Sportsbooks Still Don’t Respect UCLA: BET Bruins Vs. Oregon

The Chip Kelly Bowl between his current team, No. 9 UCLA Bruins (6-0, 3-0 in Pac-12), and his former team, No. 10 Oregon Ducks (5-1, 3-0 in Pac-12), kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET in Eugene, Oregon.

UCLA upset the No. 15 Utah Utes 42-32 at home Oct. 8, covering as 3.5-point underdogs. Bruins senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson leads the conference in passer efficiency rating (180.6) and completion rate (74.8%).

UCLA Bruins head coach Chip Kelly of the UCLA Bruins reacts after an Oregon Ducks TD at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
UCLA Bruins head coach Chip Kelly of the UCLA Bruins reacts after an Oregon Ducks TD at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. (Harry How/Getty Images)

Oregon won its 5th straight game last weekend by clubbing the Arizona Wildcats 49-22 at home as 13.5-point favorites.

Ducks senior transfer QB Bo Nix has 12/1 TD/INT rate and eight rushing TDs since Oregon got crushed by the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs opening week.

The Bruins are 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Ducks since Kelly took over the UCLA football program in 2018.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: UCLA (+190), Oregon (-225)
  • Against the spread (ATS): UCLA +6 (+100), Oregon -6 (-120)
  • Total (O/U) — 70.5 — O: -110, U: -110

This feels like a “trap spot” because UCLA has better efficiency with a more proven coach and the better QB, and are getting points?!?!

My explanation for the price is Oregon is sneakily one of the more popular athletic programs in the country and bettors got burned backing UCLA when it hired Kelly five season ago. Also, the Bruins get clowned for poor fan turnout at home games.

But, UCLA has a much better net yards per play and net expected points added per play than Oregon. The Bruins win this game on 3rd down.

Oregon is 127th out of 131 charted FBS programs in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate whereas UCLA is 4th in 3rd-down conversion rate.

Furthermore, Nix cost me so much money while he was the QB for the Auburn Tigers. My natural instinct is to fade a Nix-led team. It paid off opening week when I bet Under the Ducks team total and Georgia spanked them 42-3.

Lastly, the line is disrespectful because UCLA has been profitable in this spot under Kelly. The Bruins are 21-14-2 ATS in conference play, 8-6-1 ATS as road underdogs (+3.6 ATS margin), and 8-6 ATS vs. ranked teams since 2018.

BET: UCLA +6 (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook and ‘sprinkle’ on the Bruins’ ML (+190)

UCLA Bruins odds' vs. the Oregon Ducks at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 22 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
UCLA Bruins odds’ vs. the Oregon Ducks at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 22 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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