one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL and have the O-line and QB to convert most fourth-and-shorts. The Chiefs have the 2nd-best fourth-down conversion rate in the NFL at 75%.
Even though Philadelphia’s front seven is stacked, the Eagles aren’t good in fourth-and-short scenarios. Philly’s D-line is dead-last in power rank and ranks 26th in stuff rate, per Football Outsiders.
Finally, the Over for this prop is live down to the very last drive. Either one of these teams could and may need to convert multiple fourth downs in a last-ditch effort to save their season.
Super Bowl 2023 Game Props Bet Slip
Other Super Bowl Handicaps
GAMBLING ON GOOFY SUPER BOWL 2023 NOVELTY PROPS INCLUDING THE GATORADE BATH
SUPER BOWL 2023 TOUCHDOWN PROPS: CHIEFS VS. EAGLES, INCLUDING HURTS ANYTIME TD
SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES RECEIVING PROPS: BACK GOEDERT, FADE TONEY
SUPER BOWL 2023 CHIEFS-EAGLES RUSHING PROPS TO BET
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