Proper Reaction Monday: Biggest Hits & Misses On NFL Preseason Predictions Include Vikings Disaster, Justin Fields, Sean Payton
Over the first four weeks of the NFL season, I've produced a column about not overreacting to limited information. Now that each team has played at least four games -- and the majority have played five -- we can start to form educated opinions about what we're seeing.
For me, this represents a good time to look back at my own bold predictions prior to the NFL season and see where I went right and where I went wrong. When you predict the outcome of all 32 NFL teams, there are bound to be some hits and misses. The goal is to have more of the former and fewer of the latter.
I gave out win total over/under predictions for all 32 teams. At some point, I'll do a complete breakdown, probably at midseason and then at the end of the year. For now, though, let's just look at some of the biggest ones...
NFL Preseason Predictions I Think I Got Right...
I'm labeling both sections as "I think..." because there's still 70% of the NFL season left to play. Still, these are the spots I'm ready to declare victory. I can still be wrong, but that's pretty rare since I get almost everything right.
Except the stuff I'm later going to admit that I got wrong. But just ignore those.
Justin Fields isn't a very good NFL quarterback
I've said this for years and finally the rest of the media is starting to come around. Fields is an elite athlete with decent arm talent. But, he's not accurate enough. And, he just doesn't process information fast enough to succeed consistently at the NFL level.
He practically admitted as much when he said his coaches give him "too much information." In case you're wondering, elite NFL QBs can never get enough information. The more, the better. But, criticizing Justin Fields' processing ability makes me a racist.
"What!? You think Justin Fields isn't smart enough to play quarterback because he's black!?"
No, I think Justin Fields isn't smart enough to be an NFL quarterback because Justin Fields isn't smart enough to be an NFL quarterback. Plenty of black quarterbacks process information just fine. Ask Patrick Mahomes if he ever felt Andy Reid gave him "too much information."
Justin Fields makes some big plays with his legs but lacks the intangibles to be a great NFL quarterback. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
That all being said, Fields possesses enough talent to win games in the NFL. And, he will win some games. But the big plays mostly come through his legs and that's not sustainable, especially in the playoffs. Sure, some in the media are going to blame coaching, ownership, and everything else around him.
Why blame the black quarterback when there are plenty of white people to blame!? Don't fall for the trap. Justin Fields is nothing more than a below-average NFL quarterback.
Sean Payton is not a genius
Man, this feels good to write. I said all offseason that trading a first-round pick for Sean Payton was a mistake. The Denver Broncos are bearing the full brunt of that decision. I laid out my full case here, if you'd like to revisit. In that piece, I argued that the Chargers shouldn't fire Brandon Staley and trade for Sean Payton.
I still whole-heartedly believe that to be the case, even as the "Fire Brandon Staley!" detractors come for his head again this season. Everyone believes that Staley is a failure despite a career winning record. "His defense stinks!" they say. That may be true.
But the alternative is Sean Payton, whose defense allowed 70 points to the Dolphins, made Justin Fields look like an MVP quarterback and just lost to Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. Oh, and gave up 35 points to Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders.
Sean Payton is an OK NFL head coach but not a genius worthy of a first-round pick. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
"Payton is a quarterback whisperer!"Oh, yeah? How's that working out for Russell Wilson? He doesn't look any better this year than he did with Nathaniel Hackett. Who, by the way, beat Payton in one of the greatest examples of karmic justice in my years of watching and covering the NFL.
Houston Texans will beat their preseason win total
Yes, I understand this isn't a definite "I got it right" just yet, but I want to stress that I feel very good about this prediction. The Texans had a very strong offseason and it's already showing on the field. They suffered a tough loss against Atlanta in a game I really thought they'd win. One defensive stop and they're sitting at 3-2 and tied for the AFC South lead.
That said, they have some very winnable games coming up and I think they're going to end up ahead of their win total of 6.5. In fact, I'd wager a lot of money that they're going to win at least seven games and more likely, eight ... or even nine. Many people didn't believe that to be the case in the preseason, so yeah, I'm chalking up an early victory. It's my column, I can do what I want.
NFL Preseason Predictions I Think I Got Wrong...
The Minnesota Vikings aren't going to regress
Many in the media pegged Minnesota as a clear regression candidate. The argument was simple: the Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games and Kirk Cousins engineered eight fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives. That's not sustainable, they said.
I argued that not that it wasn't necessarily sustainable, but that they wouldn't go too far backwards. That was incorrect. Not only are the Vikings 1-4 in one-score games this season (clear regression), but they're tied for last in the NFL in turnover differential with the Las Vegas Raiders. Turnovers also tend to regress to the mean year-over-year.
The Minnesota Vikings have regressed this NFL season and I missed that one. Sorry. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
I'm still not convinced that the Vikings can't make the playoffs. They've had some bad luck with the turnovers but they had good luck last year. So, yeah, the regression hit as many people thought it might. They've already lost as many games this season as all of last year. I missed that one.
Miami Dolphins aren't going to make the NFL playoffs
Whoops. As a Miami Dolphins fan, I'm wired to expect the worst. And, as a journalist, I'm also wired to try and hide my bias. Sometimes, that results in overcompensating. I pegged Miami as a team overhyped entering the NFL season.
I'm not completely convinced that they're still not a bit overrated. I don't believe they're better than the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers or Bengals, especially when it comes to playoff time. Plus, there are still long-term concerns about Tua Tagovailoa from both a health and performance standpoint. And, their defense isn't great, either.
However, Mike McDaniel designed an extremely innovative offense and built a team around speed. This is a playoff team, and I got that wrong. Go Dolphins!
Carolina Panthers will win the NFC South
I don't have a lot to say here. I really thought Carolina would surprise people and win the division. But, with a rookie quarterback with no weapons and a bad offensive line, this was misguided. I'm not giving up on Bryce Young or crowning CJ Stroud the clear best QB in the draft class after just a few games. However, the Panthers are a disappointment. There's no way around that. They're not winning the NFC South.