Majority Of NFL Teams Are Busy Hiring Their Next Ex-Head Coach During This Cycle

This NFL coach cycle – with its firings and ensuing, looming hirings – is big news, but it could be much ado about nothing. That's because if this cycle is anything like others this decade, we're witnessing a rinse and repeat exercise.

Most of the eight teams that are still searching for a head coach after the New York Giants focused in on John Harbaugh are simply hiring their future ex-head coach.

Don't believe me? 

Since 2020, NFL teams have hired new head coaches 41 times. Think about how high that number is considering there are 32 teams.

Anyway, 25 of those new coaches were then fired.

Dublin , Ireland - 28 September 2025; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell  before the 2025 NFL International Game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Minnesota Vikings at Croke Park in Dublin. (Photo By Seb Daly/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

NFL Teams Fail A Lot At Hiring Coaches

So, nearly 61 percent of the coaches hired this decade have already been fired. Said another way, NFL teams hiring head coaches this decade fail a significant majority of the time when they pick their new coach.

And, yes, the numbers skew to the negative because of 2020 and 2022, which have been bloodbaths. But they definitely skew toward success because of the 2025 hiring cycle, after which only one of the seven coaches hired last January – Pete Carroll – has already been fired.

In 2020 and 2022, 14 teams hired new head coaches. Thirteen of those coaches have already been fired. 

Quick … name the one that remains … 

Kevin O'Connell of the Minnesota Vikings, hired in 2022, is the only head coach that is still on the job.

The 2022 Hiring Cycle Was A Blood Bath

Matt Eberflus was fired by the Bears. Doug Pederson was fired by the Jaguars. Josh McDaniels was fired by the Raiders. Dennis Allen was fired by the Saints. Brian Daboll was fired by the Giants. Mike McDaniel was fired by the Dolphins. Lovie Smith was fired after one season by the Texans. Nathaniel Hackett was fired after five games by the Broncos.

Three of those coaches – Pederson, Daboll and McDaniel – took their teams to the playoffs at least once. And they were fired anyway.

And while we have the benefit of four full seasons to weigh the effectiveness of that 2022 class, it doesn't mean what happened before and in ensuing classes has trended much differently.

In 2023, five new coaches were hired.

Sean Payton (Broncos), Shane Steichen (Colts), DeMeco Ryans (Texans), Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) and Frank Reich (Panthers) are probably more typical of what happens to coaches after they're hired.

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - DECEMBER 22: Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon of the Indianapolis Colts walks off the field for halftime during an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 22, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Irsay-Gordon Puts Steichen On Hot Seat

Two of these – Payton and Ryans – have been home runs. Both are in the divisional round of the playoffs this weekend.

But there's the other side of that coin in that Gannon was fired by the Cardinals 11 days ago after he delivered a horrible 15-36 record in three non-playoff seasons. And Reich, well, he didn't even make it through his first full season. He was fired in November of 2023 after he lost 10 of the 11 games he coached.

Steichen is the middle ground in that class. He has a 25-26 record with losing seasons in two of his three years. He also hasn't been to the playoffs. 

Colts controlling owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon made it clear after this season ended with the Colts losing seven consecutive games that Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard will be on the hot seat for 2026.

"The sense of urgency for them to perform and deliver has never been higher," she said.

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris looks on before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Raheem Morris Lasted Two Seasons With Falcons

In 2024, eight new coaches were hired. Four have already been fired.

Raheem Morris lasted only two seasons with the Falcons, Brian Callahan lasted only 23 games in Tennessee, only four of which he won. That's terrible and yet better than both Antonio Pierce and Jerod Mayo who were fired after their first season.

The Raiders, by the way, were arguably the NFL's worst team this season, which is the reason they fired Carroll after only one year. But they are also the worst NFL team at identifying the right coach.

The Raiders have fired Jon Gruden, Josh McDaniels, Pierce and Carroll this decade. So, yes, Las Vegas odds say the Las Vegas team is going to get it wrong again this cycle.

And all this proves the club owners, general managers or team presidents that are hiring these coaches get it wrong more often than not.

The amazing thing is these people who are supposed to be expert at identifying coaching talent (they're not) often amplify the mistakes of others.

The Cleveland Browns fired Kevin Stefanski mere hours after this regular-season ended. The Miami Dolphins took four days after the season ended, but they fired McDaniel.

And already the Dolphins have interviewed Stefanski as their potential new coach and the Browns have interviewed McDaniel as their potential new coach.

So both teams think the other obviously got it wrong.

Nov 9, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel talks to an official during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

McDaniel A Hot Candidate But Why?

McDaniel has actually gotten way more head coach interviews than I thought possible because I don't think he's really head coach material. He's good at drawing up plays, identifying holes in a defense and devising a way to attack those. He's also a solid, although not masterful, play-caller. The guy is obviously an offensive coordinator type.

But he is in no way an NFL franchise leader. 

Adaptability is necessary for an NFL coach, but one with a fluctuating personality is not good. That was part of McDaniel's problem in that he was a players' coach when he arrived in Miami, but when guys skipped or were late to meetings and even late to practice, McDaniel couldn't stop the problem. 

He fined players, he tried to become stern. But it was too late. 

Some players, defensive back Jalen Ramsey among them, lost respect for him. That's the same Ramsey who stood and applauded Mike Tomlin when the Steelers coach this week announced to the locker room he was stepping down. 

And yet, the Ravens – the rough-and-tumble Ravens! – have interviewed him for their head coach job. Imagine firing Harbaugh and thinking McDaniel could be an upgrade.

It's the kind of thinking that has led NFL teams to get it wrong more than 60 percent of the time when hiring coaches this decade.