CBB With Danny Z: AP Poll Vs. Analytics Enters New Year With New Gaps
A January 6 check-in on preseason projections, the biggest movers, and the widest gaps between human ballots and predictive metrics.
We kicked this off in October by mapping where the AP Preseason Top 25 and KenPom didn’t see eye-to-eye in college basketball, then circled back in December to see which ranking system performed best after a month. With the calendar flipping to 2026, it's only right to take another look at where we stand.
Quick catch-up if you missed the earlier chapters: St. John’s was the preseason lightning rod (AP No. 5 vs. KenPom No. 16), Creighton/Arkansas/Auburn/BYU/UNC skewed AP-heavy, while Gonzaga/Illinois/Tennessee were KenPom darlings. It became clear after one month that the number-crunching analytics bested the eye-test AP Poll voters. Is that still true as we enter the second half of the college basketball season?
Biggest Movers Since Preseason (KenPom Reality vs. October Projections)
As mentioned previously, KenPom tends to move more slowly than the knee-jerk week-to-week AP Poll. While analytics like to take a more holistic approach to a team's season, AP voters are more inclined to be swayed by a couple of good (or bad) games. That said, a few teams have moved quite a bit since the preseason in the KenPom rankings.
The biggest is Vanderbilt, a team that climbed from the teens into single digits thanks to a perfect start (14-0 as of January 6). Still, KenPom was way ahead of the AP voters on the Commodores. While the AP Top 25 didn't feature Vanderbilt in the preseason, KenPom had the squad inside the Top 20 (19th). They are now 6th in the KenPom rankings, but remain outside the AP Top 10 (No. 11).
KenPom has consistently been ahead of the AP Poll with regard to Vanderbilt.
(Wesley Hale/Imagn Images)
The biggest miss from KenPom so far appears to be Arizona. Both ranking systems had the Wildcats in the teens to start the year (KP 15, AP 13), but KenPom was reluctant to push Arizona up the board in December (8th on December 1). However, AP voters jumped Arizona to No. 2 in the first December poll. KenPom is finally onboard with Arizona, now ranking the Wildcats second in the nation behind only Michigan.
Iowa State represents another school where KenPom was earlier to recognize the team's overall ability. Despite an undefeated start, AP voters only moved the Cyclones from No. 16 to No. 10 from preseason to December. Conversely, KenPom leaped Iowa State from preseason 13th to 4th on December 1. Iowa State still hasn't lost a game and finds itself at No. 3 in both rankings on January 6.
KenPom liked SEC powerhouses Florida and Kentucky much more than their early-season performance warranted. Florida was 2nd in the preseason and Kentucky sat at 4th. Both have dropped more than 10 spots (15th and 24th, respectively).
Biggest Movers Since Preseason (AP Reality vs. October Ballots)
The AP Poll continues to react to recent results, which makes sense. The AP Poll is only interesting if there is constant change. Otherwise, why would people bother looking at the poll? That leads to massive swings week-to-week and more opportunity for voters to make mistakes.
An interesting case study is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were unranked in the preseason AP Top 25 (they didn't receive a single vote). After a 14-0 start, Nebraska is now No. 10 in the country. KenPom didn't see much in Nebraska, either, ranking them 51st in the preseason.
While the AP Poll has overcorrected on Nebraska, KenPom remains slightly more bearish, placing Nebraska at 19th. We'll see if the Cornhuskers can continue the early-season dominance. AP voters believe they will, but KenPom is less convinced.
Nebraska is off to a perfect start, but the AP voters like the Cornhuskers more than the analytics.
(Dylan Widger/Imagn Images)
Michigan State is a school that has followed a near-identical trajectory in both rankings. The Spartans started in the 20s (KP 25, AP 22) and now find themselves at No. 12 in both rankings.
While KenPom dropped Florida from 3rd preseason to 15th now, AP voters have virtually given up on the Gators. Florida was No. 3 in the preseason and now finds itself outside the Top 25 (No. 35 if the poll ranked the "other teams receiving votes" section).
Where The AP Poll, KenPom Still Disagree
There are still some big gaps between the AP Poll and KenPom rankings. We've already mentioned a few (KenPom is still higher on Vanderbilt and Florida, while AP voters are higher on Nebraska), but there is more variance across the board.
North Carolina is a major point of contention, with the AP Poll featuring the Tar Heels (and their brand-name recognition) at No. 17 (they fell only one spot from December 1). KenPom has remained bearish on North Carolina, starting from 33rd in the preseason, to 31st on December 1, to 29th now. While KenPom has never considered UNC a Top 25 team, the AP Poll has never NOT considered them a Top 25 team (No. 25 preseason, No. 16 on December 1, No. 17 on January 6).
North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson is legit, but KenPom and AP voters disagree on how legit the Tar Heels are as a team.
(Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
On the flip side, KenPom loves Illinois, but the AP voters remain reluctant to give the Illini their due. It's important to note that Illinois is one school where KenPom has varied wildly throughout the season. They started the season 6th, fell to 17th on December 1 and are back inside the Top 10 at 8th now. By contrast, AP voters have remained fairly consistent (Illinois No. 17 preseason, No. 14 on December 1 and No. 16 on January 6).
Roundball Roundup…
Now that the nerdy stuff is out of the way, let's take a look at some of the highlights, lowlights, and weird stuff over the past week (or so) in college basketball.
Tom Izzo won't suffer fools, even when he's a former Michigan State player…
Submitted without comment…
This will never not be weird…
The toughest atmosphere in college basketball is… Nebraska!?
Speaking of Nebraska, this probably wasn't the best choice…
The Michigan State/Nebraska game was a content gold mine…
Micah Shrewsberry lost his mind on an official, but probably had a point…
Well, that's it for me this week. Want to see something included in the next edition of "CBB With Danny Z"? Shoot me an email: dan.zaksheske@outkick.com; or, send me a tweet @RealDanZak.