Looking To Extend My Winning Streak In Circa Million VII: NFL Week 8

Last week was the worst 3-2 possible because it was a 5-0 blue balls. I hit all three of my picks Sunday, then went 0-2 in the Monday Night Football doubleheader in NFL Week 7. The worst part about my 0-2 Monday was that both teams’ offenses, which I bet played like sh*t, and it was brutal to watch. I guess an a**-whooping is easier to accept than a bad beat, but I’m still butt-hurt.

Week 7 Recap: 3-2 (17-18, tied for 2,433rd out of 5,685 entries).

1. Los Angeles Rams (-3) ✅
2. Chicago Bears (-4.5) ✅
3. Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) ✅
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) ❌
5. Houston Texans (+3) ❌

Week 8 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)

Circa Million VII NFL Week 8 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Green Bay Packers (-3)
2. Chicago Bears (+6.5)
3. New Orleans Saints (+3.5)
4. Miami Dolphins (+7.5)
5. New York Jets (+6.5)

Circa Million VII Pick #1: Packers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers 

Green Bay's defense is nasty, and Pittsburgh's offense is mostly "smoke and mirrors". The Packers are first in yards per play allowed and sixth in points per play allowed. They are fifth in pass-rush win rate and sixth in run-stopping win rate, according to ESPN. Green Bay held the Detroit Lions to 3.8 yards per play in Week 1 and a healthy Washington Commanders to 3.5 yards per play in Week 2. 

Also, it doesn't feel like it because the Packers have lost four straight against the spread, but QB Jordan Love is balling. He is second in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation, which, in layman's terms, is "throwing guys open and making scoring plays," and seventh in QBR without any game-breakers at receiver. 

Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love celebrates a first down vs. the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in NFL Week 7. (Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)

Pittsburgh and Green Bay have both faced the Cincinnati Bengals with QB Joe Flacco under center. The Packers beat the Bengals 6.8-4.3 in yards per play, while the Steelers lost to the Bengals 7.3-6.5. Ultimately, I make Green Bay -6.5 over Pittsburgh on a neutral field, and we are getting a good price because no one wants to fade Mike Tomlin and the Steelers at home in primetime.

Pick #2: Bears (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens 

This could easily be my first pick. However, in light of Saturday's news that Lamar Jackson will be out again Sunday, Chicago will be the most popular selection this week, and I'd prefer to zag on the contest than follow the masses. But, if I liked them when I thought Lamar would play, then I love the Bears now that they are +1.5 in the market sans Jackson, and locked at +6.5 in the contest. 

The gist of my handicap is Chicago's offense has been improving weekly under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, and Baltimore's defense hasn't been good all season. The Bears are the only team to go Over their team's points total in every game this season, and the Ravens are last in points per game allowed (32.3 PPG).

Lastly, sports betting analysts are criticizing Chicago's defense for being too reliant on turnovers and having a poor success rate. But at least the Bears are doing something right on defense. Baltimore will be starting backup QB Snoop Huntley this week. He is 5-9 as a starter with 10 interceptions and 13 fumbles. Maybe Chicago's defense can force Huntley to turn the ball over, too.

Pick #3: Buccaneers at Saints (+3.5)

Tampa's Week 8 injury report is one of the grossest for any team this season. The Bucs will be without WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, RB Bucky Irving, and pass-rusher Haason Reddick. Buccaneers Pro Bowl DT Vita Vea is "doubtful" for Sunday after missing practice Thursday and Friday. Plus, they have a short week and go on the road to play a divisional foe. 

Also, Baker Mayfield was terrible Monday in a 24-9 loss to the Detroit Lions, who were missing most of their secondary. Granted, a big reason for Baker's struggles is his WR corp is hurt, but that's the case again this week. Regardless, four of Tampa Bay's five wins this season are because of Mayfield's heroics. There is a chance his luck has run out, or the Bucs are just too injured.

New Orleans is underrated in the market. Don't get me wrong, the Saints are bad, but they lost against the spread to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 by only a half-point, should've covered vs. the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2, and their loss to Chicago last week was closer than the score indicates. If NOLA stole one of those games, its power rating would be 1.0-1.5 points higher. 

Finally, Saints QB Spencer Rattler is pretty good, and his team is mostly healthy. Rattler is 16th in QBR and the 14th-highest graded quarterback by Pro Football Focus. He has solid weapons, such as WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, RB Alvin Kamara, and Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill.

Pick #4: Dolphins (+7.5) at Atlanta Falcons 

Even though Atlanta backup QB Kirk Cousins will most likely start for an injured (allegedly) QB Michael Penix Jr., the analysis that I gave out for this game on my OutKick Bets Podcast earlier this week still holds up. Essentially, the Falcons shouldn't be more than a -5.5 favorite with a quarterback as inconsistent as Penix, and Cousins is a downgrade. 

Penix has been bad this season, and people think, "Cousins can't be that much worse". Well, I beg to differ. Before getting benched for Penix last year, Cousins threw an NFL-high 16 interceptions and had his worst QBR since becoming a starting quarterback for Washington in 2015. There is a good chance 37-year-old Cousins is too old for the NFL.

Meanwhile, this spread is an overreaction to Miami's 31-6 loss at the lowly Cleveland Browns. I'm ignoring that loss because it was rainy and windy in Cleveland, and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa always sucks in tough weather conditions. Miami was -4 in the turnover battle last week and should be better off on the Mercedes-Benz Stadium's fast track Sunday.

Pick #5: Jets (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

I misinterpreted NYJ first-year head coach Aaron Glenn's press conference gibberish and owner Woody Johnson's criticisms of QB Justin Fields. I thought the Jets would start backup QB Tyrod Taylor, who is a covering machine. Unfortunately, Tyrod isn't healthy, and like a moron, I subbed my picks before Fields was officially announced as the starter this week. 

That said, I'm more fading Cincy than betting on the sh*t-a** Jets. The Bengals are 32nd in defensive success rate, and Pro Football Focus ranks their offensive line 30th entering Week 8. A team with this bad a defense and offensive line, who is on their third quarterback, shouldn't be favored -6.5 over any team in the league. Even the dumpster-fire that is the NYJ.

Furthermore, the Jets have higher win rates across all four lines of scrimmage metrics, per ESPN, a better yard-per-play differential, and a higher net early-down success rate. NYJ's defense has played well in the last two weeks, holding the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers to 13 points each. 

The other things I'm fading here are the market's overreaction to last week's results and the narrative that the Jets have given up on Glenn. Cincinnati was a -2.5 favorite for this game before upsetting the Steelers last week, and NYJ losing to Carolina. The Jets are 0-7, and winless teams don't give up. These are professionals who are probably embarrassed to be winless.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.