Chasing A Fifth Straight Winning Week In The Circa Million VII: NFL Week 10
Here's why I clicked the Falcons, Chargers, Jaguars, Rams, and Jets this week.
This week’s card leans on value in underdogs and a couple of strong quarterback matchups, starting with the Atlanta Falcons getting points overseas when they face the Indianapolis Colts in Berlin, and concluding with the Sunday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers. Here’s the full breakdown of my NFL Week 10 Circa Million VII picks.
Circa Million VII NFL Week 10 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
- Atlanta Falcons (+6.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
- Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
- New York Jets (+2.5)
Week 10 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Even though last week was my fourth consecutive winning week in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest, I left some meat on the bone, so to speak. Initially, I published my weekly picks column with the Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football in Week 9.
Listen: The OutKick Bets Podcast's NFL Week 10 Betting Primer Ft. Geoff Fienberg, David Troy
But when Arizona starting QB Kyler Murray was ruled out Saturday, I switched my final pick to the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) on the road against the Buffalo Bills. Well, the Cardinals beat Dallas outright, Buffalo upset KC, and I cost myself a 4-1. Fortunately, that won't happen again in Week 10 since I already subbed my picks before this article was published.
Week 9 Recap: (23-22, tied for 1,591st out of 5,684 entries).
- Falcons (+5.5) ✅
- Steelers (+3) ✅
- Houston Texans (-1.5) ❌
- Seattle Seahawks (-3) ✅
- Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) ❌
Circa Million VII Pick #1: Falcons (+6.5) vs. Colts
I don't like fading and backing the same teams in back-to-back weeks, but this spread is ridiculous. Atlanta was +5.5 on the road in its 24-23 loss to the New England Patriots last week. Now, the Falcons are +6 on a neutral field in Berlin vs. an Indy team that has a worse quarterback, coach, and defense than New England.
Atlanta is eighth in net yards per play vs. the 11th-toughest schedule, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Falcons are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog with upset victories over the Minnesota Vikings (22-6 on the road) and the Buffalo Bills (24-14) on Monday Night Football. The Patriots were the first team to throw for 200+ yards vs. Atlanta.
Ultimately, the Colts are overrated and will fall back to the pack when they play tougher teams after their Week 11 bye. Indianapolis has played the 30th-toughest schedule, per PFF, and its best win was the Chargers. (I'm not counting Indy's win vs. the Broncos in Week 2 because of that bogus flag on Denver's missed field goal, resulting in a do-over, which it made).
Pick #2: Steelers at Chargers (-2.5)
I haven't heard anyone say they were picking the Chargers this week. They lost starting LT Joe Alt to a season-ending injury, and Pittsburgh's defense played its best game of the season in a 27-17 upset win over the Colts in Week 9. Nevertheless, LAC head coach Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert have all week to figure out how to overcome their banged-up offensive line.
Meanwhile, I'm not ready to say the Steelers fixed their defense because of one good game vs. Indy. Four quarterbacks have thrown for more than 300 yards against Pittsburgh, including Minnesota Vikings backup QB Carson Wentz, Cleveland Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, and Colts QB Daniel Jones, who I'm not convinced won't turn into a pumpkin later this season.
If those guys can throw the ball on the Steelers, Herbert certainly can too. He is a fringe NFL MVP contender, and the Chargers have a solid WR corps. LAC's defense is better than Pittsburgh's, and Harbaugh is a warlord who cancels out the Mike Tomlin voodoo. My point is, my fair is "Chargers -3.5" because they have the better quarterback and defense, and the coaching matchup is a draw.
Pick #3: Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans
First, and foremost, C.J. Stroud has a concussion and isn't playing. He got knocked out of last week's game vs. the Denver Broncos and didn't return. Houston's offense fell off a cliff when Stroud couldn't play. Backup QB Davis Mills averaged 4.6 yards per pass vs. Denver last week, and the Texans didn't score a touchdown in their 18-15 loss to the Broncos.
