Videos by OutKick
Note: New users can Bet $5 and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly from DraftKings Sportsbook. Simply sign up, make an initial deposit, and bet $5 on the Super Bowl and DraftKings will give you $200 in Bonus Bets. Outkick readers can click here to claim this offer NOW.
I’m continuing my week-long handicap of Super Bowl 2023 between the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles by tackling the receiving props today.
To avoid going broke or over-leveraging myself, I’m only using a $100 budget on all the Super Bowl prop or derivative markets I’ll be betting.
Keep in mind that I’m using a $100 budget because $100 is a nice, round number. Feel free to bet more, less or nothing on these props and always gamble responsibly.
Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 receiving yards (-125)
Goedert has gone Over this number in eight of his 14 games played this season including three of the last four. His reception prop is Over/Under 4.5 and the Over is a heavy -150 favorite.
The veteran tight end averages 12.8 yards per reception. Even if Goedert gets hooked and only catches 4 passes, he would clear 48.5 receiving yards based on his averages.
According to Pro Football Focus, Chiefs LB Willie Gay Jr. will defend Goedert and Gay has an 80.8% completion percentage against in pass coverage.
Goedert also gets easier matchups than Chiefs TE Travis Kelce because Eagles have to Pro Bowl WRs: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Philadelphia Eagles WR Quez Watkins Under 12.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Under for Watkins’ reception prop is a heavy favorite at -160 while the Over is set at +130. Watkins averages 10.7 yards per reception.
If Watkins only catches 1 pass as the market expects then based on his averages he should go Under 12.5 receiving yards.
Between Goedert, Smith and Brown, the Eagles have a lot of mouths to feed and Watkins could be the odd man out at Super Bowl 2023. Also, Philly has three RBs that could get carries in the Super Bowl.
Watkins has gone Under 12.5 receiving yards in four of his past six games. He’s caught zero passes in the playoffs and has only 1 target in the NFC Divisional and Conference rounds combined.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney Under 14.5 longest reception (-125)
Toney’s longest reception has been greater than 14.5 yards in just two of his 11 games played this season for both the Chiefs and New York Giants. Neither was in the playoffs.
He caught 5 passes for 36 yards in the AFC Divisional round vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars but the longest reception was only for 9 yards.
Toney was on the field for 29% of KC’s offensive snaps in the AFC Divisional round and 6% in the AFC title game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
Also, Toney has been one of the most injury-prone wideouts since being drafted in the 1st round by the Giants last season. He has played more than 40% of the snaps in one game this season.
Toney has only started eight games over the past two seasons. He missed practice all last week with injuries to his hamstring and ankle and is “questionable” for the Super Bowl.
There are several injuries to Kansas City’s WR corp. Out of all of them, I’m the least confident in Toney’s ability to play through injury.
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco Under 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ 1st-string running back since Week 7 and has started 13 consecutive games since. He’s gone Over 16.5 receiving yards in just five of those 13 contests.
According to VSIN, all of the money and action is on the Over for Pacheco’s receiving yards prop. The number has been steamed from 14.5 up to the current number.
This is due in part to recency bias and Kansas City having a banged-up WR room. Pacheco caught 5 passes for 59 yards in the AFC Championship.
I don’t have numbers/results to support this but every professional NFL bettor recommends playing more Unders than Overs in the Super Bowl.
Given all the injuries to the Chiefs’ pass catchers, it would make sense Pacheco is involved in the passing game. But, knowing NFL gambling like I do, it would make more sense if 99% of the bets on Pacheco to go Over 16.5 receiving yards to lose.
Super Bowl 2023 Receiving Props Bet Slip
Other Super Bowl Handicaps
GAMBLING ON GOOFY SUPER BOWL 2023 NOVELTY PROPS INCLUDING THE GATORADE BATH
SUPER BOWL 2023 TOUCHDOWN PROPS: CHIEFS VS. EAGLES, INCLUDING HURTS ANYTIME TD
Follow or fade my picks here, for not just the NFL Super Bowl but the NBA, NHL, PGA Tour, college football, and college hoops as well!
FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
PointsBet Sportsbook users can make their first bets risk-free up to $2,000. If the bet loses, PointsBet will refund you in site credit. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.