Can Anyone Stop Scottie Scheffler From Winning Another Memorial Tournament?

Everything about the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club is cool. Muirfield, aka Jack's Place, is one of the toughest tee-to-green tests on the PGA TOUR, typically producing thrilling finishes. I love how pumped the winner gets about shaking Jack Nicklaus' hand, the Memorial's host. Muirfield is known for legendary milkshakes, which golfers enjoy at the end of their rounds. 

The reigning Memorial champion, Scottie Scheffler, looks to go back-to-back against a field without World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, who is skipping the Memorial to prepare for the upcoming RBC Canadian Open, U.S. Open, and Travelers Championship. It's a chicken-sh*t move considering Nicklaus is a legend and gave Rory advice for the Masters before he won the green jacket in April. 

I guess that's neither here nor there, but it just pisses me off because the Memorial is the penultimate "signature event" on the PGA TOUR. McIlroy helped create signature events with increased prize pools and smaller fields to keep the big names on TOUR happy, and he's big-timing Jack. Whatever. That's more milkshakes for the golfers who aren't too cool for Muirfield. 

Related: RORY MCILROY'S RUN OF ODD DECISIONS CONTINUES AFTER HE DOESN'T CALL JACK NICKLAUS ABOUT SKIPPING MEMORIAL

But, what pisses me off more is my recent losing streak. After a mini-heater which included hitting Rory at the Masters and Justin Thomas at the 2025 RBC Heritage, I've cooled off. I lost -4 units (u) at last week's Charles Schwab Challenge, and my 2025 PGA TOUR bankroll is -9.28u. Keep reading for how I plan to win my money back and my One-And-Done pick for the Memorial. 

2025 Memorial Tournament Betting Card 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

• Scottie Scheffler (+300) via BetMGM, risking 3.0u.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick "Winner without Scottie Scheffler" (+3500) via DraftKings, risking 0.25u.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick Top-10 (+320) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
• Denny McCarthy "Winner without Scottie Scheffler" (+4000) via BetMGM, risking 0.25u.
• Denny McCarthy Top-10 (+375) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
• Si Woo Kim Top-10 (+280) via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.

Scottie Scheffler (+300) 

Considering Scheffler’s odds of winning the 2025 PGA Championship were +450, his +300 odds for the Memorial aren’t bad. There are only 71 golfers in this field and no Rory. The PGA was the toughest field of the year. It was a 156-golfer field with the PGA TOUR's best and several LIV Tour players, namely Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm. 

Scottie’s true odds for the Memorial should be +225 because he’s dominated with his irons at Muirfield the past two years and this field is much softer than the PGA Championship. He’s World No. 1, so every course is a "Scottie Course," but Muirfield is a "Scottie Course". Scheffler has played in four Memorials: T22 in 2020, third in 2021, third in 2023, and a win last year. 

Scottie Scheffler shakes hands with Jack Nicklaus after winning the 2024 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Photo Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)

He gained 13.0 and 11.8 strokes on approach in the last two Memorials. That’s insane. Losing 8.5 strokes putting in 2023 is why Scheffler finished third, one stroke behind Viktor Hovland and McCarthy, who went into a playoff that Hovland won. All of a sudden, Scottie became a good putter last season. 

Since then, he has won nine times on the PGA TOUR, including the 2024 Masters and 2025 PGA Championship, and won a gold medal at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. Lastly, a survivor league strategy guides this week's Scheffler bet, which I’ll discuss in the "One-And-Done" section below. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick "Winner Without Scottie Scheffler" (+3500) & Top-10 (+320) 

A bet on Fitzpatrick is a bet on talent with a good course history at a low price that’s rounding into form. The 2022 U.S. Open champion is 103rd in total strokes gained on TOUR this season. He called his game "rubbish" in the 2025 PGA Championship media days before the tournament. But, Fitzpatrick finished T8 at the PGA and was T2 heading into the weekend. 

