Josh Pate Gives Grim Outlook On Florida State's Immediate Future

I have spent a fair amount of time recently discussing the Florida State Seminoles and, more specifically, just how grim things are looking in Tallahassee right now.

You could argue part of that is because I am a fan of a rival team, but I do think even to the objective, unbiased viewer, the outlook isn't exactly rosy for Noles fans in 2026.

One of those "objective, unbiased viewers" is none other than Josh Pate, and he discussed the murky future for the Seminoles on the latest episode of Josh Pate's College Football Show.

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"I think they've got to improve to be mediocre right now," Pate said.

"Everyone hates on average. Average is not the worst thing in the world, bad is the worst thing in the world."

Pate went on to discuss the mirage of Florida State's Vegas win total, stating that while 6.5 wins looks like an improvement on the surface, when given a different, more difficult schedule, it paints a different picture and knocks the Noles down two full projected wins.

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"If we changed nothing about Florida State's team, but we give them Florida's schedule this year," Pate said, "their over/under win total would be 4.5… which would be second-lowest in the SEC behind only Arkansas."

Brutal.

So why does Florida State have so far to climb still?

Mike Norvell.

As I had often opined in the past, Pate agrees that FSU's aggressive overreliance on the transfer portal following striking (fool's) gold in 2022 and 2023 may have doomed the rest of Norvell's tenure in the state's capitol.

For everyone who points to guys like Curt Cignietti and, to a lesser extent, Lane Kiffin, as shining examples of how to build a championship roster through the transfer portal, Mike Norvell is the example on the other end of the spectrum.

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"I don't know how to sell you on this football team," explains Pate.

"If I were to look at this roster, I'll give you Deuce Robinson. Outside of him, how many top-ten players at their position exist on this roster? I would say not many."

It's a harsh critique, but a fair one.

No one is going to confuse this Florida State roster for the 2019 LSU Tigers, so the strategy as a fan of the program might be to punt on 2026 and pray the team does badly enough that you can FINALLY rid yourselves of that awful Mike Norvell contract.

That may not be what Noles fans want to hear right now, but it's the truth.