Bank On Seattle Seahawks And (Gulp) Sam Darnold Exceeding Expectations In 2025

My favorite thing about the 2025 Seattle Seahawks is no one in the sports betting space is investing in them because they replaced former QB Geno Smith with QB Sam Darnold this offseason. So, Seattle's betting odds are intriguing in several DraftKings' markets, such as to win the Super Bowl (+6000), NFC (+2800), division (+500), and to make the playoffs (+170). 

That said, my favorite Seahawks' bet available is OVER 9.5 alternate wins (+165) since it's only five cents less than their odds to make the playoffs. The NFC West will be the most competitive division in the conference. Plus, 10 wins might not get you into the 2025-26 NFC playoffs because the conference is low-key deep and there are always surprise teams in the NFL. 

Last year, Seattle was a "sleeper" pick to make the postseason and to go Over its win total by a few NFL betting analysts I respect. Rightfully, people were high on the Seahawks hiring rookie head coach Mike Macdonald, the defensive whiz who had the 2022-23 Baltimore Ravens third and first in points per game allowed in his two seasons as their defensive coordinator. 

Macdonald improved Seattle's defense to 10th in EPA/play last season from 30th in 2023. Predictably, it took a little while for the Seahawks to learn Macdonald's intricate defensive game plans. But when Seattle did, it was one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is repeatable since most of the defense returns this year. 

In fact, the Seahawks will be a top-10 defense this season. I'm calling it. They have continuity, and I love when teams "run it back," and All-Pro-caliber talent on all three levels, featuring a nasty secondary and DT Leonard Williams, who ranked fourth among 118 interior defenders last year, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Hence, the elephant in the room is Darnold, who everyone thinks is a downgrade from Geno. However, despite wrongfully thinking the 2024 Minnesota Vikings would suck last season with Darnold, I'm buying stock in Seattle regardless. I cannot believe I’m saying this, considering all the trash I talked last year, but, at best, he is an upgrade and, at worst, it’s a lateral move. 

They are pretty much the same guy, but Darnold is almost seven years younger. The USC Trojan was terrible in his first six NFL seasons, and Geno didn’t become a full-time starter until his ninth season in the league. Both played well on their fourth team, and both went to their fifth team this offseason. 

Related: CRAZY QUESTION? ASKING WHETHER SAM DARNOLD WILL START IN SEATTLE IS TOTALLY FAIR

Before becoming a full-time starter, Smith threw more interceptions than touchdowns and had a 13-21 record as a starter (38.2% winning rate). Darnold wasn’t much better before going to Minnesota last year. He had a 63/56 TD/INT rate and a 21-35 record as a starter (37.5% winning rate). All this to say, "Why can't Darnold be a legit franchise quarterback if Geno can"? 

Darnold threw 35 touchdowns last year and 12 interceptions, ranked sixth in QB Rating, was tied for the second-most game-winning drives (five), and made his first Pro Bowl. Granted, the offensive line is Seattle's weakest unit, the Vikings have better wide receivers, and the Seahawks traded WR D.K. Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason. 

Yet, Metcalf is not worth the five-year, $150 million extension he signed with Pittsburgh. He's only made two Pro Bowls in six NFL seasons and routinely commits stupid personal fouls. Plus, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a baller, and maybe WR Cooper Kupp has a throwback year if he stays healthy. Either way, they have one of the best backfields in the NFL with RBs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

Also, many variables point in Seattle's favor for this upcoming season. The Seahawks went from the fourth-toughest schedule last year to the 21st-toughest this season, per the 2025 FTN Football Almanac, and they are eighth in "net rest advantage," according to Warren Sharp. Ultimately, Seattle was 10-7 last year and will be at least as good in 2025. 

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