Locked And Loaded: Two Early NFL Week 14 Best Bets, Value Plays

Underdogs gave bettors rabies in NFL Week 13. They infected the Circa Survivor pool with all four favorites getting upset Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Then, Sunday, the highest power-rated team in the market, the Los Angeles Rams, lost as -10.5 favorites to the Carolina Panthers. It was pure carnage. 

Fortunately, I stayed out of harm's way and went 5-0 on my Circa Million VII card in Week 13. It was my eighth consecutive winning week in the NFL. So, like last week, I'm starting my betting process early and firing on a few NFL Week 14 games before the market moves spreads, and influences my handicapping. 

That said, here are the NFL Week 14 bets I have locked in as of Tuesday. 

Early NFL Week 14 Best Bets 

• Minnesota Vikings -110 moneyline, up to -2.5, vs. Washington Commanders via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Los Angeles Rams -8 (-110), up to -9.5, at Arizona Cardinals via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

Commanders at Vikings (-110)

Washington went from a +6 home underdog vs. the Denver Broncos last week to opening as a -1.5 road favorite in Minnesota, and we’ve now crashed back to a pick’em at the time of writing. The lookahead was Vikings -2.5. That’s a massive swing for the Commanders, who are still flawed, just because they covered in a 27-26 overtime loss to Denver on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. 

I'm fading Washington after a gutsy primetime cover and buying Minnesota after hitting rock bottom in a 26-0 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks on the road Sunday. But context matters: The Vikings were starting third-string rookie QB Max Brosmer, who went from five college seasons at New Hampshire to a spot start for a concussed QB J.J. McCarthy vs. an elite defense. 

Meanwhile, the Commanders got destroyed 38-14 at home in Week 9 by that same Seattle team with QB Jayden Daniels starting. Sure, the final margin wasn't bigger, but the Seahawks were up 28-0 in the first half. Daniels has been out with an injury since and is inching closer to returning, but still hasn't been officially ruled in, whereas McCarthy is expected to play this week. 

Frankly, if Jayden comes back this week, I don't love my bet because the Vikings will probably close as home underdogs. However, Daniels might be rusty in his first game back from injury, and the only way Washington should be road favorites in this spot is if Jayden is 100% because, underneath the noise, Minnesota profiles better. 

The Vikings are even in net yards per play (0.0), while the Commanders are sitting at -0.7 (ranked 30th in the league). Minnesota also has a higher net in early-down success rate, which is predictive because the full playbook is typically available on first and second down. 

Both teams have faced brutal schedules, and both are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), so neither is some hidden juggernaut. This comes down to price and profile. The Commanders are being taxed for a strong performance in primetime. The Vikings are being discounted off a throwaway game with a third-stringer. This is the essence of "buy-high" and "sell-low". 

Rams (-8) at Cardinals

The Rams are in a perfect buy-the-dip spot, laying -8 at Arizona. Teams facing the Carolina Panthers have been undervalued all year. Squads are 5-1 ATS with a +7.1 spread differential the week after losing to the Panthers. LAR fits that exact profile after a brutal 32-28 loss as -10.5 road favorites at Carolina. 

The market sees "you lost to the Panthers, you must be trash." In reality, it’s been the opposite; Carolina has been an underdog in every win and consistently mispriced. Plus, that Rams loss was flukey as hell. They out-gained the Panthers 7.4-5.8 in yards per play, won true first downs 21-17, and had more red-zone drives (6-1).

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford making pre-snap adjustments vs. the Carolina Panthers in NFL Week 13. (Photo credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images)

Matthew Stafford, the NFL MVP betting favorite, threw a pick-six, an interception in the end zone, and fumbled at Carolina's 22-yard line. The Panthers' game-winning touchdown was a 43-yard 4th-and-2 pass with 6:43 left. If LAR gets that stop, they’re still live to cover the -10.5. 

Now they get the Cardinals, who are at least two points worse than Carolina on a neutral-field, making this spread off by 4+ points. The Cardinals have already been blasted 44-22 by Seattle and 41-22 by the San Francisco 49ers in back-to-back weeks earlier this year. Ultimately, the Rams -8 is a bet on regression, reality, and a talent gap the spread hasn’t fully captured.

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