My First NFL Week 3 Bet Is Ugly: Vikings Over Bengals In A Battle Of Backup QBs

I was in the middle of writing a pro-Minnesota Vikings (1-1) handicap for their Week 3 home game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) when news broke that Minnesota's first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy would miss this game with an injury. The Vikings opened as -4.5 favorites at DraftKings after their 22-6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. 

Related: IT'S WENTZ VERSUS BROWNING AS VIKINGS AND BENGALS WITHOUT STARTERS J.J. MCCARTHY AND JOE BURROW

DraftKings released that spread, knowing Cincy second-string QB Jake Browning will replace Joe Burrow, who will be out for the next few months with turf toe. Yet, Minnesota's spread has fallen to -3 across the board since announcing backup QB Carson Wentz would fill in for McCarthy. This is too big a line move based on various reasons I'll discuss below. 

Prediction: Vikings 23, Bengals 17 

First of all, Cincy’s 31-27 win as -3.5 favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday was a bogus cover. Jacksonville could’ve, should’ve kicked a field goal on 4th-and-5 on Cincinnati’s seven-yard line to take a six-point lead with 3:47 remaining. Instead, the Jaguars failed to convert on fourth down, and the Bengals scored a game-winning 93-yard touchdown drive for the win and cover. 

Minnesota's Bounce-Back Spot After Primetime Embarrassment

Also, betting on teams the week after an ugly primetime loss is an old-school NFL handicapping angle because players and coaches usually respond with urgency. That angle is stronger here, given Cincy's bad defense, inability to run the ball, or protect its passer. 

Furthermore, Minnesota’s defense, which ranked among the best against the run last year, should have no trouble forcing Browning into obvious passing downs. That opens the door for the Vikings’ pass rush to take over.

Adjusting the Line for Quarterback Injuries

Are we sure Wentz is a downgrade from McCarthy? McCarthy has played one good quarter and seven bad ones. While Wentz is 47-46-1 in his career as a starter and finished third in MVP voting as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2017, the year they won the Super Bowl. 

He’s become the butt of jokes in the NFL media, and this is the sixth different team Wentz has started for in the last six seasons. However, Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is a "quarterback whisperer". Kirk Cousins had the best years of his career playing for him, and O'Connell saved QB Sam Darnold's career last season. 

Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell looks to coach up another quarterback vs. the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 3. (Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images)

After Cousins got hurt in 2023, the Vikings signed QB Joshua Dobbs off the street and beat the Falcons 31-28 as +3.5 underdogs in Atlanta. Dobbs wasn't in the building long enough to meet all of his teammates, let alone learned O'Connell's playbook, and was missing WR Justin Jefferson, and they still got a dub. 

Finally, my favorite part about this bet is the market will be on the opposite side. Per Pro Football Focus, roughly 80% of the action is on the Bengals at the time of writing. Wentz is the smelly kid in class no one wants to hang out with, whereas Browning is considered one of the better backups in the league.  

Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105) at FanDuel 

Without Burrow, the Bengals are a fade, especially when they can’t run the ball and their defense bleeds yards. Minnesota, despite its Sunday night debacle, has a better playcaller on both sides of the ball, and its quarterback situation MIGHT improve this week with Wentz. 

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