Looking To Repeat At The 2025 RBC Canadian Open: Best Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick
Glorious and free is how I’m going into this week’s 2025 RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto’s North Course at Osprey Valley in Ontario. I hit Scottie Scheffler at last week’s Memorial Tournament and Robert MacIntyre at the 2024 RBC Canadian Open. This is the first PGA TOUR event at TPC Toronto, which is meant to prepare golfers for next week’s U.S. Open.
Listen: 2025 RBC CANADIAN OPEN PREVIEW FT. GEOFF FIENBERG & MARK HARRIS
Hence, Rory McIlroy, the perfect U.S. Open-type of golfer, has won the Canadian Open twice and is the betting favorite this year. The North Course will play to 7,389 yards and the Oakmont Country Club, host of the 2025 U.S. Open, stretches to 7,372 yards. Albeit TPC Toronto is far easier than Oakmont, so the winner will have to get hot with the putter.
I only added +7.0 units (u) to my bankroll last week because Scottie had +300 and all my other bets bricked. As a result, my 2025 PGA TOUR balance is -2.28u after the Memorial. Here are my outright winners and ‘One-And-Done’ pick for our neighbor to the north's national tournament.
2025 RBC Canadian Open Betting Card
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- Taylor Pendrith (+2800) via FanDuel, risking 0.71u.
- Sam Burns (+3000) via DraftKings, risking 0.67u.
- Cameron Young (+6600) via BetMGM, risking 0.3u.
- Justin Rose (+7500) via FanDuel, risking 0.27u.
- Erik van Rooyen (+10000) via FanDuel, risking 0.2u.
Taylor Pendrith (+2800)
Canadian, and fellow golf handicapper, Geoff Fienberg came on my OutKick Bet Podcast earlier this week and said that Pendrith has played more rounds at TPC Toronto than any PGA TOUR golfer. That, combined with recent form and course fit, is why Pendrith leads my 2025 RBC Canadian Open betting card.
There are 14 driver holes at the North Course and Pendrith is second in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) this season in this field, behind Rory. Pendrith was T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 at the Memorial last week. He led the field last week in SG: Approach (APP) and driving distance, according to DataGolf.com.
Pendrith gained strokes in the four most important stats — OTT, APP, around-the-green, and putting — at the PGA Championship. Although his putting has been down this year, Pendrith is above-average with his putter for his career, and TPC Toronto allegedly has flat, easy greens. Perhaps his familiarity with the North Course helps Pendrith this week.
He spiked in putting at the Houston Open and THE PLAYERS Championship, where he gained 5.0 and 6.2 strokes putting, respectively. Memorial Park, the Houston Open's course, is similar to TPC Toronto, and THE PLAYERS is at TPC Sawgrass. Pendrith's only TOUR win was THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2024 at another easy TPC course, favoring bombers and spike putters.
Sam Burns (+3000)
Burns is on the putting heater of all putting heaters. According to Fantasy National, Burns has gained 5.4 strokes putting per event in his last five starts. He finished T13 at the 2025 RBC Heritage, T5 at the Byron Nelson, T30 at the Truist, T19 at the PGA, and T12 at the Memorial. Those are three "signature events," a major, and an event at a crossover course to TPC Toronto.
Sam Burns lining up a putt during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)
The LSU alum leads the TOUR in putting, averaging +1.050 strokes gained per round. Also, he gained strokes with his irons at the Memorial last week for the first time since the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. With his power OTT and lights-out putting, Burns can win one of these non-Major/Signature Events with just above-average iron play.
He hasn’t won since the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, but Burns is only 28 years old and has five wins on TOUR already. He was T10 at last year’s Canadian Open and T4 in 2022. His four other wins are in fields similar to the Canadian Open, such as the Valspar Championship (twice), the Sanderson Farms Championship, and the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Cameron Young (+6600)
The vibes are good for Young, who beat four guys in a playoff during "Golf's Longest Day" to qualify for the 2025 U.S. Open. More importantly, Young cranks the ball OTT and has been rolling the rock well this season. He is 22nd in driving distance this season and 25th in SG: Putting.
Also, TPC Toronto's openness is similar to a DP World Tour course, and Young can overpower those European courses. He was the runner-up in The 150th Open Championship in Scotland in 2022 and T8 two years ago. Since TPC Toronto doesn't have many hazards, Young can go "bombs away" here.
People have given up on the 2022 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year because he still doesn't have a win. However, Young is only 28 years old and one of the most powerful ball-strikers in golf. These odds are just too good to pass up considering Young's talent compared to the rest of this field.
Justin Rose (+7500)
J-Rose has either been in contention or has sucked this season. There is no in-between. Rose has four missed cuts and withdrew once this year, but finished T3 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (signature event), T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (signature event), and lost to Rory in a playoff at the Masters. After a few poor showings, this could be the week Rose contends again.
Golf Canada is setting up its national open to be a warm-up for next week's U.S. Open, and Rose won the 2013 U.S. Open. He was eighth and T4 in his last two RBC Canadian Opens in 2022-23. Granted, those were on different courses, but they have the same Bentgrass for the greens, and J-Rose gained 8.7 and 4.2 strokes putting in those two Canadian Opens.
Regardless, Rose has much more "win equity" than most of the jabronis with better odds in this field, and his price fits my 2025 RBC Canadian Open budget. He has 10 wins on the PGA TOUR, eight on the DP World (European) Tour, and won the gold medal in the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Erik van Rooyen (+10000)
EVR checks a few boxes for me at TPC Toronto, and we are getting a great price. He putts well on Bentgrass greens, ranks second in this field for APP shots from 200+ yards, and 10th in APP shots from 175-200 yards, per Fantasy National. EVR finished second at the Byron Nelson and is fourth on my model for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open at Bet The Number.
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RBC Canadian Open 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Taylor Pendrith
Scottie winning the Memorial last week propelled me to fourth place out of 4,500 entries in the 2025 Race for the Mayo Cup, which pays out $40,000. There are still two majors and three signature events remaining, so I'm not counting my money now. Pendrith will be popular in the Mayo Cup this week. But, since I'm in fourth, I don't need to use contrarian game theory, I just have to pick winners.
Previous Picks
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000), 🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
- Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
- Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
- The Masters: Rory McIlroy ($4,200,000), 🥇
- RBC Heritage: Justin Thomas ($3,600,000), 🥇
- THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Jake Knapp ($40,095), T39
- Truist Championship: Ludvig Åberg ($42,500): T60
- 2025 PGA Championship: Bryson DeChambeau ($1,418,667), T2
- Charles Schwab Challenge: Harris English ($22,262), T53
- the Memorial Tournament: Scottie Scheffler ($4,000,000) 🥇
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.