Geoff Clark
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It’s do-or-die for the 3-seed Sacramento Kings (2-3) as they head to the Chase Center to play the 6-seed Golden State Warriors (3-2) in Game 6 Friday.
Golden State became the 1st team in this series to win a road game, beating Sacramento 123-116 in Game 5. The Splash Brothers combined for 56 points on a combined 50.0% shooting (22-for-44).
After serving a Game 4 suspension, Draymond Green came off the bench in Game 5, scoring 21 points on 80% shooting with 7 assists, 4 rebounds, and 4 steals.
Kings All-Star PG De’Aaron Fox fractured the index finger on his shooting hand in Game 4. But, Fox put up numbers in Game 5, scoring 24 points on 36.0% shooting with 9 assists and 7 rebounds.
Like a sucker, I’m betting the KINGS PLUS THE POINTS in this clinch game. Per VSIN, most of the public is on Sacramento and the line is suspiciously moving toward Golden State at the time of writing.
However, as I’ll explain below, there aren’t more than 6 points worth of difference between these two teams, let alone 7.5. Plus, these closeout games have come down to the wire thus far in the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Kings at Warriors Odds, Game 6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
First, let’s address the elephant in the room: Fox’s injured shooting hand. I faded Sacramento in Game 5 because I figured Fox would struggle more so in his 1st game post-injury.
That panned out as Fox was inefficient. Although Fox did attack the rim and get teammates quality looks. My hunch is Fox will play better in his 2nd game following the injury and give the Kings a chance to win.
Also, Sactown is only 3-6 straight up (SU) vs. Golden State this season (including the playoffs). Yet the Kings are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games and three of those covers came against a Warriors team at full strength.
They are out-performing Golden State in three of the “four factors” for this series. There are a few Kings due to slump-busting games. Especially, Kings SG Kevin Huerter and Domantas Sabonis who have been garbage in the playoffs.
More importantly, the underdogs have been covering in these clinch games. There have been eight closeout games in the 2023 NBA playoffs thus far. The ‘dogs are 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in those contests.
Two of those non-covers were “bad beats”. The Celtics won, covered, and eliminated the Hawks in a 128-102 win in Game 6 of their series Thursday. But, Boston was -7.5 favorites, so only covered by a half-point.
Furthermore, the Sixers beat the Nets 96-88 in a closeout game in their 1st-round series. However, Brooklyn had an 8-point lead entering halftime and pissed away the cover.
The sharps like the Dubs to close out this series because of how well they play at home. That’s fair. But, the Kings are 14-8 ATS as road ‘dogs this season, and eventually, most of the betting action for Game 6 will be on Golden State.
BET: Kings +7.5 (-110) in Game 6 at DraftKings
PS Player Prop: Warriors SG Klay Thompson points scored (23.5)
- OVER 23.5 points: (-120)
- Under 23.5 points: (-110)
Game 6 Klay is a thing. Thompson has scored at least 25 points in six of his past seven Game 6s in the playoffs. In the past two Kings-Warriors games, Klay is scoring 25.5 PPG on 55.9% shooting (45.0% from behind the arc).
On the road this season, Thompson is scoring 19.2 PPG on 55.2% true shooting (.423/.396/.947) with a 103 offensive rating. Klay has a 113 offensive rating at home and averages 24.4 PPG on 59.5% true shooting (.447/.424/.851).
Post-All-Star break this season, Thompson’s offensive rating has climbed to 113 from 107 before the All-Star game. And Klay’s true shooting rose from 55.7% to 61.4%.
BET: Warriors SG Klay Thompson goes OVER 23.5 points (-120) at DraftKings
- Betting strategy: I’m putting 1 unit on the Kings ATS and a fifth-of-a-unit on Klay’s points prop (1 unit = $100)
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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