The Receiving Props Card for Super Bowl LX: Barner, Walker, Hollins, Boutte

Super Bowl LX gives us the New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks, a matchup where receiving props can be cleaner than sides or totals. You’re not predicting the whole game, just who’s on the field, who’s getting looks, and who can turn one touch into yards. 

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Tight coverage kills explosives, while elusive ball-carriers can cash on quick throws. Seattle’s secondary can force low-percentage deep shots, but pressure can funnel targets underneath. Always remember to shop for the best prices in the market. That said, here are my favorite receiving props for Super Bowl LX. 

Seattle Seahawks TE A.J. Barner OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel) & Anytime Touchdown (+240 at DraftKings)

If you’re betting tight end props, the first question is always simple: Will he actually be on the field? Barner is out there often: 77.7% offensive snap share in the regular season and 88.3% so far in the postseason 

That usage matters because it’s the biggest hurdle for any tight end prop. And the workload is there, as well: Barner is third on Seattle in targets, behind only WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp.

Also, the market is basically telling you the same thing: Barner's Over 2.5 receptions is -154 at FanDuel, a pretty strong indicator the books expect him to be involved. Barner has caught 3+ balls in 10 of 19 games this season, and in every one of those games, he’s gotten at least 27+ receiving yards.

That’s why I’m on the yardage Over … and why I’m also sprinkling his anytime touchdown. Barner’s anytime touchdown price implies roughly a 30% chance, and he’s scored in six of his 19 games this season.

He’s got seven touchdowns total (six receiving, one rushing), including one as Seattle’s Tush Push ball-carrier, which is exactly the kind of weird role that turns a "tight end bet" into a red zone cheat code. I’d bet to win one unit on Barner’s over and a half-unit on his anytime TD.

New England Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte Longest Reception UNDER 18.5 Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Boutte seemingly runs a ton of go routes, and those are easy to defend when the opponent has a legit secondary. Seattle’s defensive backfield has been top-three in the NFL, and that’s the exact matchup that turns deep shots into low-percentage prayers.

The separation data is brutal: 2.3 yards of separation, among the lowest for pass-catchers with 45+ targets, according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. Lowest expected yards after completion per reception, too. 

If Boutte is going to beat 18.5 for his longest catch, he likely needs a contested downfield grab, and those opportunities aren’t exactly flowing. In the postseason, he has eight catches on 15 targets, and his 53.3% catch rate ranks fifth on the team among pass-catchers with at least five targets.

In other words, it’s not just that the matchup is tough; it’s that his profile is built around low-efficiency vertical shots.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III Longest Reception OVER 11.5 Yards (-118 at FanDuel)

Walker has caught a pass for at least 11.5 yards in 11 of 20 games this season, including both playoff games. He’s not just catching dump-offs and falling. He leads Seattle in average yards after the catch per reception among pass-catchers with at least 22 targets.

If the Patriots sell out to take away the obvious stuff (especially JSN), it could increase Walker’s receiving looks because Seattle’s offensive line is mediocre, and QB Sam Darnold may have to get the ball out quickly.

That means check-downs, and Walker is exactly the kind of back who turns a "boring" check-down into something that cashes this prop in one play. Walker can turn one quick throw into an explosive (20+ yard) gain with elusiveness and open-field vision.

Patriots WR Mack Hollins OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)

Pinnacle Sportsbook and Circa Sports in Las Vegas, two market-making oddsmakers that the bigger sportsbooks copy, have Hollins’ receiving yards prop at 26.5 yards. I like betting player props at FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, etc., when they differ from the sharper shops. 

Either way, Hollins has 27+ receiving yards in 10 of his 16 games this season, and he caught two balls for 51 yards in the AFC Championship against the Denver Broncos. 

As I wrote above, the Seahawks will prevent Boutte from catching a deep ball, and Patriots WR Stefon Diggs should get the most of their secondary’s attention since QB Drake Maye targets Diggs the most. Maybe this leads to Hollins getting softer coverage

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