Circa Million VII NFL Week 14 Card From A Bettor Hitting 60 Percent Of Picks This Year
After a banked win from TNF, I'm 17-4 since NFL Week 10 entering the 'Fourth Quarter' contest of the Circa Million VII.
It's officially "clutch time" in the NFL regular season with the "Fourth Quarter" contest of the Circa Million VII kicking off in Week 14. This is a way to keep people who don't have a chance to cash in the season-long contest engaged. Luckily, that doesn't apply to me. I'm 40-26 entering Sunday in Week 14, eight games back of first and one game outside the money (top-100).
5-0 in NFL Week 13: 39-26, tied for 157th out of 5,684 entries heading into Week 14
- Green Bay Packers (+2.5) ✅
- Chicago Bears (+7) ✅
- Houston Texans (+4.5) ✅
- San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) ✅
- New York Jets (+2.5) ✅
Even better, I'm almost playing with house money after my "Geoffrow Records" entry tied for fifth in the "Third Quarter" contest with 10 people. The 11-way chop netted me $910, and the Circa Million is $1,000 per entry. But I'm on an eight-week winning streak, and looking to do more damage in this contest. Without further ado, here is my NFL Week 14 card.
Week 14 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VII NFL Week 14 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
- Los Angeles Rams (-8.5)
- Detroit Lions (-3) ✅
- New York Jets (+3)
- Chicago Bears (+6.5)
- Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Circa Million VII Pick #1: Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals
My fair price for this game is "Rams -11.5," so I'm way off-market. And that was before Arizona's final injury report was released Friday. It's so long it would be quicker to tell you who is playing for the Cardinals rather than who isn't. Now, the only way Arizona keeps this within 10 points is if unpredictable things happen like injuries, random turnovers, and special teams blunders.
Pick #2: Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3) ✅
Thursday Night Football continues to be a cash cow for me. I'm now 20-3 on TNF games used in the Circa Million contest since 2023 after Detroit beat Dallas 44-30 this past Thursday. There was no luck involved either; according to Pro Football Focus's Timo Riske, the Lions beat the Cowboys 33-24 on the "noise-canceled score," which looks at raw efficiency.
My analysis of the Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 14 for the OutKick newsletter.
Pick #3: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3)
The wrong team is favored here. Miami closed as -2.5 home favorites in a 27-21 win over NYJ in Week 4. But the Dolphins had every situational edge, including an extra rest and prep off a Thursday-night cover vs. the Buffalo Bills the week prior. Even with Miami WR Tyreek Hill on the field, the Jets "won the box score": 7.1-5.4 in yards per play and converted four more first downs (23-19).
Furthermore, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa in the Northeast in December is always a question, and his current win streak isn’t impressive. Tua hasn’t thrown for more than 173 passing yards in any of Miami’s three straight wins, and I trust Jets QB Tyrod Taylor more than Tagovailoa right now, especially with how this matchup played out earlier this season.
Lastly, the Jets have a massive edge on special teams. Pro Football Focus ranks the NYJ's special teams fourth in the NFL, which makes them underrated, while Miami's special teams is the 30th-graded unit. Defense wins championships, but special teams win games. Especially, tight, cold-weather divisional games between teams with below-average passing attacks.
Pick #4: Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
I’ve had a good read on both of these teams all year. I'm 4-0 betting on or against Green Bay in Circa and 4-1 on Chicago, and this sets up as a spot to fade the Packers after everything broke perfectly for them in their 31-24 win in Detroit Thanksgiving.
More importantly, the betting market continues to disrespect the Bears. They are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) but are still power-rated worse than a league-average team. Here's an idea: Maybe Chicago is good. Bears QB Caleb Williams has improved under rookie head coach Ben Johnson, an offensive whiz who stopped Caleb from taking stupid sacks and has revamped their blocking.
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams firing a pass vs. the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. (Photo credit: Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
In contrast, Green Bay is 5-7 ATS, yet has been upgraded nearly two points since the start of the season by respected NFL analysts, such as Aaron Schatz, Pro Football Focus, etc. Also, the Packers have only covered a spread higher than -3 once all season: 1-6 ATS in those spots with weird losses to the Cleveland Browns (13-10) and Carolina Panthers (16-13).
Ultimately, Green Bay has the fourth-highest rushing rate in the league, and it's tough to win by 7+ points if you aren't airing it out. Plus, Green Bay QB Jordan Love looks like a superstar one week and a league-average starter the next. That inconsistency with a -6.5 favorite feels like another "sell-high" spot for the Packers.
Pick #5: Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
This is a "good news, bad news" situation. Bad news: Washington announced Friday QB Jayden Daniels will return this week, after I submitted my five NFL Week 14 picks for the Circa. Good news: Since Thursday's release locks in all the spreads, the Commanders will likely be a top-five consensus pick, which typically doesn't perform well.
Nonetheless, Minnesota is at the bottom of my Circa card because I knew Daniels could play Sunday, and if he did, Washington would close as road favorites. Yet, as I wrote and said on my OutKick Bets podcast and VSIN's TV channel, the Vikings at a pick ‘em was one of my first bets placed this week, and I'm hoping Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense rattles a rusty Daniels.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.