RFK Jr. Moves To Third In 2024 Presidential Odds, Ahead Of DeSantis And Behind Biden, Trump

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July saw a change among the top three candidates for 2024 in the betting odds. Robert Kennedy Jr. is now the third most likely winner, according to OddsChecker.

In June, RFK Jr. was +1900. Today, he sits at +1200, ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis who had been third for months.

Joe Biden ranks first at +200 while Trump comes in at +270. The odds imply Biden and Trump have around a 34 percent and 26 percent respective chance of winning.

The rest of the pool is as follows:

RFK Jr, perhaps the most unique candidate in the race, has momentum. He’s a maverick. His opposition to the vaccine and authority have misaligned him with the Democratic Party, of which he’s a member.

Still, to usurp the sitting president as a candidate would likely require an assist from the party, of which RFK. Jr most certainly won’t be the recipient.

Thus and unfortunately, that makes Gavin Newsom the best value bet (long odds with a chance to pay off) on the board.

Joe Biden is in cognitive decline. His erroneous run as president — including his handling of the economy, border, and social tensions — provide boundless fodder for the eventual GOP candidate to exploit.

He also denies the existence of his seventh grandchild, speaking to his character.

And the Democrat Party never wanted Biden. It wasn’t until it realized the options were down to Biden and Bernie Sanders in 2020 that the party got behind him. Before, the party has hoped to see Kamala Harris (ha), Liz Warren, or Pete Buttigieg secure the nominee.

Only the weak, unelectable bench has prevented Democrats from trying to replace Biden. Thereby if they view Newsom as serviceable, he could be the guy. If not, expect Biden back atop the ticket.

As for the GOP, Trump is the prohibited favorite. He’s been the favorite since before he announced his bid.

Trump, as an outsider, won in 2016 due to societal indignation toward the establishment. Those feelings could be enhanced in 2024.

The raid on Mar-a-Lago and the indictments have only promoted Trump’s message further: the system is corrupt and ought to be drained.

Overall, put Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination at, say, 70 percent.

That said, DeSantis at +1750 seems low. His campaign rollout has not gone as planned — for a litany of reasons.

The momentum DeSantis gained in November has waned. But he’s still popular among influential conservatives and has an impressive record to tout from Covid. He does. And most of the right had admitted so before he declared his presidency.

Vivek Ramaswamy is impressive. Though +2900 is about right.

As always, Kamala Harris is too high. Why? Because no one likes Kamala Harris. They never have.

Written by Bobby Burack

Bobby Burack is a writer for OutKick where he reports and analyzes the latest topics in media, culture, sports, and politics..

Burack has become a prominent voice in media and has been featured on several shows across OutKick and industry related podcasts and radio stations.

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