This Could Be The Last Major League Baseball Season For A While

Major League Baseball fans woke up Friday morning to all-too familiar news. The Los Angeles Dodgers, yet again, spent big money on a marquee free agent. 

Once again, they outbid everyone else. Kyle Tucker signed with LA overnight to the tune of $240 million. The best outfielder on the free agent market is gone, and he went where pretty much all the good baseball players go. Los Angeles. Gavin Newsom's California. 

Disgusting!

Predictable? You betcha. This has become commonplace in MLB for years now. Fans are numb to it. But buddy, that doesn't mean they're accepting it. 

There's a prevailing notion in the industry right now that we're headed to a lockout this time next year. The current CBA is up at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1. Fans are furious. Owners want a hard cap. Players don't. The Dodgers signing Kyle Tucker overnight, after a relatively quiet offseason, only fanned the flames. 

And here's the reality: this upcoming season, which starts in less than 70 days, could be the last for quite some time. 

Not enough people are talking about LA's TV deal

So, here's the thing. Well, a couple things …

The sport is not "dying." That's not true, at all. In fact, quite the opposite. Major League Baseball has experienced a rebirth in recent years. Attendance is up. TV ratings are up. I'd argue interest in baseball is the highest right now that it's been in two decades. 

Which makes what is coming in 2027 that much harder to stomach. Call it whatever you want. Work stoppage. Strike. Lockout. It's coming next season. There is no more kicking the can down the road. It's going to happen. Last night didn't help. 

Now, folks are furious at the Dodgers today, and I get it. But the Dodgers are not completely at fault here. And trust me, I'm no Dodgers fan. I'm a Red Sox fan. I hate the Dodgers. 

But fair is fair, and this isn't all on them. LA can do what they do for a couple reasons, but the biggest – and probably the least-talked about – is the TV deal. 

The Dodgers signed a lucrative TV deal with Time Warner (SportsNet LA) a decade ago, which was incredible timing given what's happened to the industry since. 

For those who don't know, the sports TV industry, especially in baseball, has cratered. Cord-cutting, streaming, you name it. Regional Sports Networks are cooked. They're dying. 

Essentially, LA locked in 25 years of peak TV money, when that money no longer exists for other teams. But LA signed a 25-year, $8 billion deal in 2013-14, which means they're already starting each new season with an unbelievable budgetary floor. 

They're making roughly $300-350 million per year in TV money, and that payout comes no matter how the team performs. 

Other teams, smaller-market teams, ain't anywhere close to that number. Think somewhere in the ballpark of $80 million. 

That's part of this. Not all of it, of course. 

MLB, and greedy owners, are at fault here far more than the Dodgers

Yes, every single team benefits from the Dodgers' insane revenue stream (that TV number doesn't even include ticket prices, sponsorship dollars, etc …) because 48% of local revenue is sent to MLB’s revenue-sharing system, which is then redistributed to all 30 teams. 

The Dodgers, Yankees and Mets (to name a few) are the MLB examples of rising tides lifting all boats. The more money those teams make, the bigger the distribution pool is for the rest of the league. 

So, if the Marlins and Pirates, for example, are getting X-amount of dollars in the revenue sharing pool each year, but not signing free agents (or even trying), where is that money going? It's a fair question. That's not a Dodgers problem. 

Yes, the Dodgers do keep the other 52% of their revenue from the previous year, which is where they also have an advantage. 

Because of their market, the lucrative TV deal, and MLB's weak laws surrounding luxury tax penalties and deferrals, LA essentially prints money each season. And it doesn't matter who they sign, and for how much. It just doesn't. Not in today's landscape. 

They can sign Shohei Ohtani, and just defer all the big money to the 2030s because A) MLB allows it, and B) they KNOW they're going to have revenue to cover it when the bill comes due thanks to the 25-year contract (among other things). They will have the money. So defer it all, and deal with it later. 

Same with Mookie Betts. Same with Freddie Freeman. Same with Kyle Tucker. Rinse, wash, repeat. 

So, what happens now?

Few teams can compete with this well-oiled machine, by the way. The Yankees can. The Mets can. The Red Sox could, if they wanted to. Very few want to. Most can't. 

A lot of teams also refuse to spend. Owners look at it like bad business. They see the risk/reward in spending, and they don't do it. The Dodgers face minimal risk. 

If a contract doesn't work out, and a player ends up being a bust, it won't really hurt them. There is very little risk, and a ton of reward, in LA. That's not the case for most mid-and small-market teams.

So, what's going to happen in about 11 months? Well, there will most likely be a lockout. Owners will say competitive balance is impossible without spending controls (salary cap). 

Players will say the money exists, but teams don't spend it. 

Things will get messy. Fans will ultimately lose out because the season will be in major jeopardy. Games could very well get canceled. 

And once that happens, the two sides will probably find some sort of middle-ground (no salary cap, but harsher luxury tax penalties and no referrals) that will just, once again, kick this can down the road and create even more tension moving forward. 

Bottom line? Enjoy this season, baseball fans. It could be our last normal one for a while.