Also, Jaguars LB Devin Lloyd should return this week after missing the last two games with an injury. Lloyd is a legit game-wrecker, who is PFF's top-graded linebacker. Before his injury, Lloyd was leading the NFL with four interceptions, and he had that incredible pick-six that swung the game in Jacksonville's 32-28 win vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5.
So, not only are the Jaguars getting back the quarterback of their defense, Lloyd, but the Texans are losing their franchise quarterback. As long as Trevor Lawrence doesn't commit any back-breaking turnovers, which is definitely in the range of outcomes, the Jaguars will hold the Texans to 17 or fewer points.
Even if Houston's world-class defense crushes Jacksonville's offense, this should be a field-goal game, and Jaguars PK Cam Little is in field-goal range as soon as he enters the stadium. Little bombed a record-setting 68-yard field goal in Jacksonville's 30-29 overtime win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and Houston also plays in a dome.
The Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10 earlier this season, and Houston's offensive ceiling with a second-string quarterback is so much lower. Jacksonville's offense has a franchise quarterback (arguably), who's a former first overall pick, with a good running game, and a No. 1 wide receiver, Thomas, who looked like a game-breaker as a rookie.
Pick #4: Rams (-4.5) at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco's 26-23 upset win vs. LAR on Thursday Night Football in overtime earlier this season still pains me. It knocked me out of the Circa Survivor, which had an $18+ million prize pool. However, despite that soul-crushing loss, the Rams were an auto-bet for me this week because the Niners got dumb-lucky in their first meeting. It was more of a Rams' loss than a 49ers' win.
LAR had two stupid fumbles inside San Francisco's 25-yard line, including Rams RB Kyren Williams' fumble near the goal line with a chance to win the game in the final two minutes. Plus, it was a short week, Niners backup QB Mac Jones played out of his a**, Kyle Shanahan came up with a good game-plan, and sh*t happens in football.
But, on paper, the Rams are the best team in the NFL and are healthy on both sides of the ball. They have the "Simple Rating System," which blends point differential and strength of schedule. Matthew Stafford is PFF's top-graded quarterback, and he leads the league in passing touchdowns (21) and passing yards per game.
Lastly, home-field advantage doesn't matter as much as the market is factoring into these odds. The Rams were -8.5 favorites at home vs. the 49ers in Week 5. This week, LAR is just -5, and they don't have a legitimate home-field advantage in the first place, so they aren't losing much by going on the road. Hell, Stafford uses a silent count at home when the Niners visit anyway.
Pick #5: Cleveland Browns at Jets (+2.5)
The bottom line: I'm fading Cleveland rookie QB Dillon Gabriel as a road favorite against any non-Big Ten team. I understand the Jets are bad and just won their first game after losing their first seven. But Gabriel is the worst quarterback in the NFL, statistically, and the Browns' WR corps is a bottom-five unit in the league.
When you dig into these teams, NYJ just looks better. Cleveland is 30th in net early-down success rate, which is predictive because the full playbook is available on early downs. Somehow, Jets QB Justin Fields hasn't thrown an interception, and they are eighth in net early-down success rate. NYJ are better than the Browns in high-leverage situations (third-down and the red zone).
The New York Jets host the Cleveland Browns at MetLife Stadium in NFL Week 10. (Photo credit: Yannick Peterhans-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Furthermore, this line movement is an overreaction to the Jets selling their best defensive players at the trade deadline. They traded All-Pro CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams earlier this week, and the market bet Cleveland up to road favorites. Those aren't huge losses because the Jets' defense sucked with them. They've given up 30+ points four times this season.
Regardless, NYJ is 4-4 ATS and the Browns are 3-5 ATS. Because they were the NFL's last winless team this year, the Jets were the laughingstock of the league. Yet, betting on the Browns every game this season would've lost you more money than betting on the Jets. And that's the most important thing to me.
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