Clay Travis's Starting 11: Billy Napier's Seat Gets Hotter Edition

There wasn't much drama this weekend in college football, so let me give you a sense of where we are with a third of the season complete — at least if your team hasn't had one of the bye weeks yet.

I think we've established the four best teams in the Big Ten: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Indiana.

You can argue about the order of these teams, but we'll get the first big clash between these four next week when Oregon travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State, and I don't think anyone can argue against these as the top four teams.

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 20: Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) passes the ball during the college football between the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers on September 20, 2025 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In the ACC, I think we've established Miami and Florida State are the top duo and then there's a battle over the third-best team and lots of teams could make that case right now.

In the Big 12, Texas Tech, by virtue of the dominant road win over Utah, a team I think is very solid, has taken an early lead in the clubhouse for best in conference.

Notre Dame is unlikely, I believe, to run the table and won't be in the playoff even though the Irish got their first win of the season.

That leaves us with the SEC, which I believe is going to be a drunken jet-ski race all season long. As you'll see in my SEC power rankings, there's a strong argument that Vanderbilt, who put 70! on Georgia State Saturday night, has been the most impressive team so far this season. (Seriously, there were lots of months where Vandy didn't score 70 points, much less in one game.)  

My playoff prediction right now: Three from the Big Ten, one from the Big 12, two from the ACC, one from the non-power conference, and five from the SEC.

1. Miami bulldozed Florida and now any time his phone rings, Billy Napier's tenure as Gators head coach might be over

At the half, Florida had 32 yards of offense, and it was only thanks to a very solid defensive effort that Miami's lead was limited to 13-0. And while Florida deserves credit for a late third quarter drive that made it 13-7, Miami pulled away late to drop the Gators to 1-3 as they enter their first bye week.

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 20:  Miami wide receiver CJ Daniels (7) runs after a reception in the third quarter as the Miami Hurricanes faced the Florida Gators on September 20, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

So what should Florida do now? If you're going to fire Napier early in the season, you probably want to do it on a bye week. Then the question becomes, do you want to fire him before the Georgia game or before the Texas game? Texas travels to Gainesville in two weeks. Then comes a game at Texas A&M. Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida State are still on the Gator schedule too.

4-8 seems like the best Florida could do at this point and that might be a stretch goal.

Honestly, I get giving the guy a chance to right the ship, but DJ Lagway, after throwing five interceptions last week, was essentially unable to throw the ball at all this week. This offense, put simply, is just a disaster and there's no way to expect it to suddenly get better against the quality of opponent the Gators have coming up. I just don't see the point in waiting if you're already convinced the results aren't going to get any better.  

On the flip side, I've got Miami as my number one team and the ACC is so weak at this point that the Hurricanes only have one game against a top 25 team left — Florida State. And that feels like a game that, given the drop-off after these two, is likely to be a rematch in the ACC title game.  

2. Texas Tech smoked Utah to lay claim to best team in the Big 12 status

You want a truly crazy stat?

Texas Tech doesn't have another top 25 team on their schedule right now.

Which is why I'm pretty much ready to pronounce the Big 12 a one-bid playoff league.

I suppose Iowa State and Texas Tech could both enter the Big 12 title game undefeated since they don't play in the regular season, but absent two undefeated teams meeting in the Big 12 title game, I just don't see how the league makes a claim for two bids.

But, man, this was a really impressive road win for Tech.  

Cody Campbell has bought himself a squad.

3. Oklahoma outlasted Auburn

After a quarterback transfer that saw Jackson Arnold leave Oklahoma and head to Auburn only to have Arnold come back to play against Oklahoma a year later, it was pretty clear why Oklahoma moved on to John Mateer.

Arnold was sacked ten times, often for holding the football too long, and when he did have a chance to make a big play, he missed a wide open touchdown throw late in the third quarter that could have flipped momentum in a big way.

Auburn will go back and watch the film on this game and feel like they let a game get away and Oklahoma fans will get ready for the Red River Rivalry, knowing they have a real shot at the playoff if Mateer continues to improve.

In fact, if Oklahoma could beat Texas in a couple of weeks, there's an outside shot the Sooners could roll into Neyland Stadium undefeated.

As for Auburn, the season will probably be decided in the next three games: at Texas A&M, Georgia, and Missouri. After this, the schedule eases somewhat, but my concern is Arnold holds the ball too long and doesn't see the field well. If you shut down his scrambling, you win.

Which is why this feels like a 7-5 caliber Tiger team.

