Let's See How The Preseason AP Poll And Analytics Performed After One Month Of College Hoops

The college basketball season is nearly one month old, so it seemed like a good time to take a look back at the preseason AP poll and KenPom's rankings to see how things have changed since the start of November. 

OutKick did a deep dive in late October, breaking down the differences between the two ranking systems and highlighted the key similarities and differences. For a quick recap, here were the main divergences: 

• St. John's represented the biggest point of contention (the AP preseason poll had the Red Storm at No. 5 and KenPom placed the Johnnies at No. 16).
• Creighton, Arkansas, Auburn, BYU, North Carolina and Alabama were among other teams ranked higher by the AP poll.
• Gonzaga, Illinois and Tennessee got more love from KenPom than the AP.

St. John's has started the season 4-3, losing all three games against ranked opponents, and has tumbled all the way down to No. 23 in the latest AP poll. It appears, so far, that KenPom had a better read on the Red Storm coming into the season. Despite the tough start, KenPom hasn't changed its opinion much. St. John's started at No. 16 and currently sits at No. 18. 

St. John's and head coach Rick Pitino haven't gotten off to the start they wanted. 

(Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

That's going to be a theme. The AP poll is very volatile and voters quickly move teams up and down the rankings based on every game. KenPom, meanwhile, tends to take a holistic view and doesn't move teams as much based on a few results. 

For example, North Carolina moved up to No. 16 (from No. 25 preseason) in the AP poll with a 6-1 start. KenPom had UNC at 33 in the preseason and currently places the Tar Heels at 31. Arkansas started the season at No. 15 in the AP poll, but dropped to No. 25 in the latest release. KenPom had Arkansas at 29 preseason and now has the Razorbacks at 31. 

Teams That Are Rising After One Month 

While KenPom doesn't generally make huge changes week-to-week, some teams have moved their way up the rankings. The biggest mover is LSU, which KenPom ranked 56th in the preseason but jumped the Tigers all the way up to 23rd following a 7-0 start. 

The AP voters, though, aren't as impressed by LSU's start. The Tigers are No. 37 in the AP poll. 

Other teams that moved up at least 20 spots in KenPom's rankings: Butler (72 to 45), Virginia (59 to 38) and Saint Mary’s (55 to 35). 

For the AP poll, the biggest gain came from Michigan State, which beat North Carolina on Nov. 27. The Spartans started at No. 22 and have jumped inside the Top 10 at No. 7. KenPom also adjusted on MSU, but not as much (preseason 25th to 15th currently). 

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo during his team's win over North Carolina. 

(Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Arizona is No. 2 in the latest AP poll, a nine-spot jump from their No. 13 preseason rankings. Other movers include Gonzaga (No. 21 to No. 11) and Vanderbilt (unranked to No. 17). Remember that KenPom was much higher on both Gonzaga (8th preseason) and Vanderbilt (19th) than the AP poll in the preseason. 

Teams That Are Falling After One Month 

If some teams are rising, that means some must be falling. In the KenPom rankings, the dubious distinctions go to UCLA (10th to 32nd), Texas Tech (12th to 28th), Florida (2nd to 16th) and Illinois (6th to 17th). 

For the AP poll, the biggest drops from preseason to December 1 include St. John's, UCLA (No. 12 to unranked), Florida (No. 3 to No. 15), Arkansas, Kentucky (No. 9 to No. 18), and Texas Tech (No. 10 to No. 19). 

So, which schools represent the largest points of contention after one month? The AP remains higher on North Carolina (AP 16 vs KP 31), Arkansas (AP 25 vs KP 36), Texas Tech (AP 19 vs KP 28), Michigan State (AP 7 vs KP 15) and Arizona (AP 2 vs KP 8). 

Meanwhile, KenPom is higher on Vanderbilt (KP 10 vs AP 17), Kentucky (KP 11 vs AP 18), Iowa State (KP 4 vs AP 10), Gonzaga (KP 5 vs AP 11), and Michigan (KP 1 vs AP 3). 

It appears that through one month, KenPom has the edge over the AP poll. We'll take another look in 2026 to see if the analytics continue to outperform the human poll. 

Roundball Roundup… 

Now that the nerdy stuff is out of the way, let's take a look at some of the highlights, lowlights, and weird stuff over the past week (or so) in college basketball. 

Maybe he just likes the shoes… 

A highlight AND a lowlight all in one beautiful clip… 

This might be the greatest college basketball radio call in history… 

Dan Hurley continues to be… Dan Hurley. Happy Thanksgiving! 

Never too early for buzzer-beaters… 

Well, that's it for me this week. Want to see something included in the next edition of "CBB With Danny Z"? Shoot me an email: dan.zaksheske@outkick.com; or, send me a tweet @RealDanZak.