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Vivek Ramaswamy is now the third most likely candidate to win the presidency in 2024.
The odds for Ramaswamy now sit at +1150, according to the market aggregator OddsChecker.
Ramaswamy moves up from 5th (+2900) just a month ago, and ahead of Robert Kennedy Jr (+2200) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (+2300).
Both RFK Jr. and DeSantis saw declines from the previous month.
There were no changes at the top. Joe Biden still leads Donald Trump, +200 to +270:
The market should see movement later week after the first Republican presidential primary debate on Wednesday.
Fox News will air the event from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where it’s been confirmed at least the following seven candidates will participate:
— former Vice President Mike Pence
— former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
— former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
— Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina
— North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Prediction: Ramaswamy will wipe the floor with Pence and Christie.
GOP frontrunner Donald Trump confirmed Sunday he would not participate in the event, posting:
“The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had, I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!”
Either way, a rematch between Trump and Biden remains far more likely than not, even if both men are unpopular nationwide.
And while the odds favor Biden, he tied Trump in a recent NYT/Siena College poll at 43% each, suggesting Trump would win the Electoral College. (We explain how here.)
That said, Gavin Newsom (+4700) remains the best-value bet (long odds with a chance to pay off) on the board.
As we explained last month, the Democrat Party could look to replace Biden:
Joe Biden is in cognitive decline. His erroneous run as president — including his handling of the economy, border, and social tensions — provides boundless fodder for the eventual GOP candidate to exploit.
And the Democrat Party never wanted Biden. It wasn’t until it realized the options were down to Biden and Bernie Sanders in 2020 that the party got behind him. Before, the party has hoped to see Kamala Harris (ha), Liz Warren, or Pete Buttigieg secure the nominee.
Only the weak, unelectable bench has prevented Democrats from trying to replace Biden. Thereby if they view Newsom as serviceable, he could be the guy.
Newsom reminds us of Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada. Perhaps that explains why the party likes him.
Let us know in the comment section which candidate you’d bet on today.