CBB With Danny Z: March Madness Is Here, AP Poll And Analytics Still Split On Some Big Names
The college basketball season’s biggest surprises, disappointments, and ongoing ranking arguments.
We kicked this series off in October by mapping where the AP Preseason Top 25 and KenPom didn’t see eye-to-eye, then circled back in December and January to see who was "more right" as real games piled up.
Now it’s March, which means college basketball jumps to the forefront of the sports calendar. The conference tournaments, Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament are around the corner, so it's time to start identifying the contenders and pretenders.
Below: the biggest movers since preseason in KenPom and in the AP, plus the biggest gaps right now between the two systems.
(Current rankings: AP Week 17 / KenPom data through games of Sunday, March 1.)
Biggest Movers Since Preseason (KenPom Reality vs. October Projections)
KenPom’s preseason "outliers" list was pretty clear: St. John’s, Vanderbilt, Baylor, Kentucky (and maybe Auburn/Arkansas) were the spots where the model and humans were most likely to disagree.
The Biggest Risers
No one compares to Nebraska when talking about "where the heck did they come from" teams in 2025-26. The Cornhuskers were outside KenPom's Top 50 and not on a single AP voter's ballot before the season started. But here we are in the first week of March, and it's time to start paying attention to the Huskers, who find themselves 11th in the KenPom rankings.
Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Pryce Sandfort runs onto the court while being greeted by alumni players before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats.
(Dylan Widger/Imagn Images)
The team started 20-0 before cooling off in February. Nebraska is 25-4 with three of its four losses coming against Michigan (second in KenPom rankings), Illinois (fifth) and Purdue (eighth). The Big Ten Tournament should provide a glimpse into the potential of this squad to make noise during the Big Dance.
If not for Nebraska, Virginia would be the team that no one saw coming. The Cavaliers, like the Cornhuskers, began the season outside the KenPom Top 50 (59th) before barreling their way up the charts (currently 17th). Virginia lost to Duke over the weekend, snapping a nine-game win streak. Still, the Cavs are 25-4 and poised to be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament.
Honorable mention goes to the aforementioned Duke and Michigan. While KenPom rated both teams highly in the preseason (Duke, seventh and Michigan, 11th), the system didn't predict just how incredible both teams would be this season. Duke is now first, just slightly ahead of Michigan.
The biggest fallers (the "oof" section)
USC added Chad Baker-Mazara and that… didn't work out. The team just dismissed him for electing to sit with fans in the stands rather than his teammates after exiting a game with an injury. Earlier in the year, the team lost Rodney Rice to a season-ending injury. So, it's no surprise that the Trojans went from a Top 25 KenPom team (22nd) to 67th in the first week of March.
Baylor doesn't have the "our best player got injured, and our second-best player is a huge jerk" excuse to fall back on. They just didn't live up to preseason expectations. KenPom had the Bears at 17th before the season, but they've since fallen outside the Top 50 (51st).
We've mentioned UCLA before, but it bears repeating that they are one of the biggest disappointments this season (from 10th preseason to 41st). Kentucky also had a big fall from a Top 5 team (fourth) to just inside the Top 25.
Biggest Movers Since Preseason (AP Reality vs. October Ballots)
The AP poll is supposed to move. If it didn’t, we’d all stop pretending it matters (it doesn't). But it's still fun to look at where the clueless voters decide to randomly rank teams throughout the year.
Biggest risers
Like with KenPom, Nebraska and Virginia both moved from outside the Top 25 in the preseason to inside the Top 15. The AP Poll ranks Nebraska ninth and Virginia 13th.
Michigan State started just inside the Top 25 (22nd) and now finds itself inside the Top 10 (eighth). Arizona is the biggest mover from middle-of-the-pack to top-of-the-board, vaulting from a preseason ranking of 13th to No. 2 in the country as of the latest poll. Iowa State also jumped from 16th to sixth. The AP Poll also moved undefeated Miami (OH) inside the Top 20 (19th).
Miami (OH) Redhawks guard Peter Suder celebrates after hitting a three against the Akron Zips.
(Ken Blaze/Imagn Images)
Biggest fallers
Purdue opened the season as the No. 1 team in the country but are now 15th. St. John’s, which the AP Poll always liked better than KenPom, fell from preseason No. 5 to No. 18 in the latest poll. Three teams that were ranked in the preseason have dropped out of the Top 25: BYU (eighth), UCLA (12th), and Creighton (23rd).
Where The AP Poll And KenPom Disagree
This is the fun part: teams where the number next to the name (AP) and the number behind the curtain (KenPom) still don’t match.
AP is way higher than KenPom
Miami (OH) might be the only undefeated team in college hoops, but KenPom still doesn't think the RedHawks belong anywhere near the NCAA Tournament. The analytics have Miami at 87th, while the AP voters slid Miami into the Top 25. This is the biggest disagreement between the two ranking systems.
North Carolina has been a major point of contention throughout the season between the AP Poll and KenPom and that hasn't changed. AP voters are still way higher on the name-brand Tar Heels (17th) than the analytics (28th in KenPom).
Speaking of Miami, the AP Poll is also higher on the other Miami (the one in Florida) than KenPom (AP 22 vs. KenPom 32). Same goes for UConn (AP 4 vs. KenPom 10).
KenPom is way higher than the AP
KenPom remains high on Vanderbilt (14th), as it has the entire season. The AP Poll has somewhat caught up, but still isn't all the way there (24th). As mentioned, AP voters dropped Purdue from No. 1 preseason to No. 15 now, but KenPom still has faith that the Boilermakers have the potential to make an NCAA Tournament run (eighth).
Another Big Ten team, Illinois, also fares better with the analytics nerds than the AP voters (KenPom 5 vs. AP 11), as does SEC squad Tennessee (KenPom 18 vs. AP 23). A few other teams worth mentioning: Louisville dropped out of the AP Top 25, but KenPom still likes the Cardinals (19th). Missouri isn't inside the Top 25, but they did receive the fourth-most votes among teams that didn't make the AP Poll. However, KenPom barely has the Tigers inside the Top 50 (47th).
One other interesting team is High Point, of all schools. The 27-4 Panthers are rolling through the Big South and received seven votes from AP voters. But KenPom isn't buying the hype, ranking them 91st. The same goes for a couple other schools that received a few AP votes: Dayton (75th in KenPom) and Navy (136th).
Roundball Roundup…
Miami (OH) is undefeated… and their coach tried to fight a speaker…
I swear Mick Cronin shows up in every edition of this column…
It's usually the coaches, but it's always nice to see a player give a great postgame rant…
When do locker room live videos ever go well?
That’s it for this edition. Want something included in the next "CBB With Danny Z"? Shoot me an email: dan.zaksheske@outkick.com or hit me on X: @RealDanZak.