Target 'Bombers' When Betting The 2025 Rocket Classic

I'm on tilt entering this week's 2025 Rocket Classic at Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. First, fellow St. John's graduate from the Class of 2008, Keegan Bradley, whom I didn't bet on, won the Travelers Championship last week. Then, I fell from eighth to 11th place in the Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup when my least favorite golfer and pick to win the Travelers, Patrick Cantlay, finished T12. 

Bradley won his second Travelers in the past three years, and there is no world where I should have picked Cantlay over him. I got too caught up in "zagging" on the contest, rather than selecting the golfer most likely to win. As a result of overthinking, I lost -2.72 units (u) at the Travelers, and my 2025 PGA TOUR balance fell to -10.32u. 

My gambling strategy for the Detroit Golf Club is to bet to profit 25u on my One-And-Done pick for the Rocket Classic, Cameron Young, compared to 20u for my other four outrights. This is the least money I've bet on a tournament this year since the winner will likely be one of the favorites, but I don't like the value for those guys. Without further ado, here are my picks for this week. 

2025 Rocket Classic Betting Card

'Horses for the Course'

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers below, and they might have moved since. 

• Cameron Young (+2800) via DraftKings, risking 0.89u.
• Alex Smalley (+5500) via FanDuel, risking 0.36u.
• Nicolai Højgaard (+8000) via Bet365, risking 0.25u.
• Michael Thorbjornsen (+9000) via BetMGM, risking 0.22u.
• Lee Hodges (+11000) via FanDuel, risking 0.18u.

Cameron Young (+2800) 

I'm drawing a line through Young's T52 at the Travelers last week, since the Detroit GC is far different from TPC River Highlands, host of the Travelers. TPC River Highlands gets a 2.4 out of 10.0 in Bet The Number's "Bomber's Paradise" with only eight driver holes. Conversely, Detroit GC has 13 driver holes with a 6.6 "Bomber's Paradise" score. 

Well, Young is one of the biggest hitters in golf, and the driver is his best club in the bag. He was T4 in both the U.S. and RBC Canadian Opens before the Travelers, and you need to use the driver at those events. He finished T2 and T6 in his two Rocket Classics in 2022 and last year. Since there is little penalty for missing the fairway, Young can go "bombs away" in Detroit. 

Cameron Young tees at ninth hold during Round 3 of the 2024 Rocket Classic at Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. (Photo credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Also, you need to putt well to win these "birdie fests," and Young has gained strokes on the greens in seven straight starts. This includes the Truist Championship, the Memorial Tournament, and the U.S. Open, with some of the toughest greens on TOUR. He broke even putting at last year's Rocket Classic but gained 3.4 strokes on the greens in 2022. 

Young was T3 entering the final round of the 2024 Rocket Classic, one stroke behind the leaders, before firing a 73 (+1) on Sunday. However, he is playing better coming into the Rocket Classic this year, and Detroit GC fits Young too well to pass up on odds of +2000 or higher. 

Alex Smalley (+5500) 

Low-key, Smalley is having a good season on TOUR. He is fourth in total strokes gained (SG) this year and 17th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT). Smalley has seven top-20s, including a T10 at the Mexico Open, another birdie-fest favoring good drivers, a T14 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and a T13 at the RBC Canadian Open in his last start.

Based on his stats, Smalley shouldn't have worse betting odds than Keith Mitchell (+3500), Luke Clanton (+4000), Rasmus Højgaard (+4500), whose twin brother, Nicolai, I'm betting on, and Davis Thompson (+4500). Granted, he's never won on TOUR before, but Smalley winning the Rocket Classic isn't as crazy as J.J. Spaun winning the U.S. Open. 

Nicolai Højgaard (+8000)

Speaking of the Højgaards, Nicolai is the better of the twins. He is +0.47 in total SG this season, but doesn't have enough rounds to qualify for the official PGA TOUR leaderboard, whereas Rasmus is 117th in total SG at -0.16. Nicolai is 16th in this field for driving distance, 12th in SG: Approach, 15th in Par 5 scoring, and eighth in Birdie-or-Better (BoB) rate, per Bet The Number. 

He won the 2023 DP World Tour Championship in a field that included his brother, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, and Tommy Fleetwood, to earn his PGA TOUR card last year. The Dane flashed some potential but didn't live up to the hype. Nevertheless, Nicolai has legit "win equity," and he nukes the ball OTT, which works well at Detroit GC. 

Michael Thorbjornsen (+9000)

I'm just betting on talent at a good price. This is Thorbjornsen's first season as a full-time PGA TOUR pro after finishing first in the 2024 PGA TOUR University rankings, the same way Ludvig Åberg qualified for the TOUR. But, Thorbjornsen is struggling, missing the cut in six of his 15 events this year, and withdrawing from his previously scheduled start, the Charles Schwab Challenge. 

His only top-30 finish in a non-team tournament was a T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, an alternate event for golfers who didn't qualify for the RBC Heritage, a "signature event." Thorbjornsen showed some life in the 2025 PGA Championship. He was T7 entering the weekend before shooting +6 in the final two rounds to finish T41. 

Thorbjornsen missed the cut at last year's Rocket Classic on the number (-3) when he got stuck in the bunker on the 13th hole and triple-bogeyed in the second round. That sand trap was 250-ish yards from the tee box, and Thorbjornsen could've easily driven it past that bunker. His course management should improve with experience this week. 

Finally, Thorbjornsen's game is perfect for Detroit GC because he is fourth in this field in driving distance on TOUR this season, 11th in SG: OTT, and 13th in BoB rate, and ninth among Par 5 BoB leaders, according to Bet The Number.

Lee Hodges (+11000)

He won the 3M Open in 2023 on a crossover course to the Detroit GC, TPC Twin Cities, also in the Midwest (Minnesota). So, we aren't asking Hodges to do something he hasn't before. Plus, he is fifth in my model at Bet The Number spanning the full season because I prioritized Par 5 scoring and wedge-play. 

Hodges is first on TOUR among Par 5 BoB leaders this year and 16th in this field for approach shots from 50-125 yards, per Bet The Number, where most approach shots at Detroit GC come from. Lastly, his best finishes this season were on driver-heavy courses: T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T11 at the Texas Children's Houston Open, and T9 at his last start, the RBC Canadian Open. 

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Rocket Classic 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Cameron Young

I've made peace with the fact that Young will be among the top-five most-bet golfers this week, which doesn't feel great. Yet, like I wrote above, I'm only picking winners, and I legitimately think he breaks through for his first PGA TOUR victory at the Rocket Classic. 

While I agree that Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Ben Griffin have more win equity, I have already used Collin and Cantlay, and I'm possibly saving Hideki and Griffin for the two FedExCup Playoff events at the end of the season. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.