Four Juicy First Round Upsets To Whet Your March Madness Whistle

With a full bracket finally at our disposal, it's time to take the plunge and start filling that sucker out.

But, if you're like most people, you want to seem smart at parties and pick some cool upsets that will make you the toast of March Madness.

Where do you even begin to pick them? There's always a 12 over a 5, and a team in the First Four usually goes on a little run in the tournament every year, but how do you know when and where to pick your upsets properly?

I've got you covered! Here are four matchups in the first round that are prime upset material.

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4. VCU (11) Over North Carolina (6)

READ: OutKick's 2026 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: South And Midwest Regions

We have to address the elephant in the room when it comes to this game: if the Tar Heels had future lottery pick Caleb Wilson in their lineup, I don't think this game would be close. But Wilson is out for the rest of the postseason, and North Carolina is a different team without him.

That being said, VCU is a game opponent for anyone, and they are catching Carolina at the perfect time, less than two weeks after learning their talisman will be absent all March.

The Rams protect the ball very well and are a great three-point shooting team. If you needed a recipe for an upset, there it is.

This one will be tight regardless, and if it gets down to crunch time, UNC won't have their otherworldly freshman to turn to and bail them out.

I really like VCU to pull the upset here over the Tar Heels.

3. USF (11) Over Louisville (6)

READ: OutKick's 2026 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: East And West Regions

If you're looking for a fun upset to watch from a fast-paced tempo perspective, this 6 vs. 11 matchup is your bag.

Both USF and Louisville love to push the pace, and this one could be a high-scoring affair that gets tight down the stretch.

The Cardinals were missing their best player in Mikel Brown Jr. for the entire ACC Tournament, and although it's rumored he will be back for their game against the Bulls, who knows whether he's fully healthy or still dealing with some of the residual effects of his lower back injury.

USF has a couple of wins over some tournament teams, including everyone's first round darling this year, Utah State, and although those teams aren't as talented as Louisville, they do have some quality wins on their ledger as well as a close loss to Bama.

Louisville has been up and down all year, even with Brown in the lineup, so this is an upset that is ripe for the picking.

2. Akron (12) Over Texas Tech (5)

I was THIS close to not picking a 12 over a 5 this year.

Call me a contrarian (because I am) but I always consider not doing any 12 over 5 upsets before plugging my nose and picking one, because it's statistically a near lock.

With all that being said, Akron is a very good Mid-Major team. Their offensive metrics are "good enough," they shoot well, both from the field (50%) and from three (38%) and they are a healthy rebounding squad.

Conversely, Texas Tech lost their best player, JT Toppin, to a season-ending injury, and much like North Carolina, I have to wonder what that does to their psyche heading into Tournament play.

Even Vegas thinks this one will be close, as the spread sits at 7.5 as of Monday afternoon, and I have a feeling this will be our 12 over 5 upset this year.

1. Troy (13) Over Nebraska (4)

I mentioned this in my bracket breakdown piece from Sunday, but I just have a gut feeling that Nebraska will be stunned in the first round of the Tournament this year.

While I'm picking this partly off of vibes as well as the fact that Nebraska hasn't won a single game in the NCAA Tournament in the history of their program, I don't want to overlook Troy as a basketball team.

The Trojans will take advantage of the Huskers' woeful offense as well as the fact that Nebraska has scuffled quite a bit leading up to the Tournament, so this one will be a close game.

When it gets down to crunch time, I think Nebraska's lack of March DNA will rear its ugly head, and Troy will be the beneficiaries of a first round meltdown.

Call it a hunch, but I really think the Trojans will burst the "Nebrasketball" bubble on Thursday.