Four Super Bowl LX Rushing Props I’m Betting (And the Game Scripts Behind Them)

"Establish the run" used to be one of the tenets of winning football until these god-damn nerds somehow bullied the jocks into throwing the ball more. In fact, there is an NFL advanced analytics site that I use called RBSDM.com, which stands for "Running Backs Don't Matter." Call me old-school, but I love a good ground-and-pound, and running backs have become cool again. 

Nevertheless, in Super Bowl LX, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks bring two physical defenses that can turn passing downs into scramble lanes and gadget wrinkles. Here are the rushing props I’m betting in Super Bowl LX, and the game-script angles that make them playable.

New England Patriots QB Drake Maye OVER 37.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel) 

The Seahawks are one of the few teams that don’t use a quarterback spy. Maye has the second-highest ADoT in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus, and the best completion percentage over expectation. With that in mind, Seattle’s defense will focus more on taking away the deep ball than stopping Maye from using his legs. 

Maye has gone Over this number in just eight of his 20 games this season, but two of those were losses, and another two were in the playoffs vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Nuggets. I.e., if the Patriots are in a trailing game script, Maye is more likely to run, and he might have to scramble against Seattle’s incredible defense.

Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (+112 at FanDuel) 

Since I have Seattle winning and covering, there’s a decent chance Darnold kneels the ball three times at the end of the game. The Patriots have a talented secondary, and head coach Mike Vrabel will try to take Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba out of the game, and Seattle’s other receivers don’t get open nearly as much as JSN. Hence, perhaps Darnold has to scramble with no one open. 

Also, if New England is ahead, maybe Darnold takes off running a few times out of desperation. So, that’s another out. Moreover, I have this theory that the less athletic quarterback subconsciously likes to prove he can run too. In this case, Maye is more mobile than Darnold, who is sneaky athletic.

Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson UNDER Longest Rush 7.5 Yards (-102 at FanDuel) 

My analysis of New England Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson Under Longest Rush prop vs. the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX for the OutKick newsletter. 

Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed OVER 4.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings) 

The Over for Shaheed’s rushing yards prop was one of the most popular for the NFC Championship against the Los Angeles Rams. It was steamed up from 1.5 rushing yards on the opener and closed at 6.5. 

Well, I faded that line movement and correctly bet the Under, assuming LAR’s defense would be looking for it because Shaheed ran the ball twice vs. the Rams during the regular season, and carried the ball twice for 27 yards against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round. 

Shaheed was stopped at the line of scrimmage on his only carry vs. LAR in the NFC title game. Now I'm zagging because this prop won't be as popular in the Super Bowl since Shaheed went Under in his last game, and I'm expecting both teams to pull out some gadget plays against these formidable defenses. 

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