Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl LX: Three Passing Props Worth Betting

Given the recent league and Super Bowl MVP winners, the NFL is, in fact, a "quarterback-driven league". So it's only fitting that I begin my Super Bowl LX betting series by giving out my favorite passing props. Preseason, you couldn't have landed New England Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold as the Super Bowl LX matchup with 1,000 guesses. 

New England went from 4-13 two years ago to 14-3 this season thanks to Maye and second-year head coach Mike Vrabel. Maye is a 2025 NFL MVP finalist and was named second-team All-Pro in his second season in the league, while leading the NFL in QBR and completion rate. 

Darnold's path to the Super Bowl is even more random. After saving his career in Minnesota last year, Seattle signed Darnold this offseason to be its new franchise quarterback in a move ridiculed by several analysts and Seahawks fans. He earned that contract and some this season, leading Seattle to the 1-seed in the NFC playoffs. 

That said, Super Bowl LX gives us a chance to profit from what we've learned about Maye and Darnold this season. With that in mind, here are my favorite passing props for the Patriots-Seahawks in Super Bowl 60. 

New England Patriots QB Drake Maye OVER 220.5 Passing Yards (-110 at FanDuel) 

Circa Sports in Las Vegas has Maye’s passing yard prop at 222.5, and I like betting the player props at these bigger sportsbooks when they differ from the "market-making" oddsmaker like Circa. While Maye has been terrible in these playoffs, New England will most likely need him to play at an MVP-level, whether it's to get the lead or throw from behind. 

Furthermore, Maye leads the league in completion rate over expectation (CPOE) with a bullet, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Maye’s 9.1% CPOE is 4.0% greater than the guy in second, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy. Hence, Maye has proven he can throw guys open and fit the ball into tight windows.

Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (+103 at DraftKings) 

I’m expecting the Over to be popular here because it’s not that expensive, and Darnold threw the third-most interceptions during the regular season (14). Plus, the Patriots had a pick against Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud in their first two playoff games. 

But Darnold hasn’t thrown an interception this postseason, and he has the best turnover-worthy play rate, per Pro Football Focus. Also, New England was 20th in pass deflections in the regular season, and Seattle has the third-lowest pass rate over expectation, according to Nfelo. 

Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold faces New England Patriots QB Drake Maye in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, Sunday February 8. (Photo credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)

Regardless, if the game plays out the way the Seahawks hope, Darnold won't need to drop back often Sunday. Between his maturation as a quarterback and the projected game script (the Seahawks winning), Darnold won't put the ball in harm's way. 

Over 2.5 Total Players to Have a Pass Attempt (+160 at DraftKings) 

This might sound like a crazy bet, but there have been 3+ players to attempt a pass in five of the last nine Super Bowls. 

• Three in Eagles-Chiefs, Super Bowl 2025: Jalen Hurts, Kenny Pickett, and Patrick Mahomes.
• Three in 49ers-Chiefs, Super Bowl 2024: Brock Purdy, WR Jauan Jennings, and Mahomes.
• Four in Bengals-Rams, Super Bowl 2022: Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow, RB Joe Mixon, and WR Cooper Kupp.
• Four in Eagles-Patriots, Super Bowl 2018: TE Trey Burton to QB Nick Foles (the 'Philly Special'), Tom Brady, and WR Danny Amendola.
• Three in Falcons-Patriots, Super Bowl 2017:  Brady, WR Julian Edelman, and Matt Ryan.

There is an "injury out" for this prop cashing, too. Maye missed practice last week with an illness and an injured shoulder. I'm sure the Patriots will inject him with painkillers if the shoulder is still hurt on Super Bowl Sunday. However, Maye does take too many sacks, so there is a chance he gets knocked out of the game. 

If that doesn't happen, perhaps a trick play like a Philly Special or wide-receiver-reverse-pass gets this prop home. Both defenses are elite, so the offensive playcallers might have to get creative to generate explosive plays. This includes fake punts and field goals or an aborted kick because of a bad snap. 

Lastly, Seahawks TE A.J. Barner is their Tush Push quarterback. Maybe instead of sneaking it, Barner throws a jump pass at the goal line. 

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