'Revenge, Let-Down, Statement' Games In My Circa Million VII NFL Week 11 Picks

I was so jacked about going 4-1 last week in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest that I stayed up until 3 a.m. Monday morning after Sunday Night Football, and dug into Week 11. I'm probably jinxing myself by saying this, but I'm seeing the board well. Philly leads my card on a "Statement Sunday," with revenge angles and a let-down game rounding out the five picks. 

Circa Million VII NFL Week 11 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
2. Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
3. Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
4. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
5. Chicago Bears (+2.5)

Week 11 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)

Even if I can't finish in the top 100 of the Circa Million, which is where the payouts begin, I can still make money in this contest in the third and fourth quarterlies. The third quarter began last week and ends in Week 13. It pays out the top-five records over that span, with first place winning $150,000, and I'm on a heater. That said, let's get a sixth straight winning week. 

Week 10 Recap: 4-1 (27-23, tied for 1,060th out of 5,684 entries).

1. Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) ✅
2. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) ✅
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) ❌
4. Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) ✅
5. New York Jets (+2.5) ✅

Circa Million VII Pick #1: Detroit Lions at Eagles (-2.5)

This will be a Statement Game for Philly (7-2). Detroit is getting more hype, but Philadelphia is the reigning Super Bowl champion. Frankly, anything below "Eagles -3" at home vs. anyone is disrespectful, and they will put it on the Lions (6-3) Sunday. Lincoln Financial Field is one of the toughest places to play, and Detroit QB Jared Goff notoriously struggles outdoors the colder it gets. 

Listen: The OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Week 11 Deep Dive

Philly has the better quarterback, coach, and defense. It is better in the trenches on both sides of the ball and has more game-breakers on offense. Lastly, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the defense playing well. They picked up a young, talented pass rusher, Jaelen Phillips, at the trade deadline, and the Lions' offensive line is weaker this season. 

Pick #2: Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

This is a Let-Down Game for Atlanta, whose season ended with a 31-26 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in overtime last week in Berlin. The Falcons need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to start losing games to win the division, and Carolina (5-3) beat Atlanta in their first meeting this season. Forget the wild card; the Falcons are 3-6, and there are too many good NFC teams. 

Plus, Atlanta is a bad favorite because it struggles in high-leverage situations, which is where you create margin. The Falcons are 26th in third-down conversion differential and 23rd in red-zone scoring differential. That falls on both Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. and head coach Raheem Morris. Whether it's bad coaching or quarterbacking, the Falcons crap their pants on offense. 

The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons play for the second time this season in NFL Week 11. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Meanwhile, the Panthers are second in net early-down success rate (EDSR), behind the Los Angeles Rams, and Atlanta is 19th. EDSR is predictive because the whole playbook is open on first and second downs. So, not only are the Falcons terrible on late downs, but Carolina is better on early downs. 

I'm fading the market's overreaction to the Panthers losing 17-7 to the last-place New Orleans Saints last week, and this being a Revenge Game for the Falcons after getting crushed by Carolina 30-0 in Week 3. Finally, you just have to ignore the Panthers' losses. They are 4-0 against the spread after a loss this season with a +14.1 spread differential. 

Pick #3: Washington Commanders vs. Dolphins (-2.5) 

I've already discussed why I'm taking the Dolphins (3-7) in this game on Wednesday. The bottom line: Miami is trending up and QB Tua Tagovailoa can torch Washington's abysmal defense, while the Commanders (3-7) are trending down without QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin. Washington hasn't hit its "market low" yet, but it will after this week. 

Pick #4: Chargers (-3) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a Revenge Game for the Chargers (7-3). They choked away a 27-point lead in a 31-30 loss to Jacksonville in the 2023 AFC Wild Card Round. You might dismiss that by saying, "Both teams had different coaching staffs." However, four of LAC's captains this season played in that game: QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, pass-rusher Khalil Mack, and S Derwin James. 

There's no way those guys don't remember that loss. No bulls*it, it was one of the worst losses I've ever seen, and I bet Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is reminding them in practice to make sure they are up for this game. They have a bye next week, and this game has massive playoff implications. 

Also, the Jaguars (5-4) are fugazi. Their success is so dependent on turnovers, which isn't sustainable, and QB Trevor Lawrence sucks. He is only playing better than two guys this season: Tennessee Titans rookie QB Cam Ward and Cleveland Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. The Chargers have a good defense with a few game-wreckers, like Derwin and Mack, and again, Lawrence sucks. 

Ultimately, the Chargers have a better quarterback, defense, and coaching staff, full motivation, and can "empty the tank" Sunday, so to speak, because they don't have to play next week. 

Pick #5: Bears (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings 

NOTE: My fifth pick was originally the Los Angeles Rams (-3) over the Seattle Seahawks. This is real weak sh*t by me, for which I apologize. On this week's OutKick Bets Podcast, I had a heavy lean towards Minnesota. Now, not only am I flip-flopping to Chicago, but I'm doing it after publishing my picks. Again, my bad. 

I'm switching to the Bears (6-3) because I think they'll be a contrarian play in the contest, and the Seahawks-Rams is too coin-flippy for me. They are two evenly matched, except for special teams, where Seattle has a decisive edge because LAR's special teams are a disaster. 

Chicago should've, could've won its Week 1 game vs. the Vikings (4-5). The Bears led by 11 points entering the fourth quarter, then Minnesota QB J.J. McCarthy erupted for three touchdowns. McCarthy looked terrible in the first three quarters and hasn't played well since. 

Furthermore, many of the Vikings are dealing with nagging injuries, and they won't have pass-rusher Jonathan Greenard and C Ryan Kelly. I've heard smart people I respect speculate that Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson isn't 100%, either. Jefferson is averaging a career-worst 76.2 receiving yards per game and a 47.6% success rate. 

But, at the end of the day, this comes down to my love for Bears QB Caleb Williams and belief that he and first-year head coach Ben Johnson will be a force. Caleb has weapons to work with, Chicago's offensive line is elite, and Johnson is one of the best offensive minds in football. I'm calling it: This will be a Statement Game for the Bears. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.