4. Nebraska still can't win a big game as Michigan holds on in Lincoln

I was wrong on this one, Cornhusker fans, I thought you guys were ready to win a big game.

But you weren't.

And you guys probably had less faith than I did in your team.  

Michigan pretty much controlled this game from start to finish, even though the passing game with Bryce Underwood is still a work in progress. If the Wolverines defend the hail mary at the end of the half, they win this game going away.

The line of scrimmage was a bloodbath with Michigan running the ball 33 times for 286 yards, an average of 8.7 yards a carry.

Are the Wolverines good enough to get to the Ohio State game with their playoff chances still alive? I still don't think so. But I also thought they'd lose this game, so maybe they can continue to improve in the passing game with Underwood and get past games at USC, at Michigan State and at Maryland before they host Ohio State in the Big House with a playoff berth on the line.

As for Nebraska, I love this fan base, but, man, it has been ages since the Cornhuskers mattered in major college football.

And a part of me just keeps thinking that while joining the Big Ten might have been a financially smart decision, it was devastating when it comes to recruiting because it cut Nebraska off from Texas recruits. The Cornhuskers, to me, still feel like a bit of an odd fit in the Big Ten.  

5. Indiana crushed Illinois, making a strong case to be the Big Ten's fourth-best team

As for Illinois, it's hard to lose this bad and be considered a top 25 team, much less a playoff contender. In fact, I'm removing the Illini from top 25 contention. Indiana outgained Illinois 579 yards to 161 yards and outrushed the Illini 312 to 2!

Who was the moron who picked Illinois to cover in this game?

Oh, that's right, me.

Unlike last year when Indiana dodged most of the good teams in the Big Ten en route to a playoff spot, the Hoosiers have to go to Oregon and to Penn State. Without winning either of those games, I suspect we will hear a ton about this game in the event Indiana posts a 10-2 record on the season.  

There's always a ton of talk about overranked teams. By the way, how about Illinois being in the top ten despite the resume being wins over Western Illinois, Western Michigan and Duke? It's rare a team loses a single game and goes from the top ten to unranked, but I think that's deserved this week.

6. Missouri got to 4-0 with a win over South Carolina

LaNorris Sellers is an incredible talent — right now forecast to potentially be the first quarterback taken in the 2026 NFL Draft — but I think we're seeing that without him playing like Superman, the Gamecocks don't have the offensive support around him, particularly in the running game, to beat solid teams.

South Carolina passed for 302 yards, but ran for -9. Meanwhile, Mizzou ran for 285 yards, just physically dominating the line of scrimmage.

The difficulty running the football magnifies the fact that Sellers is still really young at the position. Let me hit you with a two-play sequence to illustrate this: Late in the third quarter, Sellers took a sack to lose 18 yards, something that just can't happen, but was the result of Sellers just trying to do too much and refusing to quit on the play. The next play was a holding and suddenly the Gamecocks, who had been driving to take the lead, found themselves facing a 3rd and 37.

What happens then?

A 33-yard pass, perfectly placed and perfectly timed by Sellers on the run.

COLUMBIA, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 20: LaNorris Sellers #16 of the South Carolina Gamecocks scrambles from Sterling Webb #10 of the Missouri Tigers during the third quarter against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Columbia, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Le/Getty Images)

I'm not sure how many other players in college football can make this throw, maybe not any.

That led to a field goal to give South Carolina its last lead of the game.

But later Sellers missed a third down throw on a crossing route that might have won his team the game.  

Unfortunately for South Carolina, even as talented as Sellers is, they've probably played themselves out of the SEC and playoff race. With LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all still to play in conference, the Gamecocks would have to run the table to find themselves in the playoff discussion. And I don't think even the most diehard Gamecock fan in the country would make an argument that's likely to happen.

As for Mizzou, I think they have significant defensive liabilities in the secondary -- which will likely be exploited by some of the top SEC passing attacks -- but the Tigers will beat UMass next week and then have a bye week to get ready for Alabama.

At 5-0 with the Tide coming to town, this will be one of the biggest home games in Mizzou football history, certainly among the biggest since the Tigers entered the SEC.

And I think that game will be a shootout, with Mizzou having a good chance to win, in fact, I predicted the Tigers would win that game a few weeks ago.

And as SEC schedules go, given that theirs is comparatively favorable, Mizzou has a real shot to enter November in serious playoff contention.  

7. Clemson is finished for the season and now we're back to the question of the past several years: is Dabo done there too?

The Tigers are 1-3, have essentially eliminated themselves from ACC contention, and are now relegated to playing spoiler for the remainder of the season.

