PGA TOUR Best Bets, 'One-And-Pick': 2025 John Deere Classic

It's tough getting up for the 2025 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. The John Deere has one of the worst fields of the season. Most of the PGA TOUR's best went overseas to prepare for the upcoming Genesis Scottish Open and The 153rd Open Championship. 

As if golf betting couldn't get any lamer for me lately, one of my picks to win last week's Rocket Classic, Michael Thorbjornsen, finished T4, one stroke out of the three-man playoff. After losing 2.15 units (u) at the Rocket Classic, my 2025 PGA TOUR bankroll is -12.47u entering the John Deere. 

Yet, there are no other sports to gamble on besides baseball, and I'm in the mix to win $100,000 in my One-And-Done league, the "Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup." That said, here are my Horses for the Course for TPC Deere Run this week. 

2025 John Deere Classic Betting Card

‘Starting 5’

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they may have changed since then. 

• Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000) via FanDuel, risking 0.67u.
• Kevin Yu (+3500) via DraftKings, risking 0.57u.
• Lucas Glover (+4000) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
• Kevin Roy (+6500) via FanDuel, risking 0.31u.
• Cameron Champ (+8000) via FanDuel, risking 0.25u.

Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000) 

If it weren't for two missed putts inside five feet, Thorbjornsen would've cashed a 90-to-1 ticket for me at last week's Rocket Classic. Unfortunately, his T4 is my third "close call" in the past four events. The other two were Sam Burns losing in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open and Viktor Hovland placing third at the U.S. Open. 

Nonetheless, I'm going back to the well with Thorbjornsen despite him being 60 points lower on the oddsboard because he is the most talented player in this field. The 23-year-old earned his TOUR card by being the valedictorian of the PGA TOUR University class of 2024. Thorbjornsen has a beautiful swing with blazing club head speed. 

Michael Thorbjornsen hitting his tee shot during the final round of the 2024 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo credit: Joseph Cress-Imagn Images)

He finished T17 as an amateur in the 2023 John Deere and T2 last year, shooting -24, while gaining strokes driving, on approach, around the greens, and putting. Thorbjornsen did the same at the Rocket Classic last week. Finally, the John Deere is a "birdie-fest," and he is leading the field in Birdie-or-Better (BoB) rate over the last 20 rounds, according to Bet The Number. 

Kevin Yu (+3500) 

Yu is ball-striking well this season. According to Bet The Number, he is fourth in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) over the last 40 rounds and 17th in Approach shots from 125-150 yards, where most of the approach shots at TPC Deere Run are from. 

Despite being a terrible putter, Yu is 10th in BoB rate over the last 40 rounds, and has gained 10.4 strokes putting in his two John Deere Classics in 2023-24. So, if he can marry this year’s ball-striking with his strong putting on TPC Deere Run’s greens, he’ll be in the mix this weekend. 

Also, Yu won the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship in the FedExCup Fall season, and has several nice finishes this year, such as T16 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T17 at The Genesis Invitational, T12 at the Valspar Championship, and fourth at the RBC Canadian Open. 

Ultimately, he is only 26 years old, already has a PGA TOUR win with longer odds than guys with zero wins, and is a bomber, and the type of guy I want to bet in this event. 

Lucas Glover (+4000) 

Glover is a legit player with exemptions for all the majors, and he’s priced below Jabronis who hasn’t won sh*t. Granted, he’s the captain of "Team No Putt," but Glover has gained strokes on the greens in four straight John Deere Classics, including his win in 2021. 

He's not long OTT, but he's one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR, which plays well at TPC Deere Run, and Glover won the 2021 John Deere Classic. Glover is second on TOUR this year in approach shots from 125-150 yards and fifth in SG: Approach in this field over the last 40 rounds, per Bet The Number. 

Lucas Glover holds up the trophy after winning the 2021 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. (Photo credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, he finished T3 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ("signature event"), T3 at THE PLAYERS Championship (golf's fifth major), T8 at the Valspar, and T9 at the Travelers Championship in his last start. Those events are played at courses that reward precision more than power, like TPC Deere Run. 

Lastly, Glover was +5000 at the 2024 John Deere in a much stronger field. Here’s who played last year and isn’t this year: Aaron Rai, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Daniel Berger, J.J. Spaun, Jhonattan Vegas (who won the 3M Open 2024 a few weeks later), and Nick Dunlap. 

Kevin Roy (+6500) 

Maybe it's because Roy had his first child last week and has "dad strength," but he's been low-key good lately. Roy led the Rocket Classic last week after the first round and finished T8. It was his sixth top-20 this season, and the first five were birdie-fests. 

Roy is seventh on my 20-round model at Bet The Number and leads the field in total SG at easy courses over the last 24 rounds, per Fantasy National. He is fifth in Par 4 scoring on TOUR this year and fourth in Bogey Avoidance. 

Cameron Champ (+8000) 

He's been splitting his time between the Korn Ferry and PGA TOURs this season, but has looked good in his seven starts in the big leagues. Champ has four top-20s this year: T16 at the Puerto Rico Open, T15 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, T9 at the RBC Canadian Open, and T19 at last week's Rocket Classic. 

Meanwhile, Champ is the top-ranked golfer in my 20-round model at Bet The Number. He is fourth in this field for SG: OTT, sixth in SG: Putting, and third in BoB rate. Cam would lead the TOUR in driving distance and club head speed if he played enough rounds to qualify, and that type of power could help him win any tournament in the world. 

Speaking of which, Champ just turned 30 years old and has three wins on TOUR: 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship, 2019 Safeway Open, and 2021 3M Open. The Sanderson and 3M Open are both birdie-fests, and the 3M is in the Midwest portion of the calendar, like the John Deere. The Safeway had a loaded field featuring Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Phil Mickelson. 

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John Deere Classic 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Cameron Champ

I'm 12th out of 4,500 entries in the Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup, which pays $10,000, and the winner collects $100,000. Admittedly, this is a random dart, but my partner and I (my girlfriend) can gain ground on the leaders of the Mayo Cup because I doubt any of the 11 people ahead of us will use him. 

However, the John Deere is prone to longshots winning, and several longshots have won these non-major or "signature events" this season. Plus, even if Champ misses the cut, we can still win this contest. There are two FedExCup Playoff events and The Open Championship remaining, and we have a lot of studs we haven't used yet. 

More importantly, my partner has "good vibes" about Champ, and she bet Aldrich Potgieter when he won the Rocket Classic last week, so it's her pick this week. But, I'm not trying to "sandbag" my old lady. I already planned to bet Champ because of how well he did on my model and his legitimate "win equity" before discussing our options for the John Deere. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.