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Tis the holiday season and a great gift is Saturday NFL football. With the end of the college season we now get games on both days of the weekend thru the rest of the season. A good three game “Thanksgiiving like” slate is on tap today with a great finish.
The Thursday pick worked out well with the under 43.5 (dipped to 42.5 by kickoff) as San Francisco won in a low scoring 21-13 road win as expected. That takes our season record to 42-25-4 against the spread with four more Week 15 picks to go. Below are our leans and analysis based on the Sports Injury Central or (SIC) algorithm and there is one pick in the final game of the day.
IND @ MIN -3.5
The Vikings can clinch the NFC West today and they should do just that. Prior to the season SIC picks took the Minnesota over 9.5 wins and +240 to win the division based on the Green Bay offensive line injuries coming into this season, The Colts temporary bump from a new player friendly head coach has waned. Both offenses are healthy but the Vikings are just better. Both defenses have injury issue so perhaps consider the over even though the Colts have scored less than 20 points in each of the last three games.
BAL+2.5 @ CLE under 38.5
Indeed Lamar Jackson will not play for a second straight game as we reported first at OutKick three weeks ago. Tyler Huntley has cleared concussion protocol and his ankle injury should allow him to be mobile. The team health SIC scores are relatively even but focus on the cluster injuries in the Browns linebackers. Both teams should be able to rely on the run so consider the under. Deshaun Watson has yet to return to form and this is only his third game in two years. The Ravens have been the more injured side most of the season but now are on the rebound.
MIA @ BUF -7
The Bills health is on the rise and the Dolphins are on the decline. Add in the weather and this is an algorithm pick for us. Miami has issues at the bookend tackles and Jeff Wilson, Jr. is likely out. Defensively they have significant secondary issues. It seems the Dolphins will have trouble stopping Buffalo and keep up as well. The passing game will be tough in the cold and snow for the warm weather QB from Miami via Alabama after growing up in Hawaii has not done well or had much experience in frigid weather. Buffalo should dominate.
Sunday will have a full slate of games and that analysis will come tomorrow morning.