But the bigger question that will linger is about Dabo's future.

After double-digit winning seasons from 2014 to 2022, Clemson slipped to 9-4, 4-4 in the ACC in 2023. But after a slow start in 2024, Clemson caught fire, won the ACC, and advanced to the playoff. With so many starters returning, expectations were high. And then the Tigers just never really launched at all this year. In particular, the offense floundered in the opener against LSU and has never really rounded into form.

Dabo Swinney. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Now we're going to return to the question of whether Dabo and the NIL era fit.

I think it's also fair to ask how much of Dabo's success was catching lightning in a bottle with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence back to back at quarterback, two of the best quarterbacks we've seen in college football this century. Yes, there was a ton of talent around these guys too, but since their departure from Clemson, the Tigers have regressed a great deal. 

But even in 2023, Dabo still won nine games.

With three losses already in 2025, two of those at home, I think it's fair to say 8-4 or 7-5 feel likely for the Tigers.

If that happens, talk will increase, primarily led by questions of just how much Dabo loves the new era of college football.

Dabo's too successful for Clemson to ever fire him, but does he have it in him to rebuild another title team? Does he want to do it? I think those questions will become common among the Clemson faithful.  

8. The Bill Belichick story line is already over

After blowouts from TCU in week one and now Central Florida in week four, North Carolina is 2-2, doesn't play a top 25 team for the rest of the year, and all of the hype and attention of the offseason has already vanished.

Even Belichick's 24-year-old girlfriend, Jordon Hudson, isn't moving the needle like she did in the offseason.

North Carolina football is now what it has been for almost its entire history — irrelevant.

I have to admit, I expected there to be at least something interesting that happened in year one, but I was wrong.

ORLANDO, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 20: Head coach Bill Belichick of the North Carolina Tar Heels looks on prior to a game against the UCF Knights at FBC Mortgage Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Bill Belichick in year one was what Bill Belichick has been every year he's been a head coach without Tom Brady — unsuccessful.

A few years ago, Deion Sanders was all the offseason rage in college football, but year one with Deion produced a ton of storylines and quite a few upset victories. Year one with Belichick has produced no real stories on the actual field.

Yes, sure, I know some will argue that NIck Saban wasn't good in year one at Alabama either.

But the Tide were recruiting like gangbusters that first season under Saban.

And Saban was twenty years younger than Belichick is now. It's just hard for me to see how Chapel Bill is leading us anywhere compelling.

In fact, I'd actually wager now that his relationship with his girlfriend is likely to last longer than his relationship with North Carolina.

9. Poor Arkansas fans

I'm at a loss for words coming up with ways you guys lose games.

The Razorbacks blew a 28-10 lead against Memphis, fumbled late while setting up a winning score, and then allowed a backup quarterback to carry the entire defense past the first down marker on a third and eight quarterback sneak to end the game.

As a result, Arkansas is sitting at 2-2 with Notre Dame coming to Fayetteville next weekend.

I already predicted Arkansas would win this game, so I'm going to stick with that call, but I think most Razorback fans are ready to move on from Sam Pittman. But for a brief and glorious run under Bobby Petrino, the Razorbacks have mostly failed to excite their fan base.

With Jon Gruden rumors — the eternal Grumors — floating and a season unlikely to lead to better than 6-6, it feels like a coaching change is coming soon.

The question is, how many of the names Arkansas is considering will Florida be looking at too? And is there any competitive advantage to moving first here?

Oh, and congrats to Memphis, by the way, which will be favored in every game the rest of the way. The Tigers are in the playoff picture as a result of this comeback.

10. My OutKick National Top Ten

Remember, I rank teams entirely based on the on-field results, not what we expect to see, but what we actually saw.

As the season progresses, the rankings fluctuate less significantly. This week the biggest change is I've bumped down how much of a quality win beating Clemson was. As a result, I dropped both LSU and Georgia Tech in my top ten, including dropping Georgia Tech down outside the top ten overall. (I'd have them at eleven).

1. Miami
2. Vanderbilt
3. Florida State
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. Texas A&M
7. Texas Tech
8. LSU
9. Georgia
10. Indiana

11. My SEC power rankings 1-16

Again, I rank teams based entirely on what we have seen on the field, not what we expected to see before the season started.

With that in mind, the Vanderbilt Commodores remain my number one team.  

1. Vanderbilt
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas A&M
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Alabama
8. Mississippi State
9. Ole Miss
10. Missouri
11. Auburn
12. Texas
13. South Carolina
14. Kentucky
15. Arkansas
16. Florida