Geoff Clark
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Touchdown props are generally a stay-away for me in the NFL regular season. But, Super Bowl 2023 is this Sunday and I’m carving out a $100-110 budget per prop post.
Keep in mind that I’m using a $100 budget because $100 is a nice, round number. Feel free to bet more, less or nothing on these props and always gamble responsibly.
My other Super Bowl 2023 prop betting pieces for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona are at the bottom of this handicap.
Super Bowl 1st Touchdown Scorer
These are absolute shots in the dark so I’m not betting less than 10-1 here …
Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (+1300)
It’s only his 2nd season but Smith is already one of the best route runners in the NFL and two of the Chiefs’ three starting cornerbacks are rookies.
Smith works out of the slot, catches screens and deep balls, and is used in presnap motion often. Kansas City’s defense tied with Tennessee for the most TDs allowed to opposing WRs in the regular season (20).
Chiefs 3rd-year CB L’Jarius Sneed is KC’s non-rookie cornerback. Sneed will probably be tasked with covering Eagles No. 1 WR A.J. Brown who leads the team in targets (145), receiving TDs (11) and yards (1,496).
Smith should get opportunities vs. the Chiefs’ young defensive backs because he is Philly’s No. 2 WR. However, Smith has 7 receiving TDs himself and has a better catch rate than Brown (69.9-60.7%).
Kansas City Chiefs TE Noah Gray (+4500)
Hand up: I watch a lot of football and I’ve never heard of this guy but Gray played in 64% of the snaps in the AFC title game vs. the Bengals.
That’s the 3rd-most out of any Chiefs’ skill-position player behind All-Pro TE Travis Kelce and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
In fact, Gray has been on the field for at least 50% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in 13 of 19 games this season including 10 straight. Gray has gotten a target in every game this season.
Granted, Gray only has 2 career TDs, one in each of his 1st two seasons. But, that’s evident in the pricing. I could picture Gray getting a goal line target because Philly’s defense over-commits to Kelce.
Or perhaps the Chiefs send Kelce out in motion and do one of those shovel passes to Gray around the end zone. KC coach Andy Reid is good for a gadget play or two in this Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 yards (-170)
Unfamiliar gamblers are attracted to the Over 1.5 yards for the shortest TD scored because of the +125 payout. But it’s a trap because one-yard TDs happen more than you think.
If you’re paying attention, how many times per week do we see a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone to setup a 1st-and-goal on the 1-yard line?
It happened last year when Rams WR Cooper Kupp caught a game-winning 1-yard TD pass two plays after Bengals CB Eli Apple committed a defensive pass interference on Kupp in the end zone.
In the last 10 Super Bowls, there have been 10 one-yard TDs scored including in eight actual games. The two Super Bowls that went Over 1.5 yards for shortest TD scored were close to going Under.
Then-New England RB Sony Michel rushed for a 2-yard TD for the shortest score in Patriots-Rams Super Bowl 2019. There were three 3-yard TD passes but no 1-yard TDs in Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl 2015.
Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (-115)
Regardless of what condition Hurts’ shoulder is in, it’s the Super Bowl and he is running if he needs to. Hurts rushed for a team-high 13 TDs this season including one in each of Philly’s two playoff games.
QB or not, Hurts is one of the best players in short-yard situations in the NFL. That’s pretty much my analysis. The Chiefs are tied for the 6th-most rushing TDs allowed to QBs but how much does that actually matter?
The bottom line is a goal-line QB sneak from Hurts is a very likely way to win the “Under 1.5 yards for the shortest TD” bet above.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+235)
The injuries to Kansas City’s WR corp and Kelce being Patrick Mahomes‘ primary weapon should open up targets for Valdes-Scantling.
Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman was placed on IR earlier this week and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster missed all three practices with a knee injury last week.
Valdes-Scantling stepped up for KC last week. He played 72% of the snaps in the AFC championship and caught 6 passes for 116 yards with 1 TD. Two of his 4 TD catches this season are in these playoffs.
Other Super Bowl Handicaps
GAMBLING ON GOOFY SUPER BOWL 2023 NOVELTY PROPS INCLUDING THE GATORADE BATH
Follow or fade my picks here, for not just the NFL Super Bowl but the NBA, NHL, PGA Tour, college football, and college hoops as well!
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