Indianapolis Colts Will Be A Punching Bag In 2023

I'm still compiling my notes and doing homework for the NFL 2023 season. But, one thing that jumped out to me was how much respect the betting market is giving the Indianapolis Colts.

In 2022, the Colts finished 4-12-1. It turned out to be now-former head coach Frank Reich's final year in Indianapolis. Honestly, I think Reich got a raw deal. The Colts started the season with five different starting QBs in Reich's 5-season stint.

Former Colts QB Andrew Luck talks with Reich at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Reich got the Colts into the playoffs twice and in his 1st season on the job with former QB Andrew Luck. Then Luck abruptly retired weeks prior to the 2019 regular season, sending Indy's franchise in flux.

Regardless, the Colts won a playoff game in 2020 with QB Philip Rivers under center. Reich was 40-33-1 before getting fired after Week 9 in 2022. Indy hired a new head coach this offseason and selected QB Anthony Richardson 4th in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Anthony Richardson poses with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being taken 4th by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2023 NFL Draft at Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)

This leads to the question: "How much, if at all, will the Colts improve in their 1st season with a new head coach and rookie QB?"

My answer is "The Colts will suck in 2023".

2023 Indianapolis Colts by the odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Before I begin trashing Indy's 2023 chances let me 1st make a pro-Colts argument. Indianapolis's new coach, Shane Steichen was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles in the last two seasons and the LA Chargers for the two seasons prior.

The Eagles scored the 3rd-most points and gained the 3rd-most yards last season en route to a 2023 Super Bowl appearance. Chargers QB Justin Herbert was a stud in Steichen's offense and Steichen deserves credit for that.

New coach Shane Steichen poses in a picture with Colts CEO Jim Irsay and General Manager Chris Ballard. (Kelly Wilkinson/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Also, the Colts play one of the softest schedules in the NFL this season. Indianapolis has the 3rd-easiest strength of schedules in 2023 "based on Vegas forecasted win totals," according to Warren Sharp.

Aside from those angles, I don't see how the Colts improve this season. They are favorites in just three games this year as of July 9, per DraftKings. Instead of fading Indianapolis in those standard markets above, I'm betting ...

UNDER Colts 4.5-alternate regular season win total (+290)

The bottom line is I don't trust this organization to hire a new coach, draft a project quarterback AND have a better record year over year. It wouldn't be surprising if backup QB Gardner Minshew starts Week 1.

But, Indy was god-awful in 2022 and was 23rd in free agency spending this offseason. The Colts' O-line was 22nd last season in adjusted line yards per snap, according to Football Outsiders. That was their lowest ranking since 2015.

If Colts RB Jonathan Taylor isn't one of the best running backs in the NFL next season, I don't see Indianapolis having success on offense. Also, Steichen hired Jim Bob Cooter to be his OC for 2023.

Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Cooter was an OC for the Detroit Lions from 2015-18. During that span, the Lions ranked 32nd, 30th, 32nd, and 23rd in rushing yards. This doesn't bode well for Taylor and Indy will need more from its QBs.

Anthony Richardson was a below-average passer last year in college football. He completed just 53.8% of his passes in 2022 for 2,549 yards with a 17/9 TD/INT ratio last season. Richardson got mopped up by Georgia last season and never faced Alabama in college.

GARDNER MINSHEW’S DREAM OF STARTING FOR COLTS IS CRUSHED AND HE LOVES ANTHONY RICHARDSON WHO IS CRUSHING IT

JONATHAN TAYLOR COMPARES ANTHONY RICHARDSON TO MULTIPLE STAR QBS

The Colts' front office thinks Richardson can be their Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. But, Allen and Hurts were bad pocket passers early in their NFL careers and their teams were much better than Indy.

Especially when you consider the Colts have a bottom-10 WR corp in the NFL, which is being nice. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Indy WR Michael Pittman Jr. 39th out 113 wide receivers in 2022.

Richardson works through passing drills during mandatory minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. (Mykal McEldowney-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, PFF graded Colts WR Alec Pierce 91st last season and new Indianapolis slot-WR Isaiah McKenzie 61st. Colts TE Moe Allie-Cox was the 70th-ranked tight end in 2022, per PFF.

Regardless of who is under center for the Colts Week 1, they won't have open receivers to throw to. Minshew is a backup QB for a reason. And Richardson won't make Indy's weak offense better as a rookie.

I don't hate betting the Colts UNDER 6.5 regular-season wins in 2023 (+115). However, Indianapolis's floor is a 3- to 4-win team this season and I usually only bet futures that have a 2-to-1 payout or higher.

BET: Indianapolis Colts UNDER 4.5 wins in 2023 at DraftKings

Odds for UNDER 4.5 regular-season wins for the Indianapolis Colts in 2023 from DraftKings.