Gobble Up These Five NFL Week 13, Thanksgiving And Black Friday Best Bets

Usually, I wait until later in the week before making my NFL bets. But I got in the lab earlier this week since there are three games Thanksgiving and another Black Friday. And at like 1 a.m. PT Wednesday, after looking at the Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate, I figured "Why not just find all of my picks for NFL Week 13?" 

More importantly, I'm on a heater and I'm striking while the iron is hot. I've hit the last six NFL bets given out in the OutKick newsletter and have a seven-week winning streak in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. I know writing that will jinx me. Kind of like how no one on a baseball team points out when a pitcher has a no-hitter. It's just bad juju. 

Get 15% off sitewide at the OutKick.com store through 12/3

I'm so confident in how well I'm seeing the board lately that I'll tempt the gambling gods with all that "win streak" talk. That said, here’s where I'm betting my money is for NFL Week 13. (Also, I'm using these as my five picks for this week in the Circa Million VII). 

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Detroit Lions, Thanksgiving 

My analysis of the Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Thanksgiving 2025 in NFL Week 13 for the OutKick newsletter. 

Chicago Bears (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles, Black Friday 

I’m fading the Eagles here, and it starts with how bad that 24-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week actually was. Philly blew a 21-point lead and lost first downs 25-19 and yards per play 7.0 to 5.8. Philadelphia should've buried Dallas with that defense and Saquon Barkley. On top of that, everything went right for the Eagles, and they still lost. 

• Philly WR A.J. Brown had his best game of the season: 8 catches for 110 yards and one touchdown.
• Dallas Pro Bowl WR CeeDee Lamb had three drops.
• The Eagles got a gift roughing-the-punter call that led to a touchdown.
• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw a red-zone interception.
• Dallas RB KaVontae Turpin just dropped the ball on Philadelphia's 32-yard line with no contact.
• Cowboys all-time great PK Brandon Aubrey even missed a field goal.

Big picture: Philly's offense just isn’t as good this season. The Eagles have only one win by more than eight points all year (New York Giants at home in Week 8). Offense is 3–4 times more predictive than defense, and Chicago's offense is much more consistent. The Bears are 9th in offensive EPA per play (Eagles 15th) and 11th in success rate (Eagles 24th), per Sumer Sports.

The market still won’t upgrade Chicago. The preseason lookahead line was "Bears +7," and it hasn't changed even though both teams are 8-3 straight up and 7-4 against the spread (ATS). Chicago could also be getting cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back. This is a play on the Bears and a fade of the overrated Eagles. 

Houston Texans (+4.5) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 

Speaking of "overrated," Indy will fall back to the pack in the AFC South, and Houston could even run the Colts down to win the division. The Texans have a top-three defense in the NFL, and I'm not a believer in Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones. He took a combined 12 sacks vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons, and Houston has a fiercer pass-rush than those teams. 

Also, the Texans have to be pumped after winning their last three games with backup QB Davis Mills. With first-string QB C.J. Stroud most likely returning for this game, the vibes in Houston's locker room must be high. Ultimately, the Texans are a team trending up, the Colts have peaked, and this number is on the wrong side of "+3". 

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns, Sunday 

I'm going into ultra-contrarian mode for this game. Here's a list of the things I'm fading in Niners-Browns: 

• Cleveland QB Shedeur Sanders is coming off a win against the god-awful Las Vegas Raiders, who might be the sorriest franchise in the NFL right now. That was more of a Raiders' loss than a Browns' win. Sanders had an 8.7 QBR (out of 100), and Cleveland had just 11 first downs. People are thinking, "Hmm, maybe Sanders doesn't suck". Spoiler alert: He does, and against a competent opponent, he will struggle.
• San Francisco QB Brock Purdy played awful in a 20-9 win over the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football earlier this week, but I'm not overreacting. I'm not the biggest Purdy fan, but he has game-breakers, such as RB Christian McCaffrey and TE George Kittle. Plus, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football, and they have a proven track record together.

• The conventional wisdom of betting the underdog in a game with a low total. Niners-Browns has a 36.5 total at most sportsbooks because it could be a bad-weather game, so most bettors think it'll be tougher for San Francisco to cover the spread since the market expects fewer points to be scored. Logically, that makes sense. But betting on football would be much easier if simple logic always held up.
• Browns pass-rusher Myles Garrett's dominance. Don't get me wrong, Garrett is rightfully a lock to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Yet, 49ers LT Trent Williams is one of maybe two offensive linemen in football who can keep Garrett from wrecking a game. If Garrett doesn't have 3+ sacks, Cleveland probably ain't winning.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+2.5), Sunday 

New Orleans closed as -1.5 home favorites vs. Atlanta, so the market is saying the Saints are 4.0 points better than the Jets on a neutral field. I'm calling, "Bullsh*t". The Jets are bad, but they aren't that bad. Per Sūmer Sports, NYJ is fifth in defensive success rate, and Jets QB Tyrod Taylor has one of the best ATS records in the NFL. 

Lastly, both teams' Week 12 results were misleading: The Falcons beat NOLA 24-10, and NYJ lost to the Baltimore Ravens 23-10. However, according to Pro Football Focus's "noise-canceled score," which looks at just raw efficiency and removes luck factors, Atlanta beat New Orleans 15-14, and the Jets only lost to Baltimore 18-16 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.