Proper-Reaction Monday: Why NFL Week 1 Means Almost Nothing
One game isn’t a blueprint—it's a blip. Let’s separate panic from perspective.
The NFL is officially back! Of the 32 teams in the league, 30 have played exactly one game. Yet, people are going to pretend that one out of 17 games is plenty of information to inform us about how the rest of the season will go.
It's not. Like, at all.
There's arguably no bigger "overreaction day" on the entire sports calendar than the first Monday of the NFL season. After months of zero information (essentially), we finally saw teams on the field playing games that matter.
But we must remember that Week 1 accounts for less than 6% of the entire season.
People in the sports media are going to arrive at wild conclusions based on that small amount of information. What if you walked into a used car dealership and the salesperson said, "Hey, here's 5.9% of the total information about this car. You ready to buy?"
But here we are, every season, making decisions based on 5.9% of the information. Nonsense. Let's take a look at some of the vast overreactions seen across the landscape and break them down.
The Dolphins are the Worst Team in the NFL
No team embarrassed itself more in Week 1 than the Miami Dolphins. They were nearly shut out by the Indianapolis Colts, if not for a late-game touchdown on a fluky fourth-down play. On defense, they allowed Indianapolis—a team led by Daniel Jones—to score on all seven of its drives.
It was bad. There's no way around that.
Indianapolis Colts players celebrate after a play during the second half against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Trevor Ruszkowski/Imagn Images)
But does that make the Dolphins the worst team in the NFL? Of course not. Did everyone suddenly forget that the Browns exist? Or the Patriots? What about the Tennessee Titans, who lost despite winning the turnover battle against Denver 4-1? And that's just the AFC.
The New York Giants aren't going to be good and neither are the New Orleans Saints. Or the Carolina Panthers.
I'd be willing to bet Miami finishes with a better record than every team listed above. Now, does that make Miami good? No, it doesn't. There are real concerns about the Dolphins, and Mike McDaniel should be squarely on the hot seat.
But they're not the worst team in the NFL. Quite frankly, they're not even that close to being the worst.
The Chiefs' Dynasty is Dead
After one game, it seems everyone is ready to dance on the grave of the Kansas City Chiefs' dynasty. Now, should Chiefs' fans be concerned about the team? Yes. The offense is severely lacking in playmakers, particularly with Rashee Rice serving a six-game suspension and Xavier Worthy suffering an injury on the first drive against the Chargers.
Travis Kelce looks completely washed, despite reports that he rededicated himself to football this past offseason. It seems that getting engaged to Taylor Swift must have granted Kelce access to her PR team because he looked incredibly slow on Friday night and wasn't on the same page as Patrick Mahomes on multiple occasions.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce looks on against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half during a Week 1 NFL game at Corinthians Arena.
(Amanda Perobelli/Reuters via Imagn Images)
All that being said, the Chiefs still have Mahomes and Andy Reid is still the head coach. As long as those two are in place, the Chiefs are a threat. As I spelled out in the intro, this was just one game. Kansas City has started slow before. They lost their opener in 2023 before going on to win the Super Bowl. They started 3-4 in 2021 and reached the AFC Championship. They were just 6-4 in 2019 before winning nine straight en route to the first Mahomes Super Bowl win.
To sum up: there are legitimate questions about the Kansas City Chiefs this season, particularly because of how Baltimore and Buffalo looked on Sunday Night Football. But the dynasty is far from dead. Declaring that after Week 1 is a major overreaction.
The Packers are the Team to Beat in the NFC
I actually believe this is not an overreaction, but the proper reaction to what we saw in Week 1. Many pegged Green Bay as a sleeper Super Bowl contender prior to the season and the addition of Micah Parsons only furthered that prediction.
I have my doubts about Jordan Love, but it almost doesn't matter. The Green Bay defense has a chance to be a real difference-maker and all the elite quarterbacks reside in the AFC (save for, maybe, Jayden Daniels). The point is that the Packers might not need Love to be elite to contend for a championship.
The Lions clearly missed their two coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who left to take NFL head coaching gigs. The Philadelphia Eagles defense also struggled mightily against the Dallas Cowboys before the lightning delay stopped both offensive units in their tracks.
Still, the Eagles seem like the best bet to come out of the NFC for the third time in the past four seasons. So, while the Packers aren't quite "the team to beat" in the conference, they just might be the second-best squad.
Aaron Rodgers is Back!
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets provided fans with one of the most exciting games in Week 1. At least until the Ravens and Bills rocked everyone's world. But I'm not buying most of what we saw in that one.
Rodgers played well, there's no question. Going to the Jets, a horribly-run franchise, was a terrible career choice. Any quarterback looks better playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers (just ask Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson).
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers warms up before the NFL Week 1 game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.
(Wendell Cruz/Imagn Images)
While Rodgers could definitely lead Pittsburgh to the postseason, mostly thanks to head coach Mike Tomlin, he's far from a high-level NFL quarterback at this stage of his career. Yes, he's an upgrade over the aforementioned Pickett and Wilson (and Justin Fields, who I'll get to in a minute), but is that really the bar to which we should hold Rodgers?
Speaking of Fields, he looked OK in Week 1. But he stinks. I've written it many, many times and nothing has changed. Much like Sam Darnold, Fields can show flashes, but we know who he is at this point in his career. He's a running back who throws the football (generally not very well) and can't read a defense to save his life. The Jets aren't going to be good this season and no one should be fooled by the Week 1 anomaly.
In fact, both of these offenses could be mediocre-to-bad despite the Sunday outbursts.
That's it for this week … check back next week for another edition of Proper-Reaction Monday, and feel free to send me your proper reactions (or overreactions, honestly) via email at dan.zaksheske@outkick.com.