Perhaps Fitzpatrick’s strong showing at the PGA Championship propels him toward contending in this upcoming stretch of big-boy tournaments. He’s gained strokes around the green (ARG) in six straight starts (excluding the Zurich Classic team event), including three "signature events" and two majors. 

Fitzpatrick is second in my 12-round model for the 2025 Memorial at Bet The Number. Over that span, he is fourth in this field for Approach shots from 200+ yards, sixth in Par 5 scoring, and sixth in Bogey Avoidance. Those are my three most important stats for Muirfield. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick hitting out of a bunker in the 2024 Memorial at Muirfield. (Photo credit: Adam Cairns-Imagn Images)

Scheffler’s Bogey Avoidance rate was higher than his Birdie Conversion rate in his win at last year’s Memorial. On a course this hard, you need to score on the Par-5s. Three of the four Par-3s are 200+ yards and, to score on those Par-5s, you have to be accurate with your long irons. 

Fitzpatrick has three top-10s in six career Memorials with a T5 last year and T9 in 2023. He’s gained strokes putting in four of them, ARG five times, and off the tee (OTT) in all six. Since par is a good score in the Memorial, you need a good short-game to "get up and down". Lastly, Muirfield is one of the toughest places on TOUR to pick up strokes ARG and OTT. 

Denny McCarthy "Winner Without Scottie Scheffler" (+4000) & Top-10 (+375) 

It doesn't make sense because he is 140th on the PGA TOUR this season in driving distance, but McCarthy plays well on long courses like Muirfield. Again, he lost in a playoff at the Memorial to Hovland two years ago and finished T5 in 2022. McCarthy was T5 at The Genesis Invitational and T8 at the PGA Championship this season, both at "bombers' paradises."

Denny McCarthy misses a putt on Hole No. 18 to win the 2023 Memorial at  Muirfield. (Photo credit: Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK)

McCarthy is one of the best putters in the world, which means he can win anywhere, especially on difficult courses where saving par is as good as a birdie. Per Fantasy National, D-Mac has gained strokes on the greens in all five Memorial starts, including nearly 23 strokes in the last three. McCarthy will be in the mix on Sunday if he can put together a strong week of ball striking. 

Si Woo Kim Top-10 (+280) 

Kim had a four-event streak of top-20 finishes snapped with a T28 at last week's Charles Schwab. But, that was Si Woo's best finish in eight career Charles Schwabs. Otherwise, Kim was T8 at the 2025 RBC Heritage ("signature event"), T15 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, T17 at the Truist Championship ("signature event"), and T8 at the PGA Championship recently. 

Also, Si Woo is second in my 30-round model at Bet The Number. He leads the PGA TOUR in Par 5 scoring, which is vital at Muirfield. Kim has five consecutive top-20s at the Memorial: T18 in 2020, T9 in 2021, T13 in 2022, fourth in 2023, and T15 last year. Yet, his top-20 odds are +110, so I'm gambling for a bigger payout. 

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the Memorial Tournament 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Scottie Scheffler

If the Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup ended today, I'd cash out $3,500. I've collected $14.8 million of prize money this season, and the leader has $20.2 million banked. However, I still haven't used Scottie in One-And-Done, whereas 25 of the 27 people ahead of me in the standings have, including the leader. 

So, this is where I play my Scheffler card. He got $3,420,000 for his 2025 PGA Championship victory, but the winner of the Memorial takes home $4 million. Plus, this field is easier, and I can gain ground in the Mayo Cup if the World No. 1 wins a tournament he's dominated. That makes this pick a "no-brainer."

Previous Picks

• Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
• The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
• Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
• The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
• Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
• Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000), 🥇
• THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
• Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
• Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
• The Masters: Rory McIlroy ($4,200,000), 🥇
• RBC Heritage: Justin Thomas ($3,600,000), 🥇
• THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Jake Knapp ($40,095), T39
• Truist Championship: Ludvig Åberg ($42,500): T60
• 2025 PGA Championship: Bryson DeChambeau ($1,418,667), T2
• Charles Schwab Challenge: Harris English ($22,262), T53

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.