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Donald Trump and Joe Biden are tied in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. A NYT/Siena College poll found that both men would receive 43% support if the presidential election were held today.
The results are from a national poll, thus suggesting Trump would win the Electoral College. Republicans tend to need fewer popular votes (due to the population in California, for example) than Democrats to win the election. See 2000 and 2016 when Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the election.
The poll is also consistent with the betting odds that confidently project a rematch between Biden and Trump, each hovering around +200 to +275. Robert Kennedy Jr. now holds a lead over Ron DeSantis for third, a distance third at +1250.
Trump has regained the momentum, plus some, that he lost in November following the 2022 midterms. Trump announced his bid for 2024 a week after the midterms, at a time he trailed DeSantis in the odds +300 to +420.
Suffice to say the politically-motivated indictments have not hurt Trump’s case but perhaps validated his message that corruption lies within the fiber of the establishment. The momentum for Vivek Ramaswamy, another businessman-turned-candidate, suggests the same.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden finally acknowledged over the weekend that he is a grandfather of seven, seemingly concerned his long-standing denial of Hunter’s four-year-old daughter would be a damning mark on his re-election campaign.
Couple that with the economy, rampant inflation, chaos at the border, surging crime, and Biden’s obvious cognitive limitations — Democrats could look to replace Biden in 2024 if a stronger alternative can emerge.
Per Fox News:
“Even so, the numbers indicate most Democratic voters are still looking for a viable alternative to Biden as half of those planning to vote in the primary want a different candidate for 2024. Of that half, 39% said Biden’s advanced age of 80 years old was the number one reason they preferred someone else. Another 20% said Biden’s poor job performance was their reason, and 14% just want someone new. Only 5% said Biden’s mental acuity was reason to seek an alternative.”
If not Biden, look for the party to prop up Gavin Newsom and continue its onslaught against RFK Jr., who while Democrat, is as disruptive to the party’s social causes as Trump or DeSantis.
Biden is a weak candidate. But approval ratings say so is Trump. Fifty-four percent of voters disapprove of Biden while 55% of disapprove Trump.
A Biden-Trump rematch could hear moderate voters justify their position by the way of 2016 and 2020, calling the race a case of the lesser of two evils.
In the meantime, Trump suggests he will not participate in Republican primary debates due to his solid lead over his rivals.
“Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President!” he wrote on Truth Social.
According to OddsChecker, Kari Lake would is the favorite to be the Republican VP. The odds are as followed:
Kari Lake — 4/1, Tim Scott — 11/2, Nikki Haley — 6/1, Vivek Ramaswamy — 7/1. The odds are consistent with the breakdown I did recently with Stacy Washington on SiriusXM.
The national poll was published roughly 15 months before the election on Nov. 5, 2024, less than six months before the first primary contest.