For Penn State, Eli Drinkwitz Would Be James Franklin 2.0

With all the madness surrounding Lane Kiffin and the three teams at the center of that coaching saga, there is a premiere job in the Big Ten that isn't receiving nearly the attention it deserves.

Penn State fired their head coach of over a decade last month, and, at least to my knowledge, I haven't heard much more than a peep about where they are turning their focus.

One name I have seen pop up, though, both at the beginning of the search and as recently as earlier this week, is Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz.

Let me at least get the platitudes out of the way before I debunk this potential hire for what it is: a disaster waiting to happen.

Eli Drinkwitz is a fine coach.

He's keeping the Missouri Tigers largely relevant, which is saying a lot since there isn't a lot of history to discuss with Mizzou in recent years before Drinkwitz, save for a couple of miracle runs to the SEC Championship Game in 2013 and '14.

But that is exactly the issue: Drinkwitz is a fine coach for Mizzou.

If you peel some of the layers back just a little bit, you'll see that Eli Drinkwitz is eerily similar to the man they just handed walking papers to in Happy Valley not too long ago.

Propped Up By An Easy Schedule

Playing in a conference like the SEC or Big Ten is tough, no matter which way you slice it, but some teams definitely draw an easier schedule than others.

The Missouri Tigers have been the beneficiaries of the scheduling gods being very benevolent towards them, particularly around 2023 when Drinkwitz really "figured it out" (coincidence?).

That season featured a miracle run in which the Tigers finished 11-2 and ended the season ranked inside the AP top-10, but a lot of their biggest wins were either fluky or fools gold.

They defeated three ranked teams in the regular season, one of which came against Kentucky, who finished the season 7-6.

Another was against Kansas State in which they needed a record-setting field goal in the final seconds to pull off the victory.

A win is a win, sure, but context has to matter when you're diving deep into a coach's resume.

Oh, and that win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl? The Buckeyes were starting someone named Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback.

And plus, we are in the SEC, we don't count bowl games anyway!

Missouri won 10 games in 2024, but failed to notch a single victory over a team that finished in the top-25 or had a win total higher than seven.

This season is featuring more of the same from Drinkwitz and company, with their record against ranked opponents dropping to 0-3 on the season.

To provide the cherry on top of this turd sundae, Drinkwitz's record against teams with a winning record in conference play since arriving at Mizzou? 0-15.

To put it plainly, Drinkwitz beats the teams he "should" beat and loses to the teams he "should" lose to.

Sound familiar?

Speaking of which…

Abysmal Record vs. Top-10 Teams

It has been well documented that James Franklin's record against top-10 teams isn't the best in the business, but what if I told you Drinkwitz's record is virtually identical (from a percentage standpoint, anyway).

Franklin's 4-21 tally against top-10 teams in his time at Penn State equates to a 16% win rate.

While that's pretty bad for a coach who many considered one of the best in the country as recently as August of this year, Drinkwitz sports a 1-9 record vs. top-ten opponents.

For those mathematically challenged, that's a 10% win rate, and, as I noted above, that number could have been zero had it not been for their Cotton Bowl matchup against a heavily undermanned Ohio State team.

For the record, his 7-16 mark against top-25 teams isn't much better either.

Is there a chance Drinkwitz "levels up" going to Penn State from Missouri?

Maybe.

But he hasn't shown any signs to suggest so, as there are a ton of metrics to back up the fact that Drinkwitz is who he is at this point.

He's a decent recruiter who beats bad teams and struggles against good ones.

I am on record saying that I supported Penn State's decision to fire Franklin, but that also came with the caveat that the Nittany Lions would take a shot at a "ceiling hire."

After guys like Lane Kiffin and Curt Cignetti took their names off the board with regard to the Penn State coaching search, the next call should have been to someone who represented a "rocket ship" trajectory.

Coaches like Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State or Eric Morris at North Texas are at least young and promising with enough of a ceiling to be intriguing.

It's like hiring a 12-year MLB vet hitting .250 vs. some kid in Triple A who is putting up insane power numbers.

Sure, he could flame out in the big leagues, but there is still potential there, unlike the guy you know will never be an All-Star.

If the Nittany Lions end up hiring Eli Drinkwitz, they should have just kept James Franklin, because the two are probably more identical than anyone in Happy Valley wants to admit.