Me And The Teams I'm Picking Are 'Due' In NFL Week 9 Of Circa Million VII
Here's why I'm rolling with the Falcons, Steelers, Texans, Chiefs, and Seahawks Sunday.
The theme of my NFL Week 9 card is "they [players, teams, coaches, etc.] are due". Even though I'm .500 in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest after three straight winning weeks, I'm due some good luck because I've taken like 4-5 "bad beats" this season, and I don't have a lucky win. Meanwhile, I'm "buying low" on a few teams this week who are due for wins.
Week 8 Recap: (20-20, tied for 2,064th out of 5,684 entries).
- Green Bay Packers (-3) ✅
- Chicago Bears (+6.5) ❌
- New Orleans Saints (+3.5) ❌
- Miami Dolphins (+7.5) ✅
- New York Jets (+6.5) ✅
Week 9 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VII NFL Week 9 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
- Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
- Houston Texans (-1.5)
- Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Circa Million VII Pick #1: Falcons (+5.5) at New England Patriots
The bottom line is New England QB Drake Maye's teammates kind of suck, so if he doesn't play like John Elway, the Patriots are FUBAR. Well, Maye is due for a bad game. Objectively, he is a top-three NFL MVP candidate. Technically, Maye is the fourth betting favorite at DraftKings (+500).
Also, this spread is an overreaction to Atlanta's humiliating 34-10 loss to Miami Sunday, which I had on my Week 8 card. New England was a -2.5 favorite on the look-ahead line for Week 9. I'm ignoring their loss last week because the Falcons started backup QB Kirk Cousins, and WR Drake London was out. London and starting QB Michael Penix Jr. are expected to return this week.
While Penix isn't exactly lighting the league on fire in his second season, like Maye, Cousins is too old to be an NFL starter. Plus, London is one of the best receivers in the league. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson only got 12 touches last week, and that just can't happen. Atlanta's offense will look much better if Penix and London return, and Bijan should get more work Sunday.
Listen: The OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Week 9 Handicapping Hype Show
The Falcons have a higher yards-per-play differential and a better net early-down success rate, even though the Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Lastly, they both beat the Buffalo Bills: Atlanta won 24-14, and New England won 23-20. But the Falcons had better yards-per-play and first-down margins vs. the Bills.
Pick #2: Indianapolis Colts at Steelers (+3)
My "they are due" angles for this game are Indy's offense and QB Daniel Jones are due for a bad game, and Pittsburgh's defense will turn it around. Indianapolis looks like the greatest show on turf, and RB Jonathan Taylor is in the MVP conversation. But they've played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and eventually the Colts will have a down game. Right?
I know the Steelers' defense keeps getting crushed. However, they still have great players, such as 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt, All-Pro DT Cameron Heyward, and All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey. I'm betting these guys and Mike Tomlin will figure out how to slow the Colts down this week. Maybe Tomlin keys on the run and makes Jones beat them through the air.
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers attempts a pass vs. the Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 6 at Acrisure Stadium. (Photo Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images)
Also, Aaron Rodgers can still sling it, and Indianapolis has one of the worst pass rushes in the league. Rodgers leads the NFL in touchdown rate, and the Colts are 29th in pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN. I.e., even if their defense struggles again, Rodgers can keep the Steelers in this game. He has solid weapons, such as WR D.K. Metcalf and RB Jaylen Warren.
Finally, this line is just off by a couple of points. The Steelers closed as an expensive +2.5 home underdog vs. Green Bay last week, and Pittsburgh is a cheap +3, trending toward +3.5, at home vs. Indy. The Packers are at least 2.0 points better than the Colts on a neutral-field. Thus, the Steelers should be priced between a pick 'em and +1.5.
LISTEN to Colts-Steelers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.
Pick #3: Denver Broncos at Texans (-1.5)
The oddsmakers are saying this is a coin-flip game, and Houston is due for a close win. The Texans are 0-4 straight up and against the spread in one-score games with losses to the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they were healthy, and Seattle. Houston's expected win-loss record is 5.0-2.0 based on point differential.
Sports Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends point differential with strength of schedule. Denver has a +5.6 SRS, and the Texans have a +10.3 SRS. Granted, you have to take Houston's SRS with a pinch of salt because it clobbered the Baltimore Ravens without Lamar Jackson and the banged-up San Francisco 49ers.
Either way, I'm "selling-high" on the Broncos, who are on a five-game winning streak. Their wins include the Cincinnati Bengals with backup QB Jake Browning, the Philadelphia Eagles, whose offense has looked terrible at times this season, both cursed New York football teams by a combined three points, and the Cowboys, whose defense can't stop a nosebleed.
Nonetheless, this is a bet on Houston's defense, my favorite unit in the NFL, vs. Broncos QB Bo Nix. He’s being carried by Denver head coach Sean Payton’s playcalling and by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. But, Texans defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans can solve Payton’s scheme, and Houston’s defensive line can beat Denver’s offensive line.
Pick #4: Seahawks (-3) at Washington Commanders
I don't have a due angle for this game; I just think Seattle will wax Washington Sunday night, even with QB Jayden Daniels returning from injury. Admittedly, I gave out the Seahawks on VSIN's "Cashing Out" and my OutKick Bets Podcast partially because I thought Daniels would miss this game.
That said, I'm keeping them on my card since I was high on the Seahawks before the season and low on the Commanders. I bet Seattle to win 10+ games and Washington to miss the playoffs. Also, the Seahawks should be less popular in the contest this week because Daniels is playing, and hopefully, the Commanders will be a public 'dog Monday.
Furthermore, this is a semi-widowmaker spot for the Commanders. They just lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 28-7 on Monday Night Football earlier this week, and the Seahawks are coming off a bye, so they have extra time to rest and prepare. The short week could be tough on Washington WRs Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, who have missed time recently with injuries.
Regardless, the Seahawks can beat the Commanders at full strength. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and could be getting back two starters in the secondary, CB Devon Witherspoon and S Julian Love. Seattle has been unlucky, too. The Seahawks have the worst fumble recovery rate in the NFL, and all four of QB Sam Darnold's turnover-worthy throws have been intercepted.
Pick #5: Chiefs (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills
NOTE: My fifth pick was originally the Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) over the Dallas Cowboys. However, I paid for the Saturday "Extended Deadline" with my Las Vegas proxy for this contest for this exact situation. E.g., Arizona QB Kyler Murray was trending towards returning from injury, but the Cardinals announced Saturday afternoon backup QB Jacoby Brissett is starting again Monday.
My analysis of the Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills NFL Week 9 game for the OutKick newsletter.
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