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Because I’m a golf betting sicko, I’m going back to the window Saturday with some U.S. Open 2023 3rd round head-to-head (H2H) bets. We’ll call them “Pizza Bets” since I’m not dropping big money on them, just small wagers.
I chopped my two Round 2 looks Friday and my whole Starting 5 for the U.S. Open made the cut. But, none of them have a real chance at winning and one of my full-tournament H2Hs lost when Justin Rose failed to make the cut.
Again, I’m only endorsing “Pizza Bets” on U.S. Open 3rd-round action. For example, let’s say 1 unit (u) for you is $100. Then 0.25u is a “Pizza Bet” in this inflated pizza market. First, check out the …
U.S. Open 2023 Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Billy Horschel (+135) > Sahith Theegala in Round 3
- Tee time: 3:45 p.m. ET.
Horschel rallied back from a +3 in the 1st round to card a -3 to make the +2 cut-line. After a 1st round 74 (+4), Theegala shot -4 Saturday to pair up with Horschel for the 3rd round.
Theegala ranks 47th in total Strokes Gained (SG) this season and Horschel is 142nd. Also, Theegala is from Southern California so he has a “home-field advantage”. This explains why Theegala is a heavy favorite over Horschel Saturday.
However, per FantasyNational.com, Horschel’s true odds is roughly +108 vs. Theegala in a head-to-head and, in events with no cut or when both make the cut, Horschel’s true odds are -225. Horschel is 9-4 vs. Theegala in those spots.
Furthermore, Horschel is 17th in SG: Ball striking (BS) at the U.S. Open thus far and Theegala is 55th in SG: BS. Theegala is putting better than Horschel, per DataGolf.com. But, Ball striking is a lot more predictive than putting.
If Horschel gets on the right side of putting variance, he’ll be alright. Granted, Theegala is 23rd in SG: Putting on the PGA Tour this season but Horschel is 57th. So Horschel’s putting is not egregiously bad.
Finally, Theegala is winless in his 1+ year on the PGA Tour. While Horschel’s 5th career win was the 2022 Memorial Tournament, which is one of the most prestigious events of the season.
BET 0.25u on Billy Horschel (+135) over Sahith Theegala in 3rd Round at DraftKings
Cameron Smith (+145) > Scottie Scheffler in Round 3
- Tee time: 5:56 p.m. ET.
Believe it or not, Scheffler is overpriced Saturday vs. Smith, Per FantasyNational.com, Scheffler’s true odds should be -120 vs. Smith and not what DraftKings is dealing (-170). Scheffler is 18-15 vs. Smith at events where they both make the cut.
Scheffler won THE PLAYERS Championship 2023 and the 2022 Masters. However, Smith won THE PLAYERS last season and was the 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year for winning the 2022 Open Championship.
Smith’s ball striking can be suspect sometimes while Scheffler is the best ball striker on the planet. But, Smith putts better than any golfer does anything. The Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course is going to get firm and fast Saturday.
This puts a premium on hitting fairways and gaining strokes off-the-tee (OTT). Per DataGolf.com, Scheffler ranks 18th in SG: OTT and Smith is 20th. If Smith is in the top-20 in SG: OTT or tee-to-green he’s a threat to win.
Lastly, Scheffler’s game fits usual U.S. Open courses better than Smith’s. Yet the LACC’s North Course isn’t your “usual U.S. Open course”. It has bigger greens and wider fairways. That helps Smith.
With that in mind, I’m going to sprinkle 0.3u on Cameron Smith to finish top-10 (-120). On top of a …
0.25u on Cameron Smith (+145) over Scottie Scheffler in 3rd round at DraftKings
Pre-2023 U.S. Open Betting Coverage
2023 U.S. OPEN BETTING ODDS, COURSE PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, JON RAHM LEAD THE WAY
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