Super Bowl LX Spread, MVP Picks: New England Patriots Vs. Seattle Seahawks

This is the epitome of a "I'm just here so they won't fine me" situation. Meaning, I'm a sports betting writer by trade, so I'm pretty much obligated to give out a pick for Super Bowl LX featuring the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. But, between us, this game sucks, and if it weren't the Super Bowl, I wouldn't be betting on it. 

On paper, Seattle should crush New England, and everyone agrees. The Seahawks are better at every position besides quarterback, and Seattle QB Sam Darnold is playing significantly better in the playoffs than New England QB Drake Maye. And the Seahawks are the most popular bet in Super Bowl history, according to @BetLabs on X.  

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds (DraftKings) 

• Moneyline: New England (+195) | Seattle (-238)
• Spread: Patriots +4.5 (-108) | SEAHAWKS -4.5 (-112) 
• Total — 45.5 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

However, Seattle's obvious edges are baked into the number, and sportsbooks aren't increasing the spread even though everyone and their grandmother is betting the Seahawks. That's scary. I don't bow at the altar of betting splits, but it doesn't feel good being on the same side as every Tom, Dick, and Jerry with a sports betting podcast. 

Unfortunately, (or fortunately, depending on what happens), I'm following the sheep into the slaughter. The Seahawks have the best yards-per-play and points-per-game margins in the NFL, and they have better line of scrimmage win rates across all four situations, according to ESPN. 

The Seattle Seahawks face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Photo credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)

Also, I love Seattle's continuity on defense, matched with defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald vs. Maye, who's looked terrible against playoff competition. Besides pass-rusher DeMarcus Lawrence and rookie DB Nick Emmanwori, most of this defense has been intact for the past couple of seasons. Between continuity and depth, the Seahawks have a championship defense. 

At first, I flirted with the idea of betting New England because I knew Seattle was square. Then I heard a few NFL analysts say something like, "I'm not comparing Maye to Tom Brady, but this feels like the first Brady-Bill Belichick team." Once I heard that, I was out on the Patriots. I'm sorry, I just can't believe this franchise has been blessed by the football gods again so quickly. 

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 17 

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Super Bowl MVP Bets

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (+120 at DraftKings) 

Saying the quarterback of the winning team will win Super Bowl MVP isn’t sharp. But, I’d rather bet less money on Seattle’s spread and use it on a Darnold MVP ticket. I’m lightly betting the Seahawks to cover the spread, this is a "quarterback award," and the Patriots are definitely a live ‘dog. 

I’m afraid Seattle could win with New England covering, and the "Seahawks -4.5" is -110, whereas Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP is plus-money. So, let’s say I’m betting $100 on Seattle. I’d put $55 on the Seahawks -4.5 (-110), $30 on Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP, and split the remaining $15 on my other two picks for this award. 

Seattle WR Rashid Shaheed (+4000 at Caesars Sportsbook) 

Shaheed could make a difference in three different ways: receiving, rushing, and returning kicks. While he didn’t score a receiving or rushing touchdown in the nine regular-season games for the Seahawks, they traded for Shaheed earlier this season, knowing he could be a weapon for them. 

He had a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown vs. the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round. Shaheed returned one punt and one kickoff for touchdowns in Seattle this season. 

His path to winning the Super Bowl MVP includes the Seahawks winning, 2+ touchdowns, and no touchdowns by Darnold and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Maybe his odds are short, but I have a feeling this will be a weird Super Bowl, and I could see Shaheed making a few huge plays.

Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon (+10000 at DraftKings) 

Witherspoon is Seattle’s highest graded player at Pro Football Focus and the highest graded cornerback in the NFL. New England’s most likely path to victory is Maye playing like an MVP for the first time in the playoffs. 

But unless Maye avoids him altogether, which is possible because it’s not wise to throw at the best cornerback in the league, Witherspoon could make game-wrecking plays. He lines up out wide, in the slot, and in the box, making it harder for Maye to avoid him. 

Granted, the Seahawks need to win a low-scoring game where both offenses suck, with Witherspoon having at least one interception, possibly a pick-six, and 6+ tackles, to be named MVP. Unlikely, obviously, but this is a "longshot" for a reason.

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Other Super Bowl LX Betting Content

THE RECEIVING PROPS CARD FOR SUPER BOWL LX: BARNER, WALKER, HOLLINS, BOUTTE

FOUR SUPER BOWL LX RUSHING PROPS I’M BETTING (AND THE GAME SCRIPTS BEHIND THEM)

PATRIOTS-SEAHAWKS SUPER BOWL LX: THREE PASSING PROPS WORTH BETTING

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.