Videos by OutKick
I like two bets equally in the 6-seed Golden State Warriors at 3-seed Sacramento Kings Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals.
Since my pre-series projection was “Warriors in 7,” I’m sticking to my guns. But, there’s also value in the UNDER 230 for Game 7 because, as MJ said in The Last Dance, it’s “nut-crunching time”.
After the Dubs went to Sacramento for Game 5 and won 123-116, the Kings evened the series with a 118-99 Game 6 beatdown of the Warriors in San Francisco.
Sactown All-Star De’Aaron Fox suffered a fractured finger on his shooting hand in Game 4. Fox shot poorly in Game 5. He rallied back to put up 26 points in Game 6 on 10-of-18 shooting with 11 assists and 3 steals.
Warriors at Kings Game 7 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
Let’s focus on UNDER 230 (-110) 1st. The tempo in clinch games usually slows down. If the pace drops in Game 7 then this Over 229 has no chance. Both teams have below-average offensive efficiency in these playoffs.
Also, Golden State has played in three Game 7s in its title era. The totals are 0-3 Over/Under (O/U) with a -24.7 O/U margin. The Warriors are out-scoring opponents 95.3-91.0 on an average total of 211. Warriors-Kings Game 7 has a 229-point total.
Golden State coach Steve Kerr had Draymond Green come off the bench in Games 4, 5, and 6 after being suspended in Game 3 for stepping on Sacramento big Domantas Sabonis.
Kerr needs to put Green back in the starting 5. Warriors combo guard Jordan Poole replaced Green in the starting lineup and has been a disaster in the playoffs. Plus, Green is the anchor of Golden State’s defense.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Poole has a -4.8 non-garbage time on/off net rating in this series. The Dubs allowed 9.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Draymond was on the floor in the regular season.
Last thing about the UNDER 230, the public is hitting the Over and the sharps are betting UNDER. According to VSIN, a slight majority of the cash is on the UNDER whereas more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.
Golden State’s moneyline (ML)
The bottom line is I don’t want to overreact to the Warriors getting wrecked in Game 6. I gave out the Kings plus the points because I knew they were the “right side”. But, I always thought Golden State was winning in seven and why change now?
Sure, the Warriors looked like trash on their home floor. Yet abandoning my original analysis for this series would be an overreaction. I know Golden State has been terrible on the road but Sacramento is a year away from going to the 2nd round.
According to CTG, the Warriors have a better shot quality on both ends of the floor. Steph Curry has been the best player in this series and Klay Thompson has been the 3rd-best player behind Fox.
Ultimately, this pro-Golden State Game 7 handicap could’ve been summed up with “The Warriors have an edge in experience and Steph is the best player in the series”.
BET: UNDER 230 in Game 7 and Warriors (-105) ML
- Betting strategy: Split 1 unit-ish between Golden State’s ML and the total of Warriors-Kings (for example, 1 unit = $100